Posted on 10/15/2005 10:34:05 PM PDT by Termite_Commander
The San Francisco Bay area has a 1 percent chance of a magnitude-7 or greater earthquake every year and a 25 percent chance that one will occur within two decades, according to a new computer forecast.
The Virtual California program was developed by John Rundle at the University of California at Davis with the help of scientists at NASA. It uses methods similar to weather forecasting, Rundle said.
The model considers 650 segments representing the major fault systems in California, including the San Andreas fault responsible for the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The simulation takes into account the gradual movement of faults and how they interact with each other.
The researchers determine that major quakes in the Bay Area occur at an average interval of 101 years. The simulation data indicates a 25 percent chance of another such earthquake in the next 20 years, a 50 percent chance in the next 45 years and a 75 percent chance by 2086.
The forecast was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey issued a comprehensive report stating a 70 percent probability that one or more earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 or larger would strike the San Francisco Bay Area during the next 30 years. Such a quake would hold potential for widespread damage.
Earlier this year, another group of scientists calculated a 20 to 70 percent probability that Southern California will be hit by a large earthquake in the next 30 years.
Geologists caution that earthquake prediction is in its infancy.
I place 10 bucks on the fact that it occurs in the next 5 years!! :)
I can dream can't I!
More likely Mass looting.
LOL!!!!!!!
where abouts in england?
Yeah, that'll work.
england=England
Surrey.
Have not been to that area yet.. never been further south then London, but a great country none the less.. Great people too.. at least the ones I've met here, and when I was over there.
More like mass "redecorating"........
(Denny Crane: "I like nature. Don't talk to me about the environment".)
Here's a somewhat related thread from a day or so ago..
CA: 3D Geologic and Seismic Velocity Model of the San Francisco Bay Region - USGS ^
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1502569/posts
No, you may not! I live 12 miles from SF..please do not wish such misery on me...booo hooo hhoooo...
I believe that before such an event, walking papers would be issued--- GO FORTH YOUNG MAN......yeahh I get it, I don't look good as a statue of salt...got it...which way to safety?
I'm with you - point me to the casino what will take a wager on this.
Oh, there are none? Makes one wonder if the bookies know more then the geologists!
:)
Sorry forgot there are some freepers in the zone of the enemy.....
Actually I have been to San Fran many times and wish no ill upon the city itself.. it is a nice place to visit..
Way to safety... West to Arizona... just careful whose following you... :)
The area is not so bad...haha...of course there are way too many lunatics,
There is also lots of cool folks, probably just like where you are. IF GOD issues the order, I hope that I am on the "memo" list...LOL
Ping
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