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Fred Barnes: Second-Term Blues (Can Bush reconstruct his political fortunes?)
The Weekly Standard ^ | September 26, 2005 | Fred Barnes

Posted on 09/17/2005 1:21:06 PM PDT by RWR8189

PRESIDENT BUSH, LIKE NO president in modern times, has guarded himself against a second-term slump. His most competent aides--the first team--stayed on at the White House. He has a sweeping agenda to keep staff busy and out of trouble. He has a majority in both houses of Congress. The economy, thanks to fresh tax cuts, is booming. Besides all that, Bush has always been lucky in politics.

But with Katrina, his luck betrayed him. There's little defense against a natural disaster that ranks among the worst in American history. Nor is the timing of such an event predictable (Bush and most of his top aides were on vacation). The president's partners in responding to the disaster were a panicky mayor of New Orleans and a do-nothing Louisiana governor. And even if the president had been inclined to deploy federal troops immediately, federal law discouraged him from doing that. So he didn't.

It's the turn in the president's luck and his difficulty in coping with it that has rattled both Bush and his aides. Obviously he can't dismiss his slow response to the hurricane as attributable merely to bad luck. The public wouldn't accept that from a president who prides himself on strong leadership in a crisis. Laying the blame where much of it belongs--on Louisiana officials--would be an act of political pettiness. Americans expect a lot from their presidents, especially when big things happen. Bush couldn't erase those expectations even if he tried. Wisely, he hasn't tried. But the situation has left him a bit flustered.

Two days before his first national address last week on the disaster--and to the surprise of his aides--the president gave an impromptu preview of his speech. The setting was a brief session with reporters as he welcomed Iraqi president Jalal Talabani to the White House. Bush was asked if Americans should be concerned that after Katrina the country isn't ready to deal with another disaster or terrorist attack. The president's response was basically yes.

"Katrina exposed serious problems in our response capability at all levels of government," he said. "And to the extent that the federal government didn't fully do its job right, I take responsibility." The press reveled in this answer, saying it came from a president who never admits mistakes.

The idea of accepting responsibility was on Bush's mind since he had already decided to include it in his speech to the nation from New Orleans two days later. And despite the premature comment, he left it in the speech. "Four years after the frightening experience of September 11th, Americans have every right to expect a more effective response in a time of emergency," he said. "When the federal government fails to meet such an obligation, I as president am responsible for the problem, and for the solution."

Indeed, he is. While Louisiana governor Kathleen Blanco continues to blame the Bush administration for her own failures, the president has fully taken command. He would have liked to give his major speech a week earlier. In fact, he seriously considered it. But he didn't "have his ducks in a row," a Bush adviser said. There hadn't been enough progress in immediate relief efforts on the Gulf Coast and his recovery plan hadn't been pulled together.

In the meantime, Bush has indulged in micromanagement, something he normally eschews. In briefings and discussions, he has delved into specifics. Having visited the disaster zone four times and talked extensively to officials on the ground, Bush has focused on making sure that what he's told in Washington reflects what's actually going on in Louisiana and Mississippi. This is partly a reaction to his feeling that he didn't get an accurate picture of what was happening in New Orleans in the days just after Katrina.

The recovery program Bush announced in his speech is characteristic of his brand of conservatism. It isn't small government conservatism: Washington has a huge role and the cost will be stupendous. But the federal government's job, in Bush's scheme, would be mostly as a catalyst and an example-setter. Of course his "worker recovery accounts" would be a handout to the hurricane victims. The $5,000 per person stipend is higher than initially planned by the administration. Bush himself insisted it be boosted from a lower figure.

The president's proposal would create a Gulf enterprise zone, slashing taxes and waiving regulations to make the area attractive to entrepreneurs. His emphasis on entrepreneurs may sound like Republican boilerplate, but Bush believes it. "It is entrepreneurship that creates jobs and opportunities. It is entrepreneurship that helps break the cycle of poverty, and we will take the side of entrepreneurs as they lead the economic revival of the Gulf region."

