PA State Treasurer Pulls Further Ahead Of U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum In Latest Poll

Quinnipiac University Polling Institute ^ | October , 2005

[Clintonfatigued]

Pennsylvania State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., has opened a 52 - 34 percent lead over incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2006 Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

[poobear]

How many dead voters did they poll in Phili to get these numbers?

[Clintonfatigued]

It's very rare when an incumbent Senator enters a race trailing his opponent and losing ground. This does not look good at all.

[Brilliant]

To me, it looks like Pennsylvania is soon going to be as liberal as NY and New England.

[Txsleuth]

It is kind of ironic that the lower the numbers for Santorum go....the less I have seen of him..

OR, maybe not!

I haven't seen him up on the Senate floor, or heard of him doing much of anything this session...it could be that he is spending ALL of his time campaigning....but I would think he would be working HARD, to show his constituents that, as a sitting Senator....

he can get things done...and make a difference.

[stevio]

Just damn.

[twigs]

I agree. A year ago, over on DU, I read about libs there who were sending money in from around the country to defeat him. This is a well-financed and country-wide effort. We need him here in PA and I don't like the out-of-state interference. And we still have Arlen.

[linn37]

Casey has the local newspapers working for his election. Santorums going to have to work hard to pull this one off.

[HamiltonJay]

Don't bet on it... take a look at the PA county by county map... Liberals are losing ground here... Philly is the last bastion they have... Pittsburgh region is moving more and more republican every election....

Unfortunately though, Philly is a huge population area... and is basically a glorified suburb of NYC.. so it screws the rest of the state pretty good.

All I can say on this, is the Senate race isn't even on the Radar, at least in W. PA... we are busy hating Rendell, dealing with property assessment issues.. and the ever a leach on progress Judge Weddick.

[WhistlingPastTheGraveyard]

Rick didn't do himself any favors in voting for McCain's terrorist protection amendment yesterday.

If I still lived in PA, I wouldn't think of voting for him.

[HamiltonJay]

Santorum raises his numbers 20 points in 1 day....

Goes on TV and announces that the pay raises should be repealed.... and starts to bully pulpit the issue.

Of course Republicans voted for the pay raises, so won't endear him to the state party at all.. but he comes in and calls a spade a spade.. he'll be on an issue that has political momentum in the state and will boost his ratings overnight. Guaranteed.

[AmishDude]

No, I think this is genuine. Pennsylvanians thought highly of Bob Casey, Sr. and think his son is the same. He's not, of course. This is all based on name recognition, there has been no campaign yet. Bob Casey, Jr. is a lump and has as much charisma as warm spit.

Also Q'piac is a terrible poller. They're not terribly far off here, but they have traditionally been Dem-leaning.

[Clintonfatigued]

Worse was Santorum's support for the crappy CAFTA Treaty. How could he think that was a good thing in historically protectionist Pennsylvania?

[JohnnyZ]

To me, it looks like Pennsylvania is soon going to be as liberal as NY and New England

That must be why it's one of the rare states that have two pro-life candidates squaring off in the Senate race.

[ex-snook]

Looks like Bush swapped Santorum for Specter. Also called lose-lose.

[AmishDude]

Pittsburgh is losing population faster than Philly. The problem is the Philly suburbs which are becoming more Dem-friendly over time.

You're right in that the top of the ticket will be Ed Rendell vs. (I hope) Lynn Swann. Swannie will be a big boost and anybody tied to Rendell is going to suffer because of it.

Also, I expect Snarlin' Arlen to pay back BIG TIME. I'm beginning to think that Santorum forsaw just this problem and is hoping Arlen will boost his "moderate" credentials.

[JohnnyZ]

the crappy CAFTA Treaty. How could he think that was a good thing in historically protectionist Pennsylvania?

Probably because it was the Right thing? Free trade, prosperity, and an attack against the creeping socialism and Chinese influence in much of Latin America.

[AmishDude]

Regarding Casey, Jr.'s "pro-life" credentials, don't count on it. The people donating to him aren't.

Here is his "issues" page. Do you see ANYTHING related to abortion? Do you even see him mentioning PBA? He's a fraud on the life issue and is cashing in on his dad's name on it.

[mcvey]

I have been wondering for some time how Santorum was going to win. He is generally pictured in the media as some wild-eyed troglodyte. Worse, he is simply not defining the issues in ways that make the "purple" voter happy. PA tends to break, nowadays, about 1/3 red, 1/3 blue and 1/3 purple. His hope now is to wage a relentless campaign in the Southeastern part of the state. He really really needs to spend as much time as possible in mainline Protestant churches and synagogues. Bush got a bump in both categories by explaining how his policies protect both the US and Israel. In particular, he needs to talk to Orthodox and Conservative congregations about how Iraq relates to Israel and he needs to talk to Reform congregations and the mainline Protestant congregations about how he is not going to bring back the Inquisition. Right now, as I listen to my colleagues, he is being passed off as a simple-minded throwback to the fourteenth-century--and that will be hard to overcome. I think the image may be indelible.

Even without that, the Philly suburbs are becoming relentlessly bluer. The center of the state will hold and he should do "ok" around Pittsburgh, but Scranton will be very difficult, if not impossible.

Frankly, without enormous outside help, I don't see him making it. That means that inside of six years, PA will have two permanent Democratic senators. Spector will be gone either through his health or through retirement and many of his Philly supporters will shift Democratic. Republicans will end up fighting a permanent rear-guard battle in their strongholds in the center of the state and around Pittsburgh.

That in turns makes it very likely that the Senate will be 53-46-1 or 53-47 very quickly.

McVey

[Willie Green]

To me, it looks like Pennsylvania is soon going to be as liberal as NY and New England.

Not really.
Casey is actually quite "conservative" as far as 'Rats go.
(pro-life, pro-capital punishment, pro-2nd Amendment)
And he has statewide name recognition since his father was a recent governor.
(His dad was also somewhat "too conservative" for most "mainstream" liberals.)
Could be very bad news for Santorum, especially on economic issues such as CAFTA and the budget deficit.