Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Alkhin]

Been here all my life, never once heard about Oyster Creek flooding out of its banks... but with all the buildup along the way (Sugarland etc) not sure what the drainage is going to be. I am worrying more about wind damage than the creek...but it seems like 2005 is proving to be a year of pulling the carpet out from everyone's feet.

Do y'all have a place to go??

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

If your sister lives in Midland Texas she probably was confused as to that wet stuff falling from the sky........probably doesn't see much of that in West Texas......;^)

[Redbob]

Thanks, I didn't think of the EMS website!
Thanks very much; if that forecast holds, it'll mean my trip is still on.

[Diddle E. Squat]

NOGAPS 12Z still has Brownsville:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_PUBLIC_area.cgi?dtg=2005091912&area=ngp_namer

[johnb838]

"they just do".

ESP? No, really, animals can tell by the pressure drop but we don't have falling pressure yet, and it's going to be a freaking hundred degrees out today.

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 7a
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2005

 
...Rita nearing hurricane strength over the central Bahamas...

 
at 2 PM EDT...1800z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued
all warnings for the turks and caicos.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Exumas and for Andros
Island in the northwest Bahamas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for all of the remainder of the Bahamas.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the extreme southern Florida
Peninsula from Golden Beach southward to Florida City and westward
to East Cape Sable...and for all of the Florida Keys from Ocean
Reef to the Dry Tortugas...including Florida Bay.

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa
Clara and Matanzas.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the
provinces of Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio.  A
tropical storm watch remains in effect for the provinces of Ciego
de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
Deerfield Beach Florida southward to north of Golden Beach...and a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach
northward to Jupiter Inlet.

 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the extreme southwestern Florida
Peninsula from west of East Cape Sable northward to
Chokoloskee...and a tropical storm watch is in effect for the
southwestern Florida coast from north of Chokoloskee to Englewood.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to 
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  A
Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within
the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  A
tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was located
near latitude 23.1 north... longitude 75.9 west or about 30 miles
south-southwest of Georgetown on great Exuma in the central
Bahamas.  This position is about 165 miles... 265 km... southeast
of Nassau and about 380 miles east-southeast of Key West Florida.

 
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph... 23 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. 
On this track...the center of Rita will pass over or near Andros
Island in the Bahamas tonight...and approach the Florida Keys
Tuesday morning.

 
Data from the stepped frequency microwave radiometer onboard a NOAA
hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 70 mph...115 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours... and Rita could become a
hurricane later today or tonight.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles
...230 km from the center.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  993 mb...29.32 inches.

 
Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6
inches over the southeastern and central Bahamas...with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.  Rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches possible for eastern and central Cuba.  Storm totals of
6 to 10 inches...with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches...will
be possible in the Florida Keys and northwestern Cuba...with 3 to 5
inches possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.

 
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the
Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow.  Coastal storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern
Florida coast...and in the northwestern Bahamas.

 
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...23.1 N... 75.9 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Knabb

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Well I'll go anywhere if I need to - daughter in Lubbock.......... lol

[bwteim]

SwinneySwitch has the inside dope as to where it is heading...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1487405/posts?page=7#7

[hobson]

LOL! Very true. Especially since the rain was horizontal.

[No Blue States]

(Beaumont area, Texas)

"A direct hit from a Category 5 hurricane could cause a storm tide as high as 19 feet above normal along the coastline. Waves would extend an additional 10-15 feet above this catastrophic tide. All coastal communities within 10 miles of the upper Texas coastline would be under seawater ranging in depth from 5 to 30 feet above sea level.

In addition, rivers located within 50 miles east of where the storm made landfall would be filling up to between flood stage and bankfull with salt water and flowing northward, inland, instead of southward toward the Gulf."

http://www.kfdm.com/hurricane_surgemap.shtml

[AntiGuv]

When Hurricane Fran came through Carolina in Sept 96 I was camping in the Triangle. I didn't even know a hurricane was on the way. It was an ..um.. interesting experience watching the trees crash down into the lake.. Have you ever tried to light a cigarette outside in a hurricane? You can't. A car lighter will work though. =) I was 150 miles or so inland from landfall BTW.

Then there was Hugo in the SC Low Country, but I was too busy hiding to watch the trees.. I sure could hear them though..

[onyx]

380 miles east, southeast of Key West right now.

[rodguy911]

Here is our offshore waters forecast from the NOAA data boys for tomorrow in the Keys.
Winds NE at 60-75 knots with higher hurricane force gusts, seas 15-20 feet, except near the center of Rita where they will be 25-30 feet, looks like a bad fishing day.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

I'm sure your sister says this as well, but we lived in West Texas and used to say that humidity would count in our rainfall, so we never had humid days out there

[Redbob]

" I heard the other day one of the reasons gas proces are going down was because the demand was down."

Funny how that works!

Supply vs demand...

[Jacktown]

I have 5 feeders out and the last week or so at least 30 hummingbirds have shown up. We had the same thing happen last year. It's strange to see so many of them. We normally have 5 or 6. I'm in central Mississippi near Jackson.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern Florida coast...and in the northwestern Bahamas.

Isn't that gonna totally swamp anything on the Keys?

Link to a map of the Keys:

http://www.florida-keys.fl.us/maps/mainmap.htm

[kingu]

New UKM model up...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005091912&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Model predicts major hurricane hitting Freeport dead square; Galveston on the north quarter, and very large footprint. (Second run of the model using the same path.)

[AntiGuv]

How close were you to the landfall? You were practically in Cat 5 winds right? The two most noteworthy hurricanes I've experienced were both Cat 1 at my location, and that was more than enough excitement for me.

[Lanza]

I lived at Hilcroft and Bellaire during Alicia, and I was without electric for a week. There were flooded parking lots, and roofs torn off the third floor apartments. Luckily, I was on the second floor. Lots of grilling and partying that week - I was only 20!

Now I live in ClearLake, and I am outta here if Rita comes!