| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 09/18/2005 2:02:26 PM PDT by Admin Moderator, reason:
Locked - New Thread http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1486960/posts |
Posted on 09/17/2005 8:09:31 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Should they paint a big bullseye on the Astrodome?
Why all the weird names this year?????
Geeeeeez... not another one! This one "could" get near the Cayman's and my daughter cannot get house insurance because the repairs from Ivan are not completed. :(
Rita? Is that you?
Where's the ridge parked over Houston, TX going? If it's a Texas hit it'll most likely be South Texas 'cause of the ridge building over Houston, TX.
The eastern edge of the forecast cone is disturbingly pointed at New Orleans.. This could easily be a Cat 3 by the time it gets over there, if it makes it over there..
Where did that one come from?
It came from Rove and his double super secret joy stick that steers hurricanes.
Didn't you just ping me to TD # 17?? Geez....
Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 18, 2005 the reconaissance aircraft that was en Route to Tropical Storm Philippe was diverted to the depression...and we very much appreciate the last minute flexibility of the aircrew. When they first got to the depression...they didn't find much...including only 5 kt of west wind and a center southwest of the deep convection. However...on their second pass through they found that the center had migrated or redeveloped closer to the convection... which is now taking on a slightly more banded appearance on the first few images after the satellite eclipse. These observations suggest that the depression is becoming better organized. The peak flight-level winds were 36 kt...which supports an initial intensity estimate of 25 kt. The aircraft data require a relocation of the center to the south and west of the previous track...and this results in a slight southward shift of the official forecast. However...the basic track reasoning remains the same. The depression is expected to move west-northwestward for the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge just east of Florida. After that...high pressure over Texas and the western Gulf should turn the depression westward. The official forecast is in best agreement with the GFS and GFDL guidance. The UKMET is farther south...taking the cyclone across central and western Cuba. The Canadian model is also south of its previous track...taking the center just south of Key West. Upper-level low pressure is centered over central Cuba...and this low is producing some southerly shear over the depression. This should limit intensification in the short term...however...this low is forecast by all the global models to weaken and be replaced by a narrow ridge of high pressure over the next two to three days. This upper pattern...coupled with very warm sea surface temperatures along the path of the cyclone...would favor more rapid development as long as the cyclone avoids the land mass of Cuba. The GFDL is not nearly as agressive as it was earlier today...not making the system a hurricane until it is well into the Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory in bringing the system to hurricane strength and follows a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL guidance. Forecaster Franklin forecast positions and Max winds initial 18/0900z 21.7n 71.2w 25 kt 12hr VT 18/1800z 22.2n 73.0w 30 kt 24hr VT 19/0600z 22.8n 75.3w 35 kt 36hr VT 19/1800z 23.4n 77.5w 45 kt 48hr VT 20/0600z 23.8n 80.0w 55 kt 72hr VT 21/0600z 24.0n 84.5w 65 kt 96hr VT 22/0600z 24.0n 89.5w 75 kt 120hr VT 23/0600z 24.0n 93.5w 80 kt
Tropical Depression Eighteen Advisory Number 2
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 18, 2005 ...Depression organizing east of the Bahamas... A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Interests in South Florida...the Florida Keys...as well as central and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen was re-located near latitude 21.7 north... longitude 71.2 west or about 15 miles... 25 km... north-northwest of Grand Turk island and about 455 miles... 730 km...east-southeast of Nassau. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph ...19 km/hr. A general motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches. The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over much of the turks and caicos...and over the southeast and central Bahamas...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Repeating the 5 am EDT position...21.7 N... 71.2 W. Movement toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT. Forecaster Franklin
Can I say, "Oh CRAP!!!"
I don't need this one thank you very much.
Have fun and welcome to our state!
Like lobster? Here's an all-u-can-eat lobster buffet nest to Disney. My wife and I love it.
Latest 3 models look to push it more into Texas than into Mexico. The BAM model has it pushing it towards me of course, so I can freak out this week, and contemplate another 6 trees down.
000
WTNT33 KNHC 181159
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
...DEPRESSION CENTERED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST OR OVER
THE CAICOS ISLANDS AND ABOUT 430 MILES... 695 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB... 29.77 INCHES.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.7 N... 71.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
May I join you in the "oh crap" sentiment?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
