[NautiNurse]

New thread

[SE Mom]

Bless you, NN:)

[OC_Steve]

Thanks NN, Like Flyer I am ready for what Rita brings.

[LikeLight]

Disturbance at Petro Truck stop . . . might want to send couple of units . . .

Beaumont scanner

[meyer]

Thanks for keeping up with this, nautiNurse.

[shield]

Promise to eat as much crow as you can swallow if he's right again like he was with Katrina?

Katrina that's one. I'd appreciate it if you'd cite some other examples.

I can cite plenty of forecast that Joe made that made him look like a fool. That's not my problem, he's just so over the top with his forecast and statements.

Do you realize that if Joe has his way we'll have to pay for all weather information including advisories from the NHC on the internet. Now he gets all those free services...but he's working hard to make sure we don't. And if we want them...we'll have to pay for them. That's pretty chicken chit to me.

[nwctwx]

New Orleans sure looks like it's getting wet in this one.

Some squalls nearby there now. If the storm can keep jogging west, the main rain should stay south. Any rain will be too much though.

[nwctwx]

Based on how long she strengthened before getting into this ERC, I am concerned she may end up at best just start getting into the next cycle before she hits land.

She's heading into the Eddy Vortex south of LA now. There is a finger of very warm water from there straight to HOU. Hopefully she doesn't follow that. I see many saying HOU is looking better, but it's still close right now.

Looks like she will level out with the pressure rise shortly, as the new eye takes over. There should be at least some strengthening after that I would think.

If she doesn't come to a crawl offshore, it's almost a sure bet that she comes in as a cat4. The main thing that would hinder it in my opinion would be her sitting off the coast and sucking in dry air off the landmass. I mentioned this a few days ago as the best case scenario.

[nwctwx]

'As I said earlier though, don't see how the Coastal waters could support that, so she just has to weaken again before landfall.'

Unless she is crawling, the waters all the way to the coast are warm enough to support a cat 5.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

I do think she will probably get back to that level at some point before landfall. She probably won't hit as a cat 5, but you never know. I'd like to see her strengthen right away, then go through ERC as landfall occurs. Hopefully she doesn't wait to strengthen for too long.

Good point about the waves... they have been building for a very long time now, even longer than with Katrina. I saw maps of 50-60' waves NE of the center... it's going to be another nightmare along the coast to the east of where she comes in.