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Al-Qaeda's ‘Bowing-Out' Strategy
The Jamestown Foundation ^ | 9/19/05 | Stephen Ulph

Posted on 09/23/2005 8:32:47 AM PDT by Valin

The recent release of a tape featuring the address by an American al-Qaeda member ‘Azam' (thought to be Adam Gadahn, who earlier broadcast a message prior to the 2004 US elections threatening large scale terror attacks) has been evaluated by some analysts as demonstrating a sense of frustration in the movement. In particular the frustration is over the lack of debate in the West about the long-term political aims of al-Qaeda and the jihad.

The mujahideen are equally busy analyzing the latest statements from the al-Qaeda leadership. While the theme of Western incomprehension is present, predictably, the analyses are more positive and optimistic in tone, consistent with the perception of the immutable logic of the jihadi cause. The idea that the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington backfired on al-Qaeda, in that they subsequently lost their base in Afghanistan without exciting a mass pan-Islamic movement against the West, finds no resonance. But with an admixture of fantasy that compensates for a lack of facts, the image of a waning al-Qaeda is given a new twist.

An interesting example is a recent posting on the jihadi forum Risalat al-Umma by the user Sayf Allah. Under the provocative title: "Al-Qaeda organization is now finished," the jihadi analyst speaks of a new phase "which the infidels are unaware of, or do not wish to believe." He claims that al-Qaeda has, and has always had, a specific aim: to galvanize the sleeping corpse of the Islamic Nation and remove the corrosive body of Western influence. To that end, the 9/11 attacks were designed "to force the Western snake to bite the sleeping body, and wake it up;" a strategy which he evaluates as having turned out highly successful. The "end of al-Qaeda" is, therefore, the end of this galvanizing role. Infidels, the analyst explains, "are still fixated on fighting individuals, oblivious to the fact that they are actually fighting an idea, one that has spread across the globe like fire and which is embraced even by those whose faith is a mustard seed." His conclusion is that Western strategies to fight al-Qaeda are therefore illusory (or are a deliberate self-deception) in that al-Qaeda is no longer operative as a strategic body, but rather "the Islamic Nation's men, women and children are all now ‘al-Qaeda.'" [www.alommh.net]

This theme of the ‘end' was also developed by Sayf Allah Usama and published by the Global Islamic Media Front. Taking as his cue the statement made to the Arabic satellite channel al-Jazeera on the July 7 attacks on London by al-Qaeda's number two, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the author defends al-Zawahiri and al-Qaeda from criticism of ideological bankruptcy resulting from the loss of their base. Instead, he suggests that al-Zawahiri was explaining al-Qaeda's strategic program and purpose. The reason for this, he explains, is that he became particularly intrigued by al-Zawahiri's focus on historical matters and his account of al-Qaeda's struggle—"an unusual thing for one who speaks constantly of the present and of the future." There can be, he states, only one reason for this: "the [al-Qaeda] organization is about to exit the portal of history, to re-enter in another form, but with different forces, in a grander struggle with the infidel."

Under this interpretation, al-Zawahiri has "signed the exit visa of al-Qaeda, so that it now is to become a page in the history of Muslims—the beginning of a new era." This ‘signing off' is part of the original plan; to "revive the [Islamic] Nation and prepare it for a comprehensive confrontation with the Kuffar" on a scale larger than what has been waged up to now against apostate elements in individual countries. The confrontation is the final scene, "to be played by al-Qaeda against world Unbelief—the smashing of the great idol [the United States of America]." The author then lists some of the aims and achievements of al-Qaeda:

· The joining of efforts against the head of Unbelief, America; · Instilling freedom from defeatism among the Muslim youth, through the attacks on New York and Washington; · Drawing the American enemy outside its borders and casting it into the Islamic swamp, so as to expose the truth about the artificial ‘truce' between Muslims and the Unbelievers; · Whetting the appetite of the youth to go to Iraq to form a new front, in order to make the U.S. military taste what the Soviets tasted in Afghanistan; · Detaching America from its Crusader roots in Europe and Australia, by punishing rebel states who participated alongside America in its attack on Iraq; thus inducing terror of al-Qaeda and the gradual disassociation from her great enemy [the USA] and withdrawal of their support for it; · Getting Muslim masses used to the idea that al-Qaeda can reach anyone who harms them; ending the assumption that Western victory is assured; and bringing the battle to its climax.

