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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband
Other Resources:
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Once she gets into the gulf it willbe game on. She will reach CAT 4 at least but should weaken just before landfall back to CAT 3. Everyone from Brownsville to New Orleans needs to be on guard, and anyone from Corpus Christi to Lake Charles should be packing up and preparing to get out of dodge.
If Rita comes ashore in Texas around the Tx/La state line then NO will be at least 200 miles [+/-] east of the eye. If it's west of Houston then add more.
at 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Warning is extended along the Florida West Coast from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for all of the Florida Keys...and from Golden Beach on the Florida southeast coast southward to East Cape Sable then northward to Chokoloskee.
Rita's wind and rain field are growing by the hour, and all indications are she will be a large storm. Anything Houston or East will be bad news for NO IMO.
We really need this puppy to take the straight west track. Sorry Padre Island/Corpus Christi.
Now a "hurricane" warning.
437 miles from Tampa Bay. Local weather dude says, looks like Texas not us but it's too early to call imo. By Thursday, I think we'll have a better idea about what Rita's up to.
A hit in TX will not do much harm to NO.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
0z models still show even the northernmost ones only giving SE LA a glancing blow at most.
The more westerly track makes more sense than does the track to LA.
Someone on Fox News yesterday said 3 inches of rain (now) would put NO under water again.
WFLA reporting that hospital patients evac from the Keys are in Sebring, among other places.
Thanks for the ping.
Place marker
(but I bet NautiNurse has a new thread up her sleeve)
I think they will catch some of the swells and I don't think those patchwork levees can handle much.
Please, please, PLEASE---NO more Snake PICTURES>>>(she says) in a scream!!!
Ed Rappaport says they are expecting to find hurricane force winds within the next 3-6 hours of recon. Anticipating hurricane force winds to extend 30-50 miles from center.
The lake would need to rise a fair amount for major problems. It could happen, but if it tracks far enough south, it will be hard to get the worst swells into the NO area. Rain could be a problem, but if it's south... they won't get a ton. Certainly worth watching, but there is no real data indicating more peril for NO at this point in time.
I had to turn it off, when ABC showed Clinton...that buffoon...instead of the induction of the triplets into the Ring of Honor at Texas Stadium....
Come to think of it...Clinton makes Michael Irvin look like a choir boy!!!
Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 9
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2005
Rita remains just under hurricane strength. The storm produced a
massive burst of cold convection near the center during the
evening...and radar imagery indicated an increase in banding.
However...this increase in organization has not yet produced
significant intensification. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
has reported maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt 39 N mi
northwest of of the center...and a center dropsonde of 992 mb with
33 kt surface winds. Based on the this...the central pressure is
990 mb...and the initial intensity remains 60 kt.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/12...uncertain
because the short-term motion seems to be a little more to the
left. Other than that...there is little change in the forecast
philosophy for the first 72 hr. A strong deep-layer ridge along
the northern Gulf Coast should steer Rita on a general
west-northwestward to westward track...and all guidance agrees with
this scenario. After 72 hr...there is some divergence in the
handling of the Gulf Coast ridge. The UKMET and NOGAPS keep the
ridge somewhat farther west...thus forecasting Rita to move into
the lower or middle Texas coasts in 4-5 days time. The GFDL and
GFS call for the ridge to move father eastward and forecast Rita to
make landfall along the middle to Upper Texas coast. The forecast
track after 72 hr will compromise between these two extremes...
calling for a landfall on the middle Texas coast. The track after
72 hr is also a little slower than the guidance consensus due to
the model spread.
Up to now...Rita has had problems developing a well-defined inner
core. This might be due to easterly shear caused by the strong
upper-level high to the east-northeast of the cyclone and an
upper-level low to the south-southwest. Other than that...
conditions appear favorable for strengthening...and it is likely
that Rita will reach hurricane strength in a few hours. The
intensity forecast follows the SHIPS and FSU superensemble...
although stronger than both. The GFDL continues to forecast very
rapid intensification to major hurricane status over the very warm
waters of the Florida Straits. So far this has not happened...but
the GFDL could be right if Rita establishes a better inner core.
There is thus a possibility that Rita could become a major
hurricane before passing the Florida Keys. It should be noted that
the GFDL calls for Rita to peak in 24 hours and then slowly weakens
the storm for the rest of the next five days. This is likely due
to the sea surface temperatures and oceanic heat content of the
Gulf of Mexico being less than those in the Florida
Straits...except in The Loop current.
The initial wind radii were revised based on aircraft data.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0300z 23.3n 77.8w 60 kt
12hr VT 20/1200z 23.7n 79.5w 75 kt
24hr VT 21/0000z 24.2n 82.1w 85 kt
36hr VT 21/1200z 24.5n 84.9w 95 kt
48hr VT 22/0000z 24.8n 87.4w 100 kt
72hr VT 23/0000z 25.5n 91.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 24/0000z 27.5n 94.0w 105 kt
120hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 96.0w 60 kt...inland
Appears alot bigger then 6/8 hours ago, much much bigger.
Wasn't the pressure at 995 earlier this afternoon?
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