Posted on 09/14/2005 10:05:59 AM PDT by GermanBusiness
The American left is going to be squealing like a pig...or more likely ignoring the situation as the Germans elect a pro-Bush government, possibly by a landslide in Sunday's national elections.
Today's poll results have the CDU at 42% against the SPD's 32% with the conservative FDP at 7% and the leftist Greens at 7% and the Communists at 8%. Remember, just like in an American state, it is a winner take all event at least for the direct vote for a specific parliament candidate in each district. With a ten point advantage overall, the CDU could theoretically win every directly elected seat in parliament.
The Communists are having a temper tantrum like the Naderites in 2000. They want to sacrifice this election in order to destroy the center-left Schroeder and Joschke Fischer who only talked about being anti-American but still have German troops in Afghanistan and allow the USA to use Germany as an airport, hospital station and depot for the war in the middle east.
All districts in Germany do not vote uniformly. There are "Blue States" and "Red States" in Germany...but it goes down to the Congressional District level. Just like we looked for the magic number 271 for Bush's Electoral College, the magic number in Germany will be 300 seats in a 600 seat parliament. There are also two votes in Germany: one for the person actually running in that district and one for a political party. Half of parliament is directly elected and the other half is appointed in proportion to the percentage of votes a given party received in the election as long as the party received at least 5% of the vote.
Because many districts are homogenous, the CDU/FDP Conservative Bloc may not get a landslide victory but, rather, win with a small majority similar to the poll results (the polls actually have them at 49% but the left has less).
But, since the CDU is at 42% opposed to the 32% SPD...we could see a landslide with traditional left wing neighborhoods splitting so heavily between the commies and the liberals and greens... that a CDU with even 30% support in such districts could win.
Keep in mind also: the SPD and Greens regard the Communists as hated enemies who threaten their existence in the same way that Nader threatened the Democrats. A parliament with a 4% contingent of indirectly elected communists will mean that the regular liberals will be wedged between enemies and powerless.
The only danger is that the SPD/Greens/Communists end up with their current 48% winning the day combined against a low turnout for conservative voters or super Kerry style turnout for liberals. Then Schroeder could remain Chancellor if he actually allied with the commies...which is entirely possible!
There are conservative ads in Germany warning against this Red-Red-Green Coalition which would be a nightmare for us all. Germany would have to veer way off to the left and pull troops out of Afghanistan at the least.
Fortunately...I totally doubt this will happen because of the winner take all effect of the directly elected half of parliament as compared to the proportional seat alottment of the other half of parliament. I see a conservative earthquake.
Spiegel, like CNN, has updated to lead with the Baghdad attacks instead of the poll results. Spiegel is leftist publication, so they probably did not want to leave such "depressing" poll results as the lead for long.
It is like NO news source is talking about the burning of all the synagogues today in Gaza.
But, like the burning of the synagogues in Gaza...what is happening in Germany now is historical. The German people are saying that they actually are on our side...in as much as only 51% of Americans are on our side as it is.
Of course, Merkel's wording is brilliant (talk about our differences in private instead of announcing them to the Muslims). That phraseology wins Merkel about 10% of Germans who wouldn't want to admit to being pro-Bush even to themselves.
About Schroeder's "surge in the polls"...today's poll results show that the surge is over. He lost the final debate a few days ago and, therewith, 1% in the polls.
Spiegel's cover this week is called "the end of the red-green coalition" with a red sun setting in a green ocean.
That is a very hefty admission for a left wing magazine to make. I am sure Spiegel editors are thinking that this is just strong medicine that will cause the SPD to get more left wing for the next election period.
Doesn't Oskar Lafontaine have his own party? Are you counting them among the communists or SDP?
They're probably just tired of being unemployed!
One of my kids lives in Germany -- last week she was taking about the high unemployment over there and some of the destructive incentive patterns. I got the feeling she thinks Germany's ready for a change.
and over-taxed.
