Posted on 09/27/2005 8:33:38 AM PDT by Aetius
September 27, 2005, 8:07 a.m. Right Nodding The McCain 2008 goal.
Katrina has indeed altered our political landscape: For the first time in years, conservatives have listened to Arizona Sen. John McCain talk about a high-profile domestic issue and have nodded their heads vigorously. The maverick Republican made his reputation by bucking his own party, especially its conservative base, and, after his failed 2000 nomination bid, seemed to want to make a career out of it. Democrats fantasized about a Kerry-McCain ticket in 2004, as McCain occupied his own little world of resentment at how the 2000 nomination had supposedly been stolen from him and of a “progressive” Republicanism at times difficult to distinguish from Democratic orthodoxy.
After Katrina and the countless billions of dollars that began pouring toward the Gulf Coast, conservatives clamored for spending offsets elsewhere in the budget, and there was McCain right there with them, excoriating pork-barrel spending (as he always has) and calling for repeal of the massive new Medicare prescription-drug entitlement. In a major battle between conservatives in Congress who want to cut spending and the party’s leadership, which is — to put it mildly — unenthusiastic about the prospect, McCain is with the conservative rebels.
This is so important because, if he runs, McCain is probably the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. But he’s an odd front-runner, a front-runner whose campaign is almost certainly doomed unless he handles conservatives better than he did in 2000. McCain will come out of the gate with formidable assets, among them near-universal name recognition, media adulation and credibility as a serious candidate. But if he again lets another major candidate get to his right on nearly everything — as he let President Bush in 2000 — his campaign will again attract independents, but not the Republicans who are by definition necessary to win the Republican nomination.
So McCain is in a different game from other potential candidates. They need money, media attention, and insider buzz. McCain needs the Right to stop loathing him, and he seems to realize it.
When McCain went out on the campaign trail with Bush — whom he held in contempt for years after 2000 — and gave him bearhugs, it was clear that the senator’s presidential ambitions hadn’t died. It is hard to believe that those hugs were heart-felt. Indeed, McCain’s campaign will strain his capacities for insincerity. If a second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience, a second McCain presidential campaign, to be successful, will have to be the triumph of experience over the candidate’s own predilections.
McCain’s natural constituency is the bookers on Hardball With Chris Matthews, or any other public-affairs show; he is “controversial,” while usually managing to say what the media wants to hear. In 2000, it became clear his grand goal was to blow up the current Republican coalition and craft something new, although it was left vague what exactly. He has never demonstrated great affection for social conservatives, whom he blasted in 2000. But he can work around these things. He recently endorsed teaching Intelligent Design in schools, although he probably has as much sympathy for this critique of evolution as the New York Times editorial board does.
McCain will be the strongest performing Republican against Hillary Clinton in early opinion polls; if anything, he is more aggressive on the war on terror than Bush is; he will have a strong theme of returning to a cleaner Republicanism after the ethical lapses of the current congressional majority. And all of this will be wrapped in his appealing thematic mix of patriotism, sacrifice and duty.
The problem for McCain is that he has such a richly layered history of apostasy, including on conservative gospel like the Bush tax cuts. Some of it is of recent vintage, for instance the enforcement-less immigration bill he is co-sponsoring with Ted Kennedy. A strong conservative candidate who unites the Right can take him down. But for that candidate, the less conservatives nod their heads at anything McCain has to say, the better.
To simply nullify the Courts, and to stop them from continually siding with the Left in the Culture war by imposing that which can't be properly enacted in most states, is the primary goal of cultural conservatives. We are perfectly content in taking our chances in the democratic process, but the imposition of leftist outcomes by the Courts is unacceptable and infuriating. McCain need only take our side against judicial activism, and I think he could win the nomination.