Democrats might want to turn the region into one gigantic public housing project, but Bush doesn't. He wants to promote home ownership, a key component of his vision of an "ownership society." Bush wants to open unused federal property to housing. Federal land would be given, through a lottery, to poor people for free. "In return," he said, "they would pledge to build on the lot, with either a mortgage or help from a charitable organization." Republicans, including those appalled at how much Bush wants to spend, will like this idea.

For political salvation, Bush needs more than a big plan. He needs his luck to return. Fortunately for him, the worst predictions of post-Katrina horrors aren't coming true. Instead of 10,000 dead in New Orleans, it's likely to be fewer than 1,000. Rather than pipelines and refineries out of commission for months, they're coming back on line in a matter of days. With luck, the recovery plan will get off the ground quickly, despite Democratic opposition and Republican qualms. And if it does, Bush's personal political recovery will be close behind.

 

Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard. His book on President Bush, Rebel-in-Chief, will be published in January by Crown Forum.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 2ndterm; barnes; bush43; fredbarnes; jobapproval; katrian; katrina; term2
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To: OldFriend

I second that statement! That whole bunch could quit writing and the only thing I would miss is getting annoyed by "so-called" conservative journalist who are inside the beltway and sound like moderates to liberals more and more.


21 posted on 09/17/2005 2:38:45 PM PDT by PhiKapMom (AOII Mom -- Allen in 2008)
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To: Grampa Dave

Thank you for posting a link to my previous post.

Amazingly, it took me only 8 minutes to type it and post it.


22 posted on 09/17/2005 2:42:05 PM PDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: OldFriend

He is a member of 'THE BELTWAY BOYS'.

'THE BELTWAY' is a universe unto itself.

I think Fred needs to get lost out of town to get back to basics.


23 posted on 09/17/2005 2:44:45 PM PDT by new yorker 77 (FAKE POLLS DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO REAL VOTERS!)
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To: new yorker 77

The July section below, probably should read 2005, Sept


2005, July – Bush Job Approval hits new all-time low according to lib media polls.

2005, Sep. – Bush sends General Honore to take control. The military succeeds.

2005, Sep. – Bush delivers speech that uplifts America and demoralizes Democrats.

2005, Sep. - On the verge of having John Roberts confirmed. The Teflon Bork.



24 posted on 09/17/2005 2:46:54 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Jamie Gorelick is responsible for more dead Americans(9-11) than those killed in Iraq.)
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To: RWR8189

Yawn... Bush isn't Clinton. He doesn't have to find an intern to make him feel like a man and he doesn't need the advice of crap-weasel democrats to build a legacy. He is his own legacy like all conservatives. It doesn't take a communist village, it takes one man to be a man.

This is what these jackass communist do not understand.


25 posted on 09/17/2005 2:50:24 PM PDT by Porterville (Liberal Babyboomers will by anything that stinks of hippy.... So crap on a stick and sell baby sell)
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To: Grampa Dave
Thank you Grampa Dave, that list was outstanding. People tend to forget the tremendous job our President has done in such trying times!

Of course, "commentators", like Fred Barnes make for good Monday morning quarterbacking, but I am proud of our President and the job he has done.

Fred needs to get out of the Beltway!
26 posted on 09/17/2005 3:21:00 PM PDT by not2worry (What goes around comes around!)
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To: Sabramerican

Not worth the effort.


27 posted on 09/17/2005 3:27:46 PM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: Grampa Dave

Great summary.


28 posted on 09/17/2005 3:29:16 PM PDT by MEG33 (GOD BLESS OUR ARMED FORCES)
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To: RWR8189
(Can Bush reconstruct his political fortunes?)



He already HAS!
You got the proof from ABC's early "Night Line" with ted "hairy" koppel just after the President's speech in N.O.!!
If you did not see that, you MUST go to: www.rushlimbaugh.com and see a re-play. A huge, huge back fire on the LSM's staged Bush-bashing attempt!!!
29 posted on 09/17/2005 3:29:40 PM PDT by danamco
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To: Sabramerican
Oh, whine, whine, whine! Too bad for you.

President Bush is a good and decent man, who has been hit with more problems than any president since Franklin Roosevelt. Those who attack him from the right are nothing but cowards and opportunists.

If you want to think that the President's successes up to this point are "luck," join Fred Barnes in the dunces' corner.