I am counting Oskar as the Communist. Officially, they call themselves the Linkspartei. His partner is the last dictator of East Germany: Gysi. I am not kidding! The dictator of East Germany is running for office and 8% of the population is voting for him to be Chancellor of all of Germany! The far left has left the launch pad heading for outer space.
I look at the "Loose lips sink ships" moniker here on FR and I have to wonder if I should be talking about this subject when a German leftist could seize on it to talk some sense into the idiots who are about to throw away their votes to the Linkspartei.
About Angie: She is extraordinarily eloquent especially when she talks about how wonderful Americans are and how much America has done for Germany. I have heard her in person unapologetically praising Americans in a loud speech at the Marienplatz in Munich and it brought tears to my eyes. But then again, even Joschke Fischer includes a pro-American line or two in his speeches when he mentions getting candy from a US soldier when he was a child (there is a strong pro-American current even among anti-Americans because they have a love-hate relationship with us like the Canadians do). She also eloquently talks about how leftist economic policy is a disaster and how high taxes are bad.
Well back then they loved a different (but still) version of socialism.
But I wonder: Is Germany one train-bombing away from caving to the terrorists, like Spain was?
We had to suffer through Carter before we got to Reagan.
Here's what 'Center-Left' means in Germany:
(Photo: Helmeted young radical Joschka Fischer beating a policeman in Frankfurt during the 'German Student Union' street battles of 1968)
To be acknowledged as truly left-wing in Germany, it's apparently not enough that Joschka Fischer organized a violent nationwide Marxist student revolt, worked in the 'Karl Marx Bookstore' in Frankfurt, got an assembly job at Opel for the express purpose of starting a union designed to seize control of the company, travelled abroad to lend support for the PLO in 1969, and is now trying to mediate a resolution between the Greens and Communists to retain control of the country he's been the second-longest serving Foreign Minister of.
Nowadays, the left throws paint balloons at him signifying blood on his hands for allowing German troops to be sent to Afghanistan while Al-Jazeerah's editorials call him a Jew-loving Zionist.
What's a committed communist gotta do to get some credit over there?
It is true that we should not expect too much from a Merkel government in that she will be on a short tether. A ton of anti-Bush Germans are voting for her to preserve their own economic interests...which cuts her mandate. An above article sites that 56% of Germans want their 2200 troops pulled out of Afghanistan. But I don't think a train bombing would make them go more to the left. A train bombing in Germany would give the USA a mandate for more war and the Germans would not loudly oppose that unless they were asked to fight themselves.
That right swing is happening all over...it's starting to swing even in the commie infested left loon land of Hollyweirdo.
Yes, sometimes bad judgment begets good judgment...
Ah...so the Porsche boycott will soon be over?
A spain like bombing by Muslims would wake Germany up in the worst way and it would react by going MUCH further right then anyone here can imagine.
Do you think that given the resistance that Schroeder has had to his own modest reform package, that the trade unions and the unemployed will allow a conservative government to enact their own without major social unrest? I ask because as we have seen in the U.S., one major component of protest isn't against policy at all but against the fact that they lost the last election. This form of protest is entirely unamenable to compromise and deliberately subversive to the sitting administration. Would you expect this in Germany as well?
Marx's "enthusiasm" for Lincoln was strictly because according to his theory a nation had to go through a bourgeoise revolution as a stage to the proletarian one. Hence defeat of the feudal South was necessary for the complete victory of the Bourgeoise which would then become the Number 1 enemy.
And across the globe only the most anti-modern and reactionary supported the South.
"Anyone in tune with the German elections care to put in their observations?"
Yeah I do.
I've been following the election since it was announced in in May. The most recent three polls show Merkel with either a 1% point lead, a .1% lead or an exact tie.
Before the Sept 4th debate, the CDU-FDP had held a narrow but steady lead for over 2 weeks. But Schroder had a good debate performance and his SPD briefly took the lead. But the 3 most recent polls show that the debate effect is wearing off (Just like it does in the US after the Presidential debates).
Schroder will continue to lose support as the effect of the debate wears off and The CDU/CSU-FDP wins over Linke-SPD-Grune by at least 1.5% points on election day.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
