Bush Wants Right To Use Military If Bird Flu Hits

WASHINGTON, Oct 4 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush asked Congress on Tuesday to consider giving him powers to use the military to enforce quarantines in case of an avian influenza epidemic.

He said the military, and perhaps the National Guard, might be needed to take such a role if the feared H5N1 bird flu virus changes enough to cause widespread human infection.

"If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?" Bush asked at a news conference.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?" Bush added.

"One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in four Asian nations since late 2003 and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

Experts fear that the H5N1 bird flu virus, which appears to be highly fatal when it infects people, will develop the ability to pass easily from person to person and would cause a pandemic that would kill millions.

"And I think the president ought to have all ... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," Bush said.

He noted that some governors may object to the federal government commandeering the National Guard, which is under state command in most circumstances.

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak," Bush said.

The active duty military is currently forbidden from undertaking law enforcement duties by the federal Posse Comitatus Act.

That law, passed in 1878 after the U.S. Civil War, does not prohibit National Guard troops under state control from doing police work. But, unless the law is changed, it would keep them from doing so if they were activated by Washington under federal control.

While the law allows the president to order the military to take control and do police work in an extreme emergency, the White House has been traditionally reluctant to usurp state powers.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told reporters he was not aware of any current planning by the military to help respond to a flu pandemic.

But he noted that after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the Gulf region, Bush had asked Congress to consider giving the military control over initial response in dealing with major natural or other domestic disasters.

"Obviously the (Defense) Department has a tremendous amount of capability in a lot of areas. And we are a large force," Whitman said, noting also that the military had deployed field hospitals to Louisiana after the hurricanes.

Health experts are working to develop vaccines that would protect against the H5N1 strain of flu, because current influenza vaccines will not.

And countries are also developing stockpiles of drugs that can reduce the risk of serious disease or even sometimes prevent infection -- but supplies and manufacturing capacity are both limited.

Bush said he was involved in planning for an influenza pandemic, which experts say will definitely come, although they cannot predict when, or whether it will be H5N1 or some other virus. (Additional reporting by Maggie Fox)

Hi, if I may interject?

There have been a few cases of person to person spread, in Vietnam and in Jakarta. They do not fit the definition of pandemic spread, as they are mostly within families. Furthermore, there is no evidence that the index patient in each case has spread to patient #2, and then that patient #2 has infected someone else. So far, it stops at patient #2.

You can believe me or not, but I have kept up on this issue for literally months, at this site and others. There is a lot of precise information in the links found at the Avian Flu Surveillance Project thread. If you do a search for that title, you'll find it. There are countless links there.

There is, however, a significant chance that as more animals and people are infected with H5N1 (and Jakarta has a large outbreak from a zoo) a recombination of H5N1 and another influenza virus already present in the same person will occur. Viruses do this.

At that point, the deadly pandemic that most are concerned about will begin. Ordinary flu is extraordinarily contagious, and when combined with the morbidity and mortality of bird flu, the outlook is serious. WHO, the CDC, China, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries are greatly concerned and attempting to stockpile Tamiflu, Relenza, and other antiviral drugs as quickly as possible. There are few Tamiflu manufacturers, and it takes an entire year to manufacture a batch. Furthermore, there are signs that Tamiflu is losing its effectiveness as a treatment for influenza.

You may not wish to do all the looking and learning that we've done, and that's fine. Draw your own conclusions, it's no problem. I'm not trying to convince anyone, but I'm happy to share information.

I merely asked for proof. So far, none.

I can't argue with your premise.

As far as i know, and I'm not up on this 100%, there have been some scares, some investigations of the reported possibility, but thus-far, there have not been any transmissions that fit the definition of a beginning pandemic.

Members of families have indeed caught the bug, but the transmission method does not yet fit what they are fearful of.

Keep in mind that the Chinese have a nasty habit of not telling anyone until the crap hits the fan. Also, the rumors are thick.

But you are right, I don't think there is an affirmed reported case of person to person that does not involve some other method of transmission and that sorta confuses the issue a bit.

But it does not mean that it won't happen. This thing is akin to a tropical depression where all the other weather factors say it will become a hurricane.

But so far, they have kept a lid on it.

Do you accept reports from the CDC?

From this website:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

"What is the risk to humans from the H5N1 virus in Asia? Updated May 24 The H5N1 virus does not usually infect humans. In 1997, however, the first case of spread from a bird to a human was seen during an outbreak of bird flu in poultry in Hong Kong. The virus caused severe respiratory illness in 18 people, 6 of whom died. Since that time, there have been other cases of H5N1 infection among humans. Most recently, human cases of H5N1 infection have occurred in Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia during large H5N1 outbreaks in poultry. The death rate for these reported cases has been about 50 percent. Most of these cases occurred from contact with infected poultry or contaminated surfaces; however, it is thought that a few cases of human-to-human spread of H5N1 have occurred.

