Posted on 09/10/2005 2:31:49 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ophelia continues to churn off the off the coast of the Carolinas with a track that has confounded computer models and meteorologists for days. Hurricane watches are issued for much of the SC and NC coastline. Northern GA and southern VA coastal areas are currently within the three day cone of uncertainty. Check local NWS service for updates.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE U.S.
Myrtle Beach NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Wilmington NC NWS Local Hurricane Statements
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater WV Still Image
Morehead City Long Range Radar Loop
Wilmington NC Long Range Radar Loop
Charleston SC Long Range Radar Loop
Wakefield VA Radar
Morehead City Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic
Additional Resources:
Myrtle Beach Online
WECT-6 Wilmington News
WVEC-13 Hampton Roads/Norfolk
Hurricane City
Myrtle Beach Web Reports Surf & traffic cams
Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Thanks - we just got word that although the pier was destroyed and we have major sound-side erosion, the water did NOT quite get to the house. Another six inches of depth it would have - too close for comfort but we are thankful!
The Crab Shack is my favorite - hope they get it back open soon. They've had their troubles - I think they were closed quite some time last year due to a fire. And now this...
Thank goodness.
My heart and soul go out to all who have losses, but when I encounter someone who has taken a loss, but can still be thankful it was not worse, I can only be joyful.
3.) Atlantic systems should now be raising eyebrows. A non-deep tropical system northeast of Puerto Rico comes westward for the gulf. A deep tropical system should be near or northeast of Puerto Rico by the middle of next week. A large area of the system suggests this will be a major hurricane. Models are still trying a 60- to 70-degree re-curve. I feel this could be a system that hits the East Coast or the Maritimes. - Joe Bastardi's Tropical Outlook, http://www.accuweather.com
I would like to sing the praises of a power crew from Georgia Power. They were busting their asses to get power back on for Atlantic Beach. Unfortunately, outside the military, police and FDs, it is rare to see some people who are professional, diligent, and risking their lives, for not only people they don't know, but doing it two states removed from their hometowns. Restores faith in this country. (of course, you are talking about fellow Southerners, so I shouldn't be too surprised ;)
I know exactly what you are saying. Following Isabel, Conectiv Power (now back to being called DelMarVA power) was attacked by people in northern Delaware for slow response.......but the only complaints were in northern Delaware - there were folks in central and southern DE, and on the Eastern Shore of MD that were without power (same company) for far longer. Even businesses here on the VA Eastern Shore didn't scream about it.
I wrote an article about the different reactions between urban and non-urban residents to power outages.........the paper I wrote it for never printed it.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
I can see my house on that picture...........
With that said - if all the models come through, I'll get a bit of much needed rain and nothing else but a bit of a breeze.
You folks in NC have all my thoughts and prayers.
I have to say goodnight folks - hubby is working tonight so I am in charge of child in the morning - the 7:15 school bus arrival is going to be interesting, considering it takes me nearly 15 minutes to get to the end of the driveway, let alone across the road.
Ophelia likes hanging around, huh?
Once Ophelia gets going, New England residents should look out just in case some of the models pan out.
(sorry, no noncap source located)
WTUS81 KBOX 160937 CCA
HLSBOX
MAZ019-020>024-RIZ005-007-ANZ231>236-254-255-161600-
HURRICANE OPHELIA LOCAL STATEMENT .. COR DATE..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
533 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE OUTLOOKED SUCH THