In the mean time they will keep buying and building more and more of their own subs (the new diesel electrics are strong for the litoral waters) including their new nuclear SSNs. In addition, they will keep the pedal to the medal building new, modern surface combatants. With all of this they will attempt to break the blockade if necessary...and prolong the conflict and do enough damage for us to back away.
But they hope to avoid one altogether if they can... they will move quickly enough on Taiwan to have a new administration pause in coming too quickly to its aide, hoping to have us face a "fait a complait. In the 2009 time frame, their naval and air assets will have increased dramatically at the rate they are building and training now, and they will hope that a weaker administration will see it as too risky and too costly to try and take it back.
In the mean time they are also trying to secure oil reserves with Russia (in Siberia and elsewhere) and with the 'stan countries that are frioendly to them so they can bring it in overland.
Both good posts, and I totally agree that a carefully executed geo-political attack would be a challenge.
This is really what all American conflicts boil down to, don't they? Vietnam or even Iraq today is a war of wills against an American public opinion that is regarded as weak-willed by our most dangerous enemies.
I'm just not convinced that the Comm. Party is really anymore in complete control of the PLA than the US President is really in charge of public opinion. I just am not confident that a "Chinese Attack" from out of the blue will be some brilliant coordinated and organized operation that will leave the USN drifting.
Nor can I see the power cadres within China pushing for confrontation as it will totally disrupt their worldwide business distribution models, both on supply and demand.