Posted on 09/20/2005 1:58:12 PM PDT by Leroy S. Mort
he Associated Press-Ipsos poll on public attitudes about President Bush, the nation's top issues and Hurricane Katrina is based on telephone interviews with 1,000 adults in all states except for Alaska, Hawaii and areas recovering from hurricane damage or under threat of a hurricane. The interviews were conducted Sept. 16-18 by Ipsos, an international polling firm.
Because of the damage by Katrina, Ipsos was unable to interview respondents in Louisiana, Mississippi and in southwest Alabama. Because of the threat of Hurricane Ophelia, Ipsos did not call people in the coastal areas of the Carolinas.
Results were weighted to represent the population by demographic factors such as age, sex, region, race and income.
No more than one time in 20 should chance variations in the sample cause the results to vary by more than 3 percentage points from the answers that would be obtained if all Americans were polled. The margin of error for the questions asked of a half sample was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
There are other sources of potential error in polls, including the wording and order of questions. Results may not total 100 percent because of rounding. An X signifies less than 1 percent.
Some questions in the poll were held out for later use.
(ASKED OF HALF THE SAMPLE)
A. I'm going to read you a list of EIGHT issues and I'm going to read the list twice. Please tell me which ONE should be the highest priority for President Bush and the U.S. Congress in the next few months:
(Results from late August in parentheses)
The economy and jobs, 25 percent (14)
The situation in Iraq, 19 percent (29)
Energy and gas prices, 17 percent (24)
Terrorism, 11 percent (9)
Health care, 10 percent (7)
Education, 7 percent (5)
Social Security, 5 percent (5)
Taxes, 2 percent (3)
Recovery from Hurricane Katrina (VOLUNTEERED), 1 percent (no trend available)
Other, 1 percent
Not sure, 2 percent
(ASKED OF THE OTHER HALF OF THE SAMPLE)
B. I'm going to read you a list of NINE issues and I'm going to read the list twice. Please tell me which ONE should be the highest priority for President Bush and the U.S. Congress in the next few months:
Recovery from Hurricane Katrina, 29 percent
The situation in Iraq, 19 percent
The economy and jobs, 16 percent
Energy and gas prices, 14 percent
Terrorism, 6 percent
Health care, 5 percent
Social Security, 4 percent
Education, 3 percent
Taxes, 1 percent
Other, 2 percent
Not sure, 1 percent
Overall, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
(Early September results are in parentheses)
Approve, 40 percent (39)
Disapprove, 57 percent (59)
Mixed feelings, 2 percent (1)
Not sure, 1 percent (1)
When it comes to handling the relief effort for Hurricane Katrina, do you approve, disapprove or have mixed feelings about the way George W. Bush is handling that issue?
(Results from early September in parentheses)
Approve, 46 percent (46)
Disapprove, 51 percent (52)
Mixed feelings, 2 percent (1)
Not sure, 1 percent (1)
(QUESTIONS ON IRAQ SPENDING ASKED OF HALF OF SAMPLE)
A. As you may know, the U.S. Congress has appropriated $260 billion to fight the war and help rebuild Iraq. What best describes how you feel about the federal spending on the rebuilding of Iraq?
We are spending too much, 65 percent
We are spending the right amount, 27 percent
We should spend more, 6 percent
Not sure, 2 percent
B. How confident are you that the money being appropriated to rebuild Iraq is being spent wisely?
Very confident, 7 percent
Somewhat confident, 28 percent
Not too confident, 31 percent
Not at all confident, 33 percent
Not sure, 1 percent
TOTAL CONFIDENT - 35 percent
TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT - 64 percent
If you had to choose, which one of the following options do you think is the best way for the government to pay for the relief effort for Hurricane Katrina?
Cut spending on Iraq, 42 percent
Delay or cancel additional tax cuts, 29 percent
Add to the federal debt and gradually pay it back, 14 percent
Cut spending for other domestic programs like education, welfare, transportation and health care, 11 percent
Not sure, 4 percent
On the Net:
Ipsos - http://www.ap-ipsosresults.com
At 40% Bush is doing great....
