Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[johnb838]

I've been in Texas for 25 years, but I was going to school at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale in 1978. It took me 24 hours to get from Chicago to Carbondale by train at the end of Christmas break. I took a cab from the train station to the dorm and it started to snow in Carbondale on the ride. Didn't stop for the next three days. I remember the Great Blizzard of 1978 very, very well.

It was a helluva lot of fun once I was in C'dale, but that train trip and the night in the train station in Homewood with the temperature -25 was from hell.

[LA Woman3]

Looking at your map made me think of the horror if the Tobasco Pepper crop is wiped out in New Iberia this year.




Tabasco.

[Katlyn]

The Flagship

[Zacs Mom]

Dallas

[Rebelbase]

Yeah, living on Tabacco road mixes me up sometimes.

[jeffers]

If what you are saying is true, she is currently headed directly for Port Lavaca, Victoria, and San Antonio. That puts roughly Mobile Alabama/Katrina style surge into Galveston Bay.

[commish]

Recon still shows concentric eyewalls but the inner eyewall is almost toast. The cycle will likely be completed by midnight or so.

You are dead on the money again my friend.

Outer Eyewall is now closed and shrinking, inner eyewall is falling apart. Pressure up slightly again as expected, winds still holding at 120-125 Kts.

391 
URNT12 KNHC 230159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:44:40Z
B. 26 deg 03 min N
090 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 227 deg 109 kt
G. 136 deg 017 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 12 C/ 3015 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E

[steveegg]

New Vortex Data Message from AF309 (eye fix at 8:44 pm CDT; comparing to AF309's previous eye fix of 7:10 pm CDT rather than AF306's eye fix of 7:27 pm) - minimum pressure up 2 mb to 917 mb

000
URNT12 KNHC 230159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:44:40Z
B. 26 deg 03 min N
  090 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 227 deg 109 kt
G. 136 deg 017 nm
H.         917 mb
I.  12 C/ 3015 m
J.  17 C/ 3044 m
K.  16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1  nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA         OB 11
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E

Other major changes -

- Movement 1 minute north 12 minutes west (and 3 minutes north 10 minutes west from the AF306 flight)
- Concentric eyes 18 nm and 32 nm wide (was 17 mn and 32 mn)
- Outer eyewall closed (was open NW), inner eyewall open south-to-east (was open southeast-to-northeast)

[Palladin]

Bastardi is sticking to his guns about Rita hitting Galveston/Houston head-on. He's absolutely certain.

[blam]

"Heh, you reminded me of my own error the other day--I almost always forget and write "Braes Bayou," because literally everything around it is written like the Scottish "brae" -- but the bayou itself is "Brays Bayou." "

I used to live just down the way from you at Evergreen and Chelsea in Bellaire.

BTW, I will go see Skra Brae before I die.

[tcrlaf]

<< I remember the Great Blizzard of 1978 very, very well. >>

LOL!! I was 14 years old (Civil Air Patrol), pulling people out of stranded Buses on I-69 using a snowmobile with 3 tobagons tied in series. Next day I was doing Drug deliveries when we hit a Triumph Tr-7 that was WHITE, and buried in a snowdrift...

Big Chevy truck with high-flotation tires sailed about 30 feet through the air and landed upright!!

[steveegg]

18 seconds; 18 lousy seconds (but I threw in the comparsion to the last AF309 pass)

[SouthTexas]

Don't know if I'd wait, many places from Victoria south were out today. I'm sure some were refilled, but deliver is biggest issue at the moment.

[ErnBatavia]

I remember you posting that some weeks ago...keep it up; sounds like good advice.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Bastardi is sticking to his guns

... And Cantore is in Houston.

[fishntex]

"The entire process takes 12-18 hours. The 5AM NHC advisory noted the beginnings of it, so it likely began at 4AM today. Recon still shows concentric eyewalls but the inner eyewall is almost toast. The cycle will likely be completed by midnight or so."

So does that mean that it could strengthen back to a 5 by landfall?

[padfoot_lover]

Oh, I think you're definitely safe wind-wise that far up, and as long as she doesn't come up and sit over your area, you probably won't flood either. Good luck and God bless!

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

THE FLAGSHIP used to be THE HOTEL to stay at in Galveston many moons ago. I remember it was constructed over the sea wall.

[LA Woman3]

I wasn't trying to flame....
We are just fans of Tabasco! Smoked Chipotle is the best!

[CindyDawg]

You would hate my to do list. It has something I check each month and then a section for

hurricane season

in the gulf

in the strike zone

in the cone

24 hour warning

stay list

get out list

after the storm list:')