Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita continues to move toward landfall along the northwest Gulf of Mexico shoreline. Mandatory and voluntary evacuations continue across Texas and Louisiana coastal areas. Lake Charles LA is providing evacuations by bus for residents who have no transportation.

Traffic gridlock in the greater Houston area was compounded by gasoline stations without fuel, long lines at those stations still carrying fuel, and record breaking temperatures on the first day of autumn.

Offshore drilling platforms and rigs, as well as oil refineries, petrochemical and natural gas plants are in the path of the storm. Wave heights recorded by buoy have exceeded 38 feet. The refineries threatened by Hurricane Rita are on higher ground than those affected by flooding from Katrina. As a result, speculation abounds regarding future prices for winter heating fuel and gasoline.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KPLC-TV Lake Charles KPLC Streaming
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[mathluv]

I love that place! I have always gone there when I get to go to Galveston.

[SE Mom]

Colmes is such a DOLT. He just...doesn't...get it.

[Tuxedo]

What's the name of the hotel overlooking the seawall?

Not sure, but I was supposed to stay there October 19th. Also was supposed to stay in the Hyatt Regency in NOLA the week of Dec 3rd....

[Rte66]

Don't think so. I'm on the high side--and the bayou and "cricks" are very low right now.

Heh, you reminded me of my own error the other day--I almost always forget and write "Braes Bayou," because literally everything around it is written like the Scottish "brae" -- but the bayou itself is "Brays Bayou." (Huh, Flyer?)

[james_f_hall]

I only watch TWC. Too many commercials though and local on the 8s is annoying since I have DirecTV.

[Miss Marple]

Hi, Dane. I am in Indiana, and I think it will be a cold winter for us. My reasons:

1. My late father always told me that the average temperature in Indiana didn't vary by more than a couple of degrees. Which means if you have a hot summer, you are going to have a cold winter.

2. The dreaded black wooly worm has appeared here locally. I have been watching those caterpillars since I was a kid. Sometimes they are all brown, sometimes brown with black stripes. When they are ALL BLACK, trouble's brewing. The last time I remember all-black wooly worms was in 1978, the year of the Great Blizzard.

[SouthTexas]

Good one! Told her they were stuffed.

[Torie]

 40% of hitting 27.8N 92.4W (that's Louisiana)
39% of hitting GULF 28N 91W (Louisiana)
34% of hitting GULF 28N 93W (Louisiana)
29% of hitting 29.2N 93.8W (Louisiana)

Those areas are wet enough for south Louisiana; in fact they are so wet, that they are in the Gulf, in fact beyond the 3 mile state limit. The most likely area to be hit is between Galveston and Port Arthur. That is where the percentages are highest. The percentages are within 65 miles of the eye by the way.

[Zacs Mom]

Hey! That even looks a bit like my dog!! lol Actually, I almost never ever raise my voice and when I do it really does freak out the poor pooch. He comes running over, ear laid down flat against his head and gives me one of those "What fire?" looks!

[yield 2 the right]

Long read some pages long(it is abcnews.com after all)...
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory?id=1150941&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
and after that go to this:(see where the two Cat 4's hit!)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1915/index.html

[Mr Cobol]

I heard him also with someone and was asking what the loss of 25% of our refining capacity would do for the price of gasoling. Like Duh Sean. He was such an idiot today.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

Watch the stream of KHOU. No commercials.

[handy]

How much does N.O. have to worry about the upper Mississippi getting any extra volume from Rita when she moves up? Any?

AFAIK none of the River levees broke in Katrina, and they are REAL levees, not the POS concrete slab that gave way on the canal. They should be okay. River is lower this time of year also than in Spring.

[Torie]

The points are out in the Gulf. For points on land, they use names, not numbers. They use numbers over water, because there are no names. It makes sense when you think about it.

[RummyChick]

Trump is starting his hour long commericials tonight if you want some light entertainment from a bloviator.

[Tex_GOP_Cruz]

I can report no change in pressure, 984mb in Sugar Land.

Old cheap barometer, so not sure how accurate this is, but I was at 29.74" (same as IAH) about three hours ago. Now, I'm actually UP to 29.79". That would be 1009 mb.

[commish]

The latest GFDL looks like the Computer model tracks are all DIVERGING now, and skewing off in crazy diretions

You mean it is different from it's normal Mouse on Crack meandering? LOL

Seriously, the divergence you are starting to see in some of the models is indicitive of what some have been talking about with Rita possibly stalling at some point. The steering mechanisms that the models all count on and calculate off of are dissappearing with Rita. SO, as a result the models are - to put it simply - getting confused.

With nothing to really steer her, Rita is basically going to go on the path of least resistance, she will follow whatever weakness she can find, and she will also follow the warm water. Basically, since there is nothing to move her, she will just keep plowing along in the direction she is heading.

As convection ebbs and flows, she will wobble in the direction of the strongest convection (right now that is the west side of the storm). This is why a lot of Mets (Bastardi/Cosgrove/etc) are bringing Galveston/Houston back intot he MIx -- Rita is wobbling that way, the warmest water is that way, and as the ridge retreats the weakness is that way.

[Dog Gone]

Wow... wife just reported WalMart here in NW San Antonio pretty much cleaned out... long long lines at the gas pumps... and it is 8:30 at night? The storm isn't even supposed to come close to here.

That's a little ridiculous. However, I'd fill up tomorrow if I could. The Houston refineries are shut down. That's on top of the ones Katrina knocked out. Gasoline will be in short supply next week, and price will ration it. It might easily get to 4 bucks a gallon or more in the short term. It'll drop quickly thereafter when the Houston refineries refire, assuming they don't have much damage.

Joe Bastardi is still sticking with his Galveston/High Island landfall prediction. That's a worse case scenario for the refineries.

[CajunConservative]

The lower parishes were under mandatory evacuation yesterday and the other parishes have been under voluntary evacuation since Tuesday morning. They have been evacuating the elderly, special needs, prisoners, nursing homes and hospitals since at least Tuesday. The mandatory evacuation was given early this morning. They have also been running the buses since yesterday. Trust me when I say that people are evacuating in droves. I was lucky to know the backroads to my sister's house because the traffic is BAD on the official evacuation routes.

[Zacs Mom]

Oh man - if you hadn't asked me I could tell you ... lol... I'm drawing a blank! But then I'm a bit sleep deprived right now.

I am currently debating whether I should go lay down and get some rest or if I should go eat all the ice cream thats in the freezer in case we lose power on Saturday or Sunday! ;^)