Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[johnb838]

evaculate

[steveegg]

Changes from the previous Vortex Data Message with an eye fix 49 minutes prior:

- Position 5 minutes north and 14 minutes west
- Pressure down 3 mb to 920 mb
- Max flight-level wind up 11 knots to 153 knots and in a different quad (previous was in the NE quad, this one is in the W quad)
- Eyewall 20 nm wide (stadium eyewall no longer noted)

[LA Woman3]

Just the first sip, the first taste, of the bitter cup that has been proferred to us by climate change, which THIS administration has ignored, by failing to sign Kyoto protocol. -- Algore


The irony of that statement is Galveston had snow this past December. We were there and had a white Christmas!

[Howlin]

CNN calling her a 5. 150 mph.

[Xenalyte]

Do any of y'all happen to recall where the animated map of the storm surge lives?

I saw it on a thread yesterday and didn't bookmark it.

[HostileTerritory]

A question, for anyone in Austin or who knows about what this storm may bring.

My sister is flying down from New Jersey tomorrow to attend the City Limits (?) Music Festival in Austin on Saturday. It's an outdoor festival. She has a hotel and isn't scheduled to fly back to New Jersey until Monday.

What could a hurricane do to Austin, which is 200 miles inland? Is it scheduled to pour rain on the city? That, at least, would shut the festival down and take away the only reason to go.

On the other hand, I could see the festival waiting until the last minute to cancel so ticketholders don't get pissed.

If it were me, I'd cancel, but it's her, and she's already spent the money. If being in Austin for Rita is the equivalent of being in, I don't know, Little Rock or Memphis for Katrina, is their cause for panic?

[Howlin]

Dropping like a rock.

[Moose4]

The winds in the vortex reports are the winds at "flight level," whatever altitude the hurricane hunters are flying. It's either 5000 or 15000 feet, I forget which. Those winds are typically 10-20% or more higher than the ground-level winds. The NHC takes the flight level winds and applies a factor to back them down to estimated ground level winds. So the plane recorded 153 kt, which is 175 mph; the forecaster(s) at the NHC will probably estimate 150-155 mph on the ground based on that.

I don't know whether they can drop dropsondes or other such things to actually measure ground-level winds, or if they just measure the wind at their altitude and extrapolate it. But whichever, don't look at those vortex reports and automatically think those are the ground-level winds.

}:-)4

[queenkathy]

Katrina's eye resembled a 5 sided wall. Is that normal?

[montanus]

why did they say 150 MPH when its obviously 153 KNOTS?

That's 153 knots at flight level. They're using a multiply of .85 to estimate what surface level winds are.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Tell them to buy a Texas road map at a gas station or grocery store. Should be able to get one in Columbus or La Grange. Best advice would be to leave Sheridan by going a couple miles west and then north on TX 155 to La Grange. Try to go all the way north to Waco before cutting over eastbound on Hwy 31, which is 4 lane from west of Corsicana to Tyler and near I-20. After that they'll have several options between Tyler and Shreveport to head north to I-30, several of them 4 lane. If US 77 from La Grange to Waco is too crowded with evacuees, there are numerous side highways that they could cut NE across the traffic starting from La Grange north. Could even go east to Brenham and Navasota before heading N. to Madisonville and Crockett, however the closer in to Houston, the more crowded portions of that route would be. I'd recommend not crossing I-45 south of Buffalo, they could weave up to Hearne and then take US79 to Palestine and north.

Best thing to do is for them to get a state highway map and then play it by ear. There are lots and lots of backroads and lesser highways.

[steveegg]

Some of the wx people think Avila is being too conservative with his winds, but that pressure is scary...

He'll catch up by the 4 pm CDT advisory.

[OB1kNOb]

Yellow - mobile rig locations
Gray - fixed manned platforms

According to Rigzone.

[WoodstockCat]

I don't trust "first calls" from CNN

[johnb838]

Ooh, that's hypnotizing... like a mouse hypnotized by the snake.

[HostileTerritory]

Please see my recent post a little above this--what can you tell me about the prospects for Austin?

[MikefromOhio]

that still comes out to 155 MPH....

besides they generally use .90 as the multiplier...

[dogbyte12]

The scale really needs to be addressed one of these days. You can have a tight 4 storm that is "small", it can do a lot less damage than a big fat 3.

I hope that is one change that comes eventually. Perhaps you add together wind speed, size of storm, length of hurricane winds, length of tropical storm winds, pressure in a formulation. It sounds more complicated, but I think it would be more helpful.

[Liberty Valance]

Just recieved an email from my good friend in Houston...
He is evacuating he and his entire family to Bandera. (about 20 miles from me) Said his timeshare property there is now looking like a much better investment than he'd thought earlier. ;o)

Thanks for these threads NautiNurse...you are FReeper of the year!

[Howlin]

http://flare.creighton.edu/martinelli/ats113/Calendarfiles/NOTRstadiumeffect.jpg