MORE BUSH NUMBERS (CONT'D) [Byron York]
On the other hand, I recently asked Gallup to send me a chart of every presidential job approval it had ever taken -- they go back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. What it shows is that every president in the last 40 years has had a low point in which his job approval ratings went into the 40s or 30s, and sometimes lower.
Bill Clinton hit 39 percent job approval in August and September 1994. George H.W. Bush hit 29 percent in July 1992, and 33 percent in October of that year. Ronald Reagan hit 35 percent in January 1983. Jimmy Carter hit 28 percent in June 1979. Gerald Ford hit 37 percent in March 1975. Richard Nixon spent most of 1974 in the 20s, hitting 24 percent just before his resignation. And Lyndon Johnson hit 35 percent in August 1968.
Looks as if the speech from last week did allot of good. I was expecting a slight bounce...
B. How confident are you that the money being appropriated to rebuild Iraq is being spent wisely?
Very confident, 7 percent
Somewhat confident, 28 percent
Not too confident, 31 percent
Not at all confident, 33 percent
Not sure, 1 percent
TOTAL CONFIDENT - 35 percent
TOTAL NOT CONFIDENT - 64 percent
I don't want to be too picky, but I'd put 'Not too confident' in the 'Total Confident' instead of the 'Total Not Confident' total. Or not summarize them to begin with.
AP Poll:
Democrats oversampled over Republicans by 10 POINTS.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr050920-1top.pdf&id=2787
No surprise there.
This is even though in the 2004 Election the GOP and Dems voted equally.
As bad as things have been for the president and fact he is losing Republicans and independents, who knows the percentage of Republicans could have dropped to from what it was at election. Even before the past month there were all the conservative kooks that care about nothing about immigration or the deficit that were upset with Bush. May be the Dems do outnumber the Republicans. Only thing that can save us is when the DEms open their mouths.
Actually, this poll is garbage.
Bush hit "All-Time Lows" in March 2003, September 2003, January 2004, April 2004 and May 2004.
Polls had Bush as low as 41% among 'likely voters' and 38% among 'national adults' as late as May 2004.
People have not changed their minds. Pollsters have changed their samples.
"AP Poll: Democrats oversampled over Republicans by 10 POINTS. http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr050920-1top.pdf&id=2787"
Thanks for the link. These polls are not based on a true random sample. The demographics are skewed along with the results. It also supports the issue of polling over a weeked (more dems sitting at home drunk hoping for someone to call...where as repubs are out and about - and maybe still drunk). I wish they would show a split on the approval rating based on party affiliation. At least someone could then calc a weighted number. The pollsters say they don't like to do that because party affiliations change. Maybe over the long run, but not this dramatic in less than a year.
CBS/NYTimes Poll: Iraq Taking Toll On Bush
NEW YORK, May 24, 2004
The President’s approval rating has dropped to a new low of 41 percent, and more than six in ten say the country is heading in the wrong direction.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/24/opinion/polls/main619122.shtml
Newsweek Poll: Bad Days for Bush
With news from Iraq becoming ever bleaker, the president’s numbers are way down.
May 15 - As his administration grapples with the fallout from the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, President George W. Bush’s approval ratings have dropped to 42 percent, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll, a low for his presidency. Fifty-seven percent say they disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq. And 62 percent say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, a number that has been steadily increasing since April, 2003, when it was 41 percent.
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/4986882/
ZOGBY POLL:
Released: May 16, 2004
Bush's Job Approval Drops to Record Low 42%; Kerry Up By 5 Points Over Bush 47%-42%; Iraq Disapproval Rate Rises to 64%; Majority Says US Headed in the Wrong Direction and "It's Time for Someone New" New Zogby International Poll Reveals
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826
this is a push poll.
All AP-Ipsos polls are push polls.
Garbage in garbage out.
The list of areas not sampled because of hurricane damage represents possibly 10% of Bush's support. These polls are absurd.
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