Posted on 10/15/2005 9:31:35 PM PDT by bd476
Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Caymans
Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Cayman Islands; Residents Begin Preparing for Worst
By JAY EHRHART
The Associated Press
GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands - A tropical storm warning was issued for the Cayman Islands on Saturday and residents, many of whom had not removed the hurricane shutters from earlier storms this season, began preparing for the worst.
The system could become Tropical Storm Wilma on Sunday, which would make it the 21st named storm of the season, tying the record for the most storms in an Atlantic season, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said.
The only other time that many storms have formed since record keeping began 154 years ago was in 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt was president and the United States was in the midst of the Great Depression.
At 11 p.m. EDT, the tropical depression was about 215 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and about 125 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, forecasters said. It was moving southwest at 3 mph with sustained winds near 30 mph. Depressions become tropical storms when their winds reach 39 mph.
Long term forecasts show the storm would likely move in a general westward direction for the next three days, then turn to the north, possibly as a hurricane.
A hurricane watch was issued for the Cayman Islands, meaning hurricane conditions could be felt there within 36 hours.
The depression is expected to bring 3 to 5 inches of rain over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, with as much as 10 inches possible in some areas, forecasters said.
In the Cayman Islands, 51-year-old Susan Craig was ready.
"I still have all the supplies from the previous storms this season, basically a lot peanut M&M's, so I am ready just in case," she said.
The chairman of the Cayman Islands' National Hurricane Center, Donovan Ebanks, said authorities had been monitoring the weather for several days.
"Because of where it is, and the fact that it is projected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow and possibly a hurricane in a couple of days, we've decided to go ahead and issue a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch," he said.
In Jamaica, officials issued a flash flood warning for northwestern parts of the island. Jamaica's office of disaster preparedness said several businesses had been flooded in Montego Bay.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
On the Net:
National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
True, LOL! Also love your tagline! What made you th
000
WTNT34 KNHC 161737
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005
...Depression meandering in the Northwest Caribbean...Reconnaissance
Aircraft to arrive shortly...
A Tropical Storm warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four
was located near Latitude 17.3 North... Longitude 79.3 West or
about 195 miles... 315 KM... Southeast of Grand Cayman.
The depression has been meandering for the past several hours.
while a generally Westward drift is expected over the next 24
hours...steering currents remain extremely weak and some erratic
motion during the next day or two is possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...with higher
gusts. Conditions are favorable for the Depression to become a
Tropical Storm later today or tonight.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 MB...29.59 inches.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica...with isolated totals
of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...17.3 n... 79.3 w. movement
...stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 MPH. Minimum central pressure...1002 MB.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
$$
Vortex Data Message
000
URNT12 KNHC 161834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/18:19:40Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 14 kt
E. 290 deg 090 nm
F. 055 deg 014 kt
G. 305 deg 094 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 301 m
J. 24 C/ 366 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 14 KT NW QUAD 14:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SCF CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
they only found 14 KT winds at flight level of 1500 FT. makes me wonder....
Take a look at the unorganized system here: Tropical Storms GOES Floater Infrared Image
Just a projection on their part. - Tom
initial 16/1500z 17.1n 79.3w 30 kt
12hr VT 17/0000z 17.1n 79.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 17/1200z 17.2n 80.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 18/0000z 17.3n 80.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 18/1200z 17.7n 81.2w 65 kt (74 mph) mid-day Tuesday
72hr VT 19/1200z 18.5n 82.5w 80 kt
96hr VT 20/1200z 20.5n 84.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 21/1200z 23.5n 84.5w 95 kt
Thank you for posting that link, Libtoken. That does not good at all.
yeah...
But it's sitting over very HOT water....
I hope what happens isn't what I THINK may happen, which could be bad, but this kinda feels a bit like Charley given location and current projections....
Oh how I hope they are wrong.
I think I'll call my daughter and see what she has to say.
She lives on Grand Cayman.
Onyx, I thought she had moved away from there permanently. :-(
It's sunny on Grand Cayman, not windy but she expects rain because she looked on the weather map...lol.
Too late. I already called.
She said the storm will have to turn North to hurt them.
She'll call later. My phone card needs more money.
Oh good, well let's go with sunny and light rain to come. :-)
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005
...Aircraft data indicate Depression has not strengthened...
A Tropical Storm warning and a hurricane watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four
was located near Latitude 17.7 North... Longitude 79.6 West or
about 150 miles... 245 KM... Southeast of Grand Cayman.
The depression is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 2 MPH
... 4 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next
24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and some erratic
motion during the next day or two is possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a Tropical Storm during
the next 24 hours. If it does so...it will tie the record of 21
named storms set in 1933.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by Reconnaissance
Aircraft was 1001 MB...29.56 inches.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to
6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica...with isolated
amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.7 n... 79.6 w. movement
toward...West-Northwest near 2 MPH. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 MPH. Minimum central pressure...1001 MB.
An Intermediate Advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
Complete Advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
$$
NNN
Yep...
This one could be that annular storm they thought Rita was going to be....NOT Good
Beyond that, there's hope it won't develop into anything organized.
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