So far, spread of H5N1 virus from person to person has been rare and spread has not continued beyond one person. However, because all influenza viruses have the ability to change, scientists are concerned that the H5N1 virus could one day be able to infect humans and spread easily from one person to another. Because these viruses do not commonly infect humans, there is little or no immune protection against them in the human population. If the H5N1 virus were able to infect people and spread easily from person to person, an “influenza pandemic” (worldwide outbreak of disease) could begin. No one can predict when a pandemic might occur. However, experts from around the world are watching the H5N1 situation in Asia very closely and are preparing for the possibility that the virus may begin to spread more easily and widely from person to person."

Italics are mine. If you do not accept the word of the CDC, then no proof will be good enough for you.

H5N1 Pandemic In Jakarta, Approaches Pandemic Phase 6 Patricia Doyle, PhD dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com By Dr. Henry L. Niman, PhD Recombinomics.com 9-18-5
MT, a seven-year-old girl, currently being treated at the Sulianti Saroso hospital in North Jakarta, tested positive on her blood test, but negative on the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test, said Minister of Health Siti Fadilah Supari as quoted by news portal detik.com.
The minister nor other senior officials of the ministry could be immediately reached for confirmation.
The girl was previously treated at the Siloam Gleneagles hospital in Tangerang and was referred to Saroso on Sept. 14. The ministry was still waiting for the results of a second PCR test.
It was also investigating another suspected case, identified only as a family member of Rini Dina, the country's most recent confirmed bird flu fatality. The relative tested positive on the blood test and is currently suffering from flu-like symptoms, such as a fever and sore throat, which are also symptoms consistent with early stages of avian influenza.
"We are taking the patient to a hospital for observation as soon as the family approves," she said.
Siti added that there was a high possibility of other suspected cases and that the public must be vigilant against the spread of the disease. She declared that the country was already in the "third stage of bird flu" and although there had not been any reports of human-to-human transfer of the virus, she added that "it is just a matter of time."
The above comments suggest Indonesia is already at stage 4 or 5 and the pandemic is close to the final stage 6 which is defined by sustained human-to-human transmission.
Human-to-human transmission was clear in the initial family cluster, which involved 3 members of a family of a government auditor (38M). His eight year old daughter was the index case, showing symptom on June 24. The time gap between her symptoms and her 1 year old sister who developed symptoms on June 29 is a strong signal of human-to-human transmission. Such a 5-10 day gap has been present in almost all familial clusters in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. WHO however, has refused to acknowledge the virtual certainty of human-to-human transmission in all or most of those cases, which account for more than one third of confirmed cases. Instead WHO maintains that the vast majority of cases come from poultry, thereby contributing to more human-to-human transmission within families, which is clearly happening in Tangerang.
The WHO position is compounded by use of lack of lab tests or false negatives to exclude patients. In the family of the auditor, only he is an official case because his PCR test was positive. There were only two serum samples from the index case and both were positive in tests by two independent outside labs (in Hong Kong and Atlanta). There was no doubt that the child died from H5N1 bird flu, but since the serum samples were collected just three days apart, the rising titer (a sign of recent infection) had not risen four fold in the three days, so only the father was called a confirmed case. This exclusion justified the repeated claims of "no evidence of human-to-human transmission", when in fact there was little doubt that the gaps in onset dates of June 24, 29, and July 2 indicated the index case infected her sister and father directly or indirectly.
The comments above indicate there is another familial cluster between the fatal case of the immigration officer and one of her relatives, who is also laboratory confirmed. Both of these clusters are in families of government workers who would have little direct contact with poultry or pigs. Moreover there are two neighbors with symptoms and the two familial clusters live in the same area of Tangerang, southwest of the center of Jakarta.
This concentration of fatal, lab confirmed H5N1 is the highest ever reported and is likely to represent a fraction of the human cases because there are no reports of infection in those most associated with poultry and pigs.
Sequencing data from the earlier familial cluster indicates there is no reassortment with human genes and the sequence is similar to sequences found in poultry in Java. Since H5N1 is endemic to Indonesia and extremely limited testing in Tangerang found H5N1 in pigs, poultry, and a pet birdcage, the opportunity of infections from animals and humans is extremely high.
WHO has yet to issue a warning to family members caring for relatives with H5N1 infections, thereby contributing to the human-to-human spread, which has been clear since the beginning of 2004 in Vietnam.
Instead, words of assurance are issued to the press and official counts bury the human-to-human transmissions and maintain a pandemic stage 3 when clearly the level is at 4 or 5 and will soon be phase 6.
WHO's failure to inform is hazardous to the world's health. H5N1 does not read press releases. In evolves via recombination and acquisition of mammal polymorphisms, which increases the likelihood of efficient human-to- human transmission.
From Patricia Doyle, PhD dr_p_doyle@hotmail.com 9-18-5

Familial clusters = person-to-person.

So you trust the media to report the news?

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