http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html
Posted on 10/16/2005 6:06:26 PM PDT by securityMama
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. INDEED...THEY HAVE YET TO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY HOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE THE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED. WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CORE. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...
(Excerpt) Read more at nhc.noaa.gov ...
We have to excerpt the NHC?
Breaking News: Nothing has changed.
headed to mexico.
Nice discussion about this going on over here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1503108/posts
I'm not sure about that....I checked "excerpt" because I've never done this kind of post before. The nhc discussions can be rather lengthy. Having been in the path of Katrina, I'm tuned into storm watching these days!
Accuweather thinks heading for Florida.
lol@accuweather.
yes...they are more likely to get subscriptions if they have it hitting florida as a cat 5 like they do every storm.
"MAJOR HURRICANE LIKELY TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST GULF, FLORIDA LATE WEEK.
"[This] post has to do with the hurricane that will develop. This has been well telegraphed by the pattern, and the chance that Florida gets hit by a major hurricane this [next] weekend is growing."
ruh roh
The Friday forecast is further to the west than the forecast I saw this morning.
WILMA!!!,,,, Yaba Daba DOOOooooo...
It's true that hurricane watching is addictive, and that FR is a good place to do it. I'm pretty much of a hurricane junky myself, although I'm scared of them.
I absolutely refuse to be spanked by a Wilma. Die, Wilma, die.
UKMET and GFDL computer models have best history of success in predicting paths, strengths.
Actually, Tom Terry at WFTV is the best in the world. Guy is uncanny at looking 4-5-6, even 10 days out.
I'd be interested: is he in the studio on Sunday nights for an 11pm look?
We tend to obsess here. The good news with this is that Wilma-to-be is looking like a slow mover -- the info I'm reading suggests that it will take the whole week to get up to the Gulf and threaten any US position. The bad news? If it takes that long, all of these model projections will flip a dozen times and panic everybody from Galveston to Miami.
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