And while I do think that the media's love for McCain would drop once he faces off against a democrat (and not an evil Republican), especially if its Hillary, its probably a safe bet that he would still be treated better than most Republicans. As such, he would have a golden opportunity to use his top moderate status to point out to the public (especially moderates and independents) that the Left's demonization of justices like Scalia is based on lies; that such conservative judges would be neutral in the culture war and would not impose anything on anyone as liberal judges do. If he did this, McCain could become a hero to social conservatives.
Now having said all of that, I don't think that he will actually do any of this. He has spoken highly of Scalia in the past, but he probably fears losing the media's adoration, so he'll probably choose not to take advantage of this opportunity.
And to change topics; McCain's alliance with Ted Kennedy on a thinly-veiled amnesty will be a strong knock against him. That Kennedy is an enthusiastic cosponsor says all one needs to know about this garbage bill, and McCain would be wise to jettison it and join forces with Kyl and Cornyn and support their less offensive bill.
Words are not deeds. McCain is going to have to do an awful lot more then just talk to patch things up with the Coservative base.
"McCain needs the Right to stop loathing him, and he seems to realize it."
I don't know that I "loath" him, but I certainly don't trust him. He's absolutely unreliable, I don't care how strong a stance he takes against fiscal irresponsibility. I think he's in it for the attention, and not for conservative principles. And please don't ask if I'd vote for him rather than Horrid Hillary (at least, not first thing in the morning!).
Couldn't this writer show even a little bit of creativity and refrain from using the word, "maverick"?
I guess in 2008 I will just stay home. If McPain wins the primary I will not vote for him.
A McCain ticket will keep me home, or force my vote to a third party true Conservative if available, on election day. For now I prefer to see Tancredo on the ticket, as P or VP, to ensure immigration laws get enforced and broders are secured.
McCain does not look healthy enough to be President.
Here's a novel idea. How about enforcing the stinking laws we do have before adding another layer to ignore.
John McCain:
1. Pro-American patriot.
2. Pro-life with exceptions for rape, incest, Life of mother
1. Traditional budget balancing Repub....will raise taxes to balance budget
2. Anti-Free Speech (Campaign Finance)
3. Gun Rights Moderate (Will allow prosecution of companies)
4. Pro Filibuster
Those are the things I remember about him. I would not support him in the primaries, but I would in the general.
To get elected suddenly he will be "Conservative". If you beleive that one I have some swamp land......and all that!
Please! A Leopard does NOT change his spots.
Rino is as Rino does and worse. Hopefully the majority of die hard conservatives are NOT buying this "new and improved McCain" ACT!!
I would write myself in and call it good.
NEVER HAPPENED! mcpain (media) Az could never win a GOP primary without that stupid crossover rule. He's dead meat Rich. Wake up dude.
"For the first time in years, conservatives have listened to Arizona Sen. John McCain talk about a high-profile domestic issue and have nodded their heads vigorously"
Think about that for a minute. How far left must the current situation have drifted if you have to loook to your right to see McCain?
McCain has no chance with the conservative base. He is untrustworthy and unreliable. He is a political shell with no core principles except for power-seeking and self aggrandizement.
Should he ever manage to squeak through to nomination, the media will immediately devour him. They will deliberately soft sell him to the right during primary season, knowing they have the goods to destroy him following his nomination.
I hope we are not that stupid.
I agree...but I think McVain will lose the primary to either George Allen or even better...Rick Perry. I don't know why he hasn't been mentioned for a possible White House run...ditto Marc Racicot, former two-term MT governor. It's early yet...and both of these governors have an excellent chance to consider running. I don't want McVain to even think about it. He's too old (will be 72 in 08) and he's had malignant melanoma twice. I don't like or trust McVain and he's got to go.
Snicker.
On another note, McCain would be a disaster as president. A man who cannot control his temper always makes a bad leader. A man whose core is difficult to locate, or is rotting, is friend to dangerous levels of political expediency.
The Oval Office isn't big enough for McCain's ego. That in itself would cause mega problems.
I don't think anyone knows the *real* John McCain. What appears above the surface makes me not want to have to find out what he tries to keep submerged.
You forgot gov Sanford.
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