One hundred years from now, President Bush will be considered on a par with Washington, Lincoln, and Reagan.

30 posted on 09/17/2005 3:32:05 PM PDT by Miss Marple (Lord, please look after Mozart Lover's son and keep him strong.)
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To: OldFriend


LOL! BUMP!


31 posted on 09/17/2005 3:34:29 PM PDT by onyx (North is a direction. South is a way of life.)
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To: RWR8189
The measure of how good President Bush is was on full display during this disaster.

When things go wrong, when people responsible don't do their jobs, he doesn't stand around and blame them. He steps up to the plate and looks for a solution.

If everyone in government would behave that way, this country would be amazing. It is not human nature however, and most take the easy path of blame.

All I can say, is that watching him do this has helped me do a better job in the way I approach the tasks I face—and as a result it has improved my life. I will be forever grateful for his example.

32 posted on 09/17/2005 3:36:39 PM PDT by pollyannaish
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To: ClearCase_guy
Most presidents are not fortunate enough to inherit a recession. Or a major terrorist attack in a US city. And wasn't President Bush lucky that North Korea and Iran are both moving toward nuclear capability at the same time? While our troops are fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq?

Yes he was fortunate. Without inheriting the recession there would have been no tax cuts. Without the terrorist attack, Bush would not have become a dominant figure in Americn politics which helped give Republicans clear majorities in both Houses. Without troops fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq Bush might have been forced into attempting to take out North Korea or Iran's nuclear capability, a task that it is not easy and could cost millions of American lives. Yeah. I would say he's been incredibly lucky. Dont you know that Clinton was unhappy that he never had an opportunity like 9/11 (or Katrina)to enshrine his destiny? Of course you were jesting?

33 posted on 09/17/2005 3:53:37 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: Sabramerican
Now I believe he may surpass Carter in the mess he will leave.

Clearly you werent out of your diapers when Carter was President.

34 posted on 09/17/2005 3:57:44 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: Soul Seeker
Clinton had natural disasters on his watch. We were attacked by terrorists on his watch. Was Clinton simply "unlucky" fortunes conspired against his control for a legacy?
35 posted on 09/17/2005 4:03:02 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: Soul Seeker
Clinton had natural disasters on his watch. We were attacked by terrorists on his watch. Was Clinton simply "unlucky" fortunes conspired against his control for a legacy?

Clinton had a handful of people die in the US and hundreds of Africans die a continent away. Not hardly what galvanizes the US to war. Clinton's biggest terrorist attack was by an American, McVeigh. Yeah CLinton had his hurricanes but they were run of the mill and if he tried any social engineering the Evil Republicans would have prevented it.

36 posted on 09/17/2005 4:03:13 PM PDT by Dave S
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To: RWR8189

I like Fred. It's too bad his mind gets polluted from his connection to the weak-ly standard.


37 posted on 09/17/2005 4:40:20 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (The quisling ratmedia: always eager to remind us of why we hate them.)
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To: evad

I, too, disagree with the premise that his luck ran out.

In my view, there are a lot of decisions, small and large, that brought us to this point.

It takes a lot of chutzpah to ignore a cat 5 hurricane barreling down on you.....whether the little guy or the fat cat. That kind of chutzpah does not rate a commendation in my book.


38 posted on 09/17/2005 5:41:35 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It!)
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To: All

For the record, Fred Barnes is a GOOD GUY.

He does NOT deserve intense ire from anyone here. He fell victim to a little Beltway think, fine, but he is NOT one of them. He proved that during the Hurricane coverage when many people jumped ship. He could have joined them, he did NOT.

I am MORE than willing to go after people that are useless conservative hanger ons that only care about their reputations in D.C., but I'm going to stand in defense of Fred Barnes here.


39 posted on 09/17/2005 5:46:17 PM PDT by Soul Seeker (Barbour/Honore in '08)
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To: evad

I, too, disagree with the premise that his luck ran out.

In my view, there are a lot of decisions, small and large, that brought us to this point.

It takes a lot of chutzpah to ignore a cat 5 hurricane barreling down on you.....whether the little guy or the fat cat. That kind of chutzpah does not rate a commendation in my book.


40 posted on 09/17/2005 5:53:23 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It!)
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