The grand conflict with the great idol, according to the jihadi analyst, is in two stages, each bearing symbolic similarities to the other as a struggle of a weaker party against a stronger. If the first stage of the struggle was one fought in mountains and caves and hideouts, the second and final stage of the struggle is one conducted "with the full economic, military and political force of the Islamic nations."

According to this analysis, al-Zawahiri's speech comes at a pivotal moment in the great conflict of the Islamic Nation against "the primary forces in the world defending the Cross." It is the "final, legal, call to the arrogant Americans to avoid the dreadful destruction which will befall them, after which al-Qaeda cannot be blamed for its actions against those who do not leave the Islamic Nation alone." For the nations allied to the United States, they too should know that their time is coming, and that they will be picked off one by one, after the stoutest fortress of the Cross is destroyed.

But al-Zawahiri's address also marks the end of the ‘al-Qaeda' phase of this great conflict. After it has passed, the analyst concludes, having served its galvanizing purpose, it will metaphorically re-enter the portal of history, but ‘in a more resplendent, stronger form, in the guise of the liberated Muslim masses taking vengeance on their servitude to the West and on America, the scourge of their countries.'

Far from frustration at the failure of the al-Qaeda program to galvanize the Nation, Sayf Allah Usama is confident that this has already been achieved. For the jihadist contemplating al-Qaeda's ebb, it should be regarded as "the exit of heroes, and the re-entry of their souls into a new phase of the struggle waged by revived Muslims, rising proud after their humiliation, assured of their victory against the great enemy and the fool of the era, America." [www.alommh.net]


TOPICS: Extended News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaeda; alqaedastrategy; gadahn; globaljihad
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To: Valin
The writer describes a Muslim leadership which is detached from reality -- schizophrenic to be more precise. Anyone who has worked with the mentally ill will instantly recognize that the deluded interpretation of past events and the forcasting of future grand events are the rantings of a schizophrenic mind.
21 posted on 09/23/2005 9:16:58 AM PDT by Patti_ORiley
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To: river rat

What makes you think this isn't already happening?


22 posted on 09/23/2005 9:17:14 AM PDT by Valin (The right to do something does not mean that doing it is right.)
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To: kimosabe31
Don't sell these a..holes short. With 1.2 B islamofascists, they can create quite a ruckus worldwide.

This assumes that a significant percentage of them are as fanatical and eager for world-wide conflict as Al Qaeda & Co. The truth is that the overwhelming majority don't want to die anymore than anyone else does, and while most may not exactly be in love with us, their actions (or lack thereof) seem to show that they see the terrorists more as fanatics and trouble-makers than Michael Moore's Minutemen.

I cite as evidence both Iraq and Afghanistan where somehow the Islamic Nation just hasn't risen up in widespread rebellion. According to my brother, a boot on the ground IN Afghanistan who talks to and deals with Afghanis daily, their biggest fear is not that the Americans will stay but that they will LEAVE. Hell, some of them even want America to colonize the place.

Face it, if it was possible to "galvanize the Islamic Nation" to full-scale holy war against America, it would have happened by now. If the Infidel invading Iraq and Afghanistan -- and this after setting up military bases in Saudi and decades of support for Israel prior to that -- didn't cause the Arab Street to go nuts, it just ain't gonna happen.

Zawahiri is nothing but Baghdad Bob II.

23 posted on 09/23/2005 9:27:15 AM PDT by Zhangliqun (Hating Bush does not count as a strategy for defeating Islamic terrorism.)
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To: Zhangliqun
some of them even want America to colonize the place.

There's an idea, trade Hawaii for Afghanistan.

24 posted on 09/23/2005 9:32:41 AM PDT by bkepley
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To: Valin
Short of some endtime plaque, I don't think they can really slow us down, or hurt us mortally.

After two cat4 hurricanes, we will start the process of relearning civil defense for big cities. These hurricanes are a painful blessing in disguise
25 posted on 09/23/2005 9:33:00 AM PDT by catbertz
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To: river rat; Squantos

Squantos, don't you already have a terrorist hunting license?


26 posted on 09/23/2005 9:42:57 AM PDT by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: Valin
Boiled down this is merely a repeat of "The Arab street will rise", horsesh*t.
27 posted on 09/23/2005 9:43:45 AM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: Valin

"with the full economic, military and political force of the Islamic nations"

- LOL


28 posted on 09/23/2005 9:44:38 AM PDT by Frenetic
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To: megatherium
Ha Ha! Wait 'till they have to tackle Fusion!
29 posted on 09/23/2005 9:52:02 AM PDT by BigYellowDog
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To: Valin
particular the frustration is over the lack of debate in the West about the long-term political aims of al-Qaeda and the jihad.

