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Posted on 09/20/2005 6:16:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Rita is in the Florida Straits, impacting the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for numerous portions of South Florida. Check local weather statements for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami (NBC6)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (CBS 4)
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (Fox)
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18
and "see" you tomorrow, onyx!
Sleep well, onyx...prayers for ALL..
Do you have a stationary generator?
If so what type?
We are putting one in 12,000 watts so we can continue our medical home health care needs, well, washer, fridge and lights.
We are looking at an Onan fueled by a Natural Gas tank and the auto switch into the circuit breaker.
Interested in any feedback since it is going to be a survival investment.
Like you are health care needs cannot be reproduced outside of our set up here at the House.
King Vanity is covered for formula and supplies for two months out but for me I was wondering about food.
Our home is safe from flood/tsunami but the road below would most likely wash out on the Bay rd. One way in and out.
I would have the fridge and I have lotsa frozen food portions in the freeze portion so I would be good for two weeks.
Are MRE's as bad as they say? How long is the shelf life? I am on a restricted diet but in a major emergency I would eat the snickers in the MRE's and not care, they do have snickers don't they?
Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 am EDT...0600z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 24.2 north... longitude 84.0 west or about 80 miles...130 km... west-southwest of Dry Tortugas...about 145 miles... 235 km... west of Key West Florida and about 130 miles... 210 km...northwest of Havana Cuba.
Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours...which will take the center of Rita into the open southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. Data from the Key West NOAA Doppler radar indicate maximum sustained winds have now increased to near 115 mph...185 km/hr... with higher gusts. Rita is now a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Rita is expected to become a category four hurricane sometime later today.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. The automated station at the Dry Tortugas reported sustained winds of 65 mph and a gust to 87 mph before contact with the station was lost.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are still possible in the Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern Florida coast. Storm surge values will gradually decrease today in all areas.
Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula...with isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches. Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible over western Cuba and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over portions of western Cuba.
Isolated tornadoes will be possible over South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and early Wednesday.
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.2 N... 84.0 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
My parents loved cats. I am used to them. My favorites were a cat named Kookie, with a bent tail, and a Maine Coon named Tawney, both of whom seemingly adored me as kid, and demanded to get into my room whenever I was there. The Maine Coon would fetch for you, and follow you on walkies along the street. I am totally a cat person. How could I not be? The thunder thing was quite loud. It woke me up.
I hope your husband is right.
Before the 2005 hurricane season is done, you might read about Hurricane Alpha.
Each year, 21 common names are reserved for Atlantic Basin hurricanes, with the list arranged alphabetically and skipping certain letters. Rita is the 17th named storm in the Atlantic Basin this year. There are only four left.
Excerpt...click headline for rest of article...
In a word, yes.
Empty store shelves and panic shopping is somethig I got used to living in Delaware - a prediction of an inch of snow and there was no bread, milk or water in the stores - I can only imagine what the stores looked like there last week after TWC and other networks mentioned "Delmarva".....
this far south on Delmarva, where you will hit the Atlantic or the Chesapeake going less than 15 miles east or west, folks are more pragmatic and prepared. We went grocery shopping Tuesday evening, the first day Delmarva was mentioned - for no other reason than we were due for a trip.......there was hardly anyone in the store - we actually had 4 people bagging our 2 carts full of groceries.
:)better news.Make pretend there is no storm and go to sleep.
data from an Air Force Reserve unit recon aircraft at 21/0020z in the northeast quadrant indicated 700 mb flight-level winds of 103 kt...roughly 93 kt surface winds. Doppler radar velocities from Key West have been as high as 113 kt at 9500 feet in spots...with the majority of the highest values in the 105-107 kt range...which equals about 95 kt surface winds. A recon pass through the 28 nmi diameter eye at 0204z indicated a surface pressure of 965 mb... which roughly equals 95 kt. Therefore...the initial intensity has been increased to 95 kt...or just below major hurricane strength.
The initial motion is 275/11. Rita is expected to continue moving a little north of due west for the next 36-48 hours as the strong ridge to the north remains intact along the Gulf Coast and into central and northern Texas. The 18z GFS and GFS-ensemble models have shifted eastward to near the Texas-Louisiana border. However ...Both models were forecasting the 21/00z 500 mb heights across Texas to decrease by 20 meters...when in fact... 21/00z upper-air data indicate The Heights did not change and the mid-level high over northwest Texas has remained quite strong with heights near 6000 meters. As a result...less weight was palced on the GFS model ...Since it appears to be decreasing the strength of the ridge too quickly...the official forecast track is just an update and extension of the previous advisory track...and is close to the NHC model consensus.
The previous advisory indicating rapid intensification for the next 24 hours appears to be on track. During the past 14 hours...the central pressure has decreased 20 mb...or at a rate of about 2 Dvorak T-numbers per 24 hours. While such a large pressure fall trend rarely occurs for more than 24 hours...the very favorable upper-level outflow pattern and 30c-31c SSTs beneath Rita suggest that rapid intensification should continue for at least another 24 hours. A poleward outflow channel is well established with outflow accumulating into a large upper-level low...or mass sink...east of the Bahamas. In addition... an equatorward outflow channel also appears to be developing. Given the dual outflow pattern that is expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours...strengthening into a category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility. By 72 hours... a gradual increase in the southwesterly vertical shear is expected to bring about some weakening. However...the GFS-based SHIPS model that is indicating 25-30 kt of shear may be including the winds associated with the strong outflow pattern depicted by the model. This would mean that the GFS shear is too high...and thus...the sharp GFS weakening of Rita down to 99 kt at landfall would be premature. The official intensity forecast leans closer to the FSU superensemble intensity forecast of 122 kt in 48 hours and 126 kt in 60 hours.
Forecaster Stewart forecast positions and Max winds
initial 21/0300z 24.1n 83.2w 95 kt
12hr VT 21/1200z 24.2n 85.2w 105 kt
24hr VT 22/0000z 24.4n 87.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 22/1200z 24.6n 89.4w 125 kt
48hr VT 23/0000z 25.1n 91.4w 125 kt
72hr VT 24/0000z 27.1n 94.7w 120 kt
96hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 96.5w 60 kt...inland
120hr VT 26/0000z 34.5n 96.5w 25 kt...dissipating inland
You know, I actually saw Stewart on a Discovery Channel show!
I was too young to remember Alicia except vaguely, but apparently this part of Houston (near NW) had no power for three days. As of today, local stores are already out of bottled water. I'll be following news closely to guide decision-making.
The anemometers have usually blown away once winds get too high, so I guess you can say they lose contact.
I lived in Sugar Land in '83 when Alicia hit...I lost nothing...
Perfect for using for cooking - definitely not for drinking.
agree with all!
sleep well.
Try to get some rest.You can move quickly with your diceisions tom.If you wake up make a list of important papers to take and just move.I gotta go to bed,God bless,fatima
I live in La Porte TX kind of sandwhiched between houston and galveston
originally from way south mississippi
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