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Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
...by the very end of the forecast period Wilma is expected to be encountering westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico that should force a fairly sharp right turn. How sharp a turn Wilma takes is obviously of interest to all along the eastern Gulf of Mexico...but it is far too early to identify specific areas at greatest risk.
As long as she wastes her energy on Cuba, I'm okay with that :-)
366 URNT12 KNHC 172153 CCA VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 17/21:32:50Z B. 15 deg 46 min N 079 deg 53 min W C. 850 mb 1335 m D. 40 kt E. 050 deg 031 nm F. 141 deg 045 kt G. 053 deg 021 nm H. 989 mb I. 17 C/ 1522 m J. 20 C/ 1526 m K. 19 C/ NA L. OPEN W M. E05/18/8 N. 12345/ 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0324A WILMA OB 16 CCA MAX FL WIND 51 KT SE QUAD 20:30:30 Z RAGGED EYE WALL
8 pm intermediate advisory due shortly.
...Wilma nearly stationary but expected to turn westward...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.7 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 265 miles... 425 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 225 miles... 360 km... east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has become nearly stationary... but a motion toward the west is expected to begin later tonight or on Tuesday. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr... with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Wilma could become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.20 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...15.7 N... 79.9 W. Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
This thing looks to be going right between Yucatan and Cuba, then slicing Florida right down the middle. Bad Wilma!
I got a feeling this thing is going to fizzle,,don't ask me why, just a feeling. But I also think the panhandle is gonna be the target.
Man, I am suddenly feeling ill again. This hurricane season is starting to remind me of the stock market.
A whole lot of us hope you are correct.
Good Luck, NN.
Thanks. Not liking anything about the forecast this evening.
bttt
Thanks, as always, for the thread, NN!
Larry Cosgrove Discussion on Wilma (I know some here follow him):
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=58684
Too busy to focus on the tropics myself... looks like a nasty storm possible for FL though, maybe on up the east coast as well. I'll try to check in from time to time.
I hope she doesn't take the no phase track in Cosgrove's graphic. That'll put her right on top of me.
Thanks, FRiend. :o(
Thank you very much. Hope she doesn't go full phase - puts her right on top of me. Oh well, maybe she will lose her punch by then.
...Wilma steadily strengthening and beginning to drift westward...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.8 north... longitude 80.2 west or about 250 miles... 405 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 205 miles... 335 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma is moving toward the west near 2 mph... 4 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue overnight followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest on Tuesday. However... steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph... 100 km/hr... with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and Wilma could become a hurricane on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles... 110 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...15.8 N... 80.2 W. Movement toward...west near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 65 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
Local Tampa Bay news tonight predicts the storm may make landfall south of us.
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