Ummmm... What's to debate about? World domination and death to non-believers isn't exactly a nuanced position subject to substantial debate, is it?

30 posted on 09/23/2005 9:55:04 AM PDT by MortMan (Mostly Harmless)
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To: Valin
al-Zawahiri has "signed the exit visa of al-Qaeda

Uh, sorry Al-Z, the US military "signed" AQ's exit visa.

31 posted on 09/23/2005 9:58:07 AM PDT by mikegi
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To: bkepley
There's an idea, trade Hawaii for Afghanistan.

No way I'm wearing my grass skirt in Kabul in December. Lousy surf there, too.

Al Qaeda can try to put a brave face on it, but their principal strategic aim, that of energizing the world of Islam into jihad, has failed. And it turned out not to be a snake they prodded into striking, but a tiger.

They should have picked their enemies with a little better eye toward military success and a little less theological theory. Clearly they have demonstrated that European governments based on social democratic models are, in fact, amenable to manipulation by violence, and that many that have built comfortable enclaves under the protection of foreign military power (i.e. the U.S.'s) now are unwilling or unable to exert themselves to retaliation. It is difficult to overemphasize what a dangerous bit of knowledge that is.

But an objective assessment of damage taken versus ground gained will show anyone but a desperate believer that they lost this one. Their biggest loss was formal state support in Afghanistan. That they are now fallen from training armies to taping drugged-up kids' feet to accelerator pedals is a fairly accurate representation of what a premature declaration of war cost them.

32 posted on 09/23/2005 10:05:43 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Valin
"the Islamic Nation's men, women and children are all now ‘al-Qaeda.'"

Well, that clears things up a little bit. But thanks, we already kind of figured that out.

It does broaden our options, however...

33 posted on 09/23/2005 10:45:11 AM PDT by Kenton ("Life is tough, and it's really tough when you're stupid" - Damon Runyon)
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To: Cicero

GOOD ANALYSIS.


34 posted on 09/23/2005 10:56:32 AM PDT by mission9 (Be a citizen worth living for, in a Nation worth dying for...)
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To: Patti_ORiley

"The writer describes a Muslim leadership which is detached from reality..."

By their own admission, "the second and final stage of the struggle is one conducted "with the full economic, military and political force of the Islamic nations."

So where is all this political force? The political forces in Islamic nations are hunting them down like dogs. Under their own plan, by this time, the Islamic nations would all be uniting under their banner and raising conventional armies that would face off with the west. This isn't happening. Though they still have a lot of life left in them, this empty posturing reminds me of the final days of WWII where the NAZIs would sit in their bunkers and plot increasingly absurd campaigns to turn the tide of the war in their favor.

"This is not the beginning of the end, but rather, the end of the beginning."??


35 posted on 09/23/2005 11:25:41 AM PDT by Owl558 (Support the Troops)
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To: Cicero

the article is delusional in that its (Al Queda's) main premise is that we are now fighting the entire moslem world in one giant mass and that Al Queda has faded because we are now fighting billions of united moslems. that is delusional thinking. It is not happening not even close.


36 posted on 09/23/2005 11:36:59 AM PDT by Williams
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To: Valin

The jihadist idea of "victory through defeat" isn't working.


37 posted on 09/23/2005 11:41:37 AM PDT by ChadGore (VISUALIZE 62,041,268 Bush fans.)
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To: ChadGore

"The jihadist idea of "victory through defeat" isn't working."

The Dims seem to think it works for them.



38 posted on 09/23/2005 12:08:51 PM PDT by wolfcreek
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To: catbertz
I have thought that also. While the radical Muslims think Allah has sent storms to hurt America I think God has sent some less painful(yet still painful) practice drills.
39 posted on 09/23/2005 12:18:38 PM PDT by Free_in_Alabama
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To: All

Just when you conclude there is no one more delusional than your typical American leftist democrat, along comes al-qaeda to one up them.

My question is, who's providing the original talking points to the other team members, the DNC, al-qaeda or the MSM?


40 posted on 09/23/2005 3:00:12 PM PDT by Diplomat
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