Latest pictures out of China of PLANs work on the Carrier Varyag

CHINA.COM Military Pics ^ | 10 Octoner 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

The PLAN is readying the former Russian carrier Varyag for something. These pictures show the exterior painting now being completed in the standard PLAN surface combatant colors, with the superstructure preparing to be painted.

They have been working on the project in their naval shipyards for over two year now.

[F.J. Mitchell]

One Carrier can be a threat, but a threat easily defused.

Where's the fleet?

[Jeff Head]

They will wait until after the Olympics, hoping for a different US administration (like a Hillary, Kerry, or some RINO).

In the mean time they will keep buying and building more and more of their own subs (the new diesel electrics are strong for the litoral waters) including their new nuclear SSNs. In addition, they will keep the pedal to the medal building new, modern surface combatants. With all of this they will attempt to break the blockade if necessary...and prolong the conflict and do enough damage for us to back away.

But they hope to avoid one altogether if they can... they will move quickly enough on Taiwan to have a new administration pause in coming too quickly to its aide, hoping to have us face a "fait a complait. In the 2009 time frame, their naval and air assets will have increased dramatically at the rate they are building and training now, and they will hope that a weaker administration will see it as too risky and too costly to try and take it back.

In the mean time they are also trying to secure oil reserves with Russia (in Siberia and elsewhere) and with the 'stan countries that are frioendly to them so they can bring it in overland.

[Jeff Head]

See here...

They are building up at an unprecedented rate.

[Jeff Head]

I know the US government knows its location. These pics are from the Dalian shipyards in China. The Chinese are not hiding this. We have known where it was since it got there.

[stevie_d_64]

They apparently have the "Forger" type V-STOL aircraft, and the more modern SU-27 Naval version that utilizes the "ramped bow"...

I'm wondering if I can get a good "Google Earth" image of that seaport where they are doing this refit...

Bottom line, it'll take a lot more than a good coat of paint to make this ship a real threat, more than a juicy target...

[Jeff Head]

I tend to agree...but we dare not underestimate them.

[JamesP81]

As I mentioned in one of my earlier posts, a full scale blockade and assault on shipping by US Navy submarines would totally cripple their economy and I think that's the conventional wisdom to follow. Things could be dicey in the first day of fighting for our Navy, since our pilots would be so heavily outnumbered by their air power. To mitigate this to some degree, we could fly stealth bombers out of Guam or Japan to hit as many airfields and communications facilites as possible. That would make it difficult for them to coordinate all that air power. After that, you pick it apart a piece at a time. Within a few weeks, the blockade of their ports will have them starved for oil and we'll be in a pretty good position to force a peace settlement.

China's economy would be in ruins. The rest of the world's economy would take a hit, but probably not as bad of one as most would think. The situation would probably be good for the economies of Japan, South Korea, and Brazil as they would likely take up much of the slack in manufactured goods no longer coming out of China. Also, oil prices may drop slightly, since none could be sold to China due to the blockade.

Now, if Russia enters the war on China's side, the blockade will take longer as they have lots of oil to sell to China. However, China relies on many shipped in resources, not just crude oil. The blockade would still take its toll, but it would take longer. In this situation, I think the prudent thing to do would be for the US to redeploy USAF assets to Japan (probably draw the forces out of Europe, if there are any left, since that area is now more or less stable anyway) and engage in a somewhat protracted air war in order to supress their air force. This might take several months. The USAF is up to that challenge, although it could turn out to be a bloody fight. Much would rest on the deep strike abilities of the stealth bombers and our fighter pilots' superior air-to-air combat skills (not to mention superior aircraft).

I think it's highly unlikely India will enter an alliance with China - they've hated each other with a passion since that nasty little incident with Tibet.

[Riley]

I'm wondering if I can get a good "Google Earth" image of that seaport where they are doing this refit...

Nope. You can just barely make it out. GE's resolution is awful there. There are much better pictures on this thread, and on the pages linked herein.

[ExpatGator]

Yep. One of our fast attack boats will fire a couple of fish right up this ship's behind. Jump carrier goes dead in the water and the boys from Formosa will finish it off. If the commies are lucky they will get to tow it back for scrap. If not so lucky they will be able to fish on it as an artificial reef for decades to come.

[Jeff Head]

Actually...even with sarcasm...the valid point is, and one that has everyone wondering...is whether the PLAN has been able to fit a new set pf engines in the beast.

As I understand it, the Ukraine took the old ones out before it was towed over. That's an answer no one knows right now, but they have had mnore than enough time to get the job done. Clearly, it will go nowhere without new, powerful engines.

[azhenfud]

Now just where are they building this future artificial reef for?

[Tatze]

Let them spend all that money on what we will help become a large artificial reef in the Straits of Taiwan.

[DarthVader]

I know Jeff but 1 carrier versus the US Pacific Fleet is a shooting arcade. Just like the Bismarck vs the Brits. A sub can overtake and hunt this ship down like a cheetah gets a gazelle. If a wolfpack of attack boats is used it is certain death for the ship and its crew. There is no escape from a Mk 48.

[Eaker]

LOL!!!

[RikaStrom]

Oh, now that's interesting.

[hosepipe]

Shes a beauty...
Would almost be a shame for a Taiwanese sub to assassinate her..
or Japanese.. or Indian.. or even being Exocet'onerated.. as a prophylactic event..

Would be a shame.. < / end of snide >

[Obadiah]

Interesting, thanks. Some of your previous pictures looked like satellite shots, that's why I asked. Well, that's one doozie of a casino!

[HHKrepublican_2]

has anyone read the "Dragon Fury" books and give me a review of sorts?

[Jeff Head]

That hunt is going to have to occur in the confined, litoral waters near the Chinese coast, under their land based air, and with a whole lot of their quiet diesel/electrics around waiting.

I have no doubts we can get the thing whenever we wanted her...but it may prove costly. Maybe better to let the naval fly boys, or the air force guys off Guam take her down...but they would have a gauntlet to run too, with Chinese air and the new area air defense DDGs they Chinese are pumping out.

They will hope to make it appear too costly to a new administration is my bet.

[funkywbr]

Can you spell bottom of the ocean?