Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part IV

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Rita continues to threaten the Greater Houston Metropolitan area. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the northeast, increasing the risk to Southwest Louisiana, and a significant portion of the oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Texas Governor Perry is urging all coastal residents between Beaumont and Corpus Christi to evacuate as soon as possible.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston/Beaumont/Lake Charles Wx Watches/Warnings
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Louisiana
Hi Res Houston Flood Zone Map Slow load, great detail

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KPRC-TV/DT Houston - KPRC-TV/DT Houston - http://mfile.akamai.com/12944/live/reflector:38616.asx
KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

FReeper Sign In Thread Check in to let us know whether you are staying, going, and when you get there
FReepers Offering Lodging To Rita Evacuees People and/or Pet Friendly FReepers Offering Shelter
Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
Beaumont TX evac Routes
Lake Charles/Southwest LA Evacuation Map
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles Evac Routes, news
KFDM Beaumont/Port Arthur News, evac info
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston
Galveston Webcams
Golden Triangle Weather Page Provides Galveston Weather, Warnings, Radar, etc.

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part III
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[steveegg]

pressure still supports a 5..doesn't that either say the pressure or wind speed at 145 is off?

Or the relationship between pressure and wind speed needs to be rethought. Rita has had consistently weaker winds than the pressure/satellite would suggest. While the 913 mb from the AF flight was actually an extrapolation, it was backed up by a NOAA flight that did measure 913 mb (and 133-knot flight-level winds in the NW quad) about 2:10 pm.

[Bahbah]

Houston is using city trucks to try to get fuel out to the people stranded, and TxDOT is using their assistance pickups to try to get cars enough gas to get to the next fuel stop.

What, they are not screaming at FEMA to come to their rescue and otherwise just sitting on their hands, sobbing or engaging in foul mouthed tirades. How novel of them.

[Centurion2000]

It is my understanding that in heat like this, WATER ALONE is not enough; you must have something like Gatorade, etc., with that stuff in in -- what, I cannot remember now).

You need water, salt and some bananas. Sodium and potassium (electrolyte) depletion in your body will give you some killer headaches and cramps.

[fanfan]

Do not use it inside.

[Strategerist]

pressure still supports a 5..doesn't that either say the pressure or wind speed at 145 is off?

Not at all. The pressure guidlines for various categories are VERY rough guidlines.

Pressures have NOTHING to do with wind speed.

Pressure GRADIENTS (the difference in pressure across a given distance) cause a given wind speed. If the pressures around a storm aren't that high, then even if the pressures are very low in the storm, you won't have as much wind as you expect. Around Andrew, for example, the pressures were very high..thus with 922mb you had Cat 5 winds. During this eyewall replacement, the pressure gradient in the core of Rita has weakened, creating a broader windfield but with a lower maximum wind, despite the pressure being WELL below that of Andrew at landfall.

However, the very unfortunate myth that there is a specific, precise windspeed that must be associated with a given pressure has taken hold. Once of the main purveyors of this myth, incidentally, is a certain well known AccuWeather TV personality.

[Brad’s Gramma]

Well, hi then in reply to your never mind.

:)

10 and counting, if ya scroll up a bit on this thread.

[WxMan2000]

More likely the wind speed is off. The pressure is directly measured in the eye by a dropsonde...and even the extrapolated pressure is pretty accurate. NHC bases the storm's wind speed off the recon reports. If the recon misses the strongest winds when it penetrates the eyewall, then it can appear that the strom is weaker when the pressure says otherwise.

[NautiNurse]

There is that 2% outlier...

[Tuxedo]

This same thing happened with Katrina... pressure at landfall should have equated to Cat 5 winds.... this also occurred when pressures were 902mb and wind speed should have been higher. Maybe for larger storms such as these, the rules get bent a bit.

[DallasMike]

The 5-day forecast shows that Rita may stick around North Texas for a while:

 

 

 

 

 

[pamlet]

Lovely... I wonder how accurate he is? It's SEEMS there are SO many possibilities - but there is so much action SO much earlier than other storms... I guess it's really no different...

Maybe we'll get some rain here afterall - I was beginning to think it would be a fairly quiet weekend...

[Dog]

I'm always on my best behavior.

[texianyankee]

I saw Bastardi on the TV either yesterday or the day before.
The interviewer (i forget) tried to steer Bastardi into the "global warming blame" - Bastardi wouldnt hear of it!

He stated we go through cycles where storms will be more prolific & more intense. He further stated that he believes that for the last couple of seasons we have been in such a cycle and we will continue to be so for a few more years.

Bastardi was adamant!(sp?)

[ladyjane]

California gets hundreds of quakes in a week.

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/

[Petronski]

Fox just reported seepage from waterlogged dikes in New Orleans. If another dike fails, it would be a pretty big story.

[Miss Marple]

I knew it! I am now waiting for the New Madrid fault to let loose.

[johnb838]

Happy! Happy! :) :) My buddy got some plywood from Home Depot, happened to be there when the truck pulled in, so I get to go in my truck to help him haul it home. Happy!

I was really, really getting bored sitting here waiting for the axe to fall.

[burzum]

That's a bunch of BS. 10 747s of super absorbent gel aint going to slow it down by anything measurable. The energy of this storm is equivalent to over 15 hiroshimas per second.

This is not entirely correct. The kinetic energy of the wind is equivalent to 15 Hiroshima type blasts perhaps. Lower scale hurricanes are usually described as equivalent to 1 Hiroshima type blast. But this doesn't take into account a few factors. First, the wind doesn't stop every second and suddenly regenerate itself. The statement 'per second' that is widely quoted was added by someone who did not have a strong knowledge of physics. Kinetic energy is energy, and kinetic energy 'per second' is power. Second, the vast amount of energy of a hurricane is not stored in the wind. It is stored in the water evaporating. When the water evaporates at sea level it cools the ocean medium. Eventually when the water rises up above the hurricane and precipitates, it releases its latent heat of condensation. This heats the remaining dry air allowing it to rise further. Additionally, the condensation causes a drop in pressure (since water vapor has about 1000 times the volume of liquid water). Both of these factors aid each other to make it more likely for water to evaporate (with a lower pressure) and to create strong winds (by a difference in pressure and by the movement of the dry air). While there is some equilibrium value for the evaporation and condensation that you could calculate in one second to determine the power of a hurricane, I highly doubt it would compare with the power of 15 Hiroshima type blasts (at the peak of the reaction). I also highly doubt that if you calculated the energy of the entire hurricane (taking into account the latent heat of condensation of all the water that will condensate and the kinetic energy of the wind) over its entire high power lifespan (Cat 4 or 5) that it would be able to compare with 15 * 20 kilotons/sec * 3600 sec/hr * 24 hours/day * 2 days (the energy of 15 Hiroshima type blasts per second over 2 days--51,840 Megatons)

[Howlin]

Where?

[redgolum]

My current longarm of choice is the Saiga 12 AK-based semi-auto mag fed shotgun. With lots of extra mags (but I still want more).

I shot one of those once and was very impressed. I figured it would pattern badly and have a lot of functional problems. They seem to be a great shotgun.

I would prefer the .45 ACP over the GAP. The GAP can't do anything better then the ACP, but the ACP can do more. Still, if you have smaller hands that is a good step up.

Me, I have fingers like sausages and huge hands. I like the old 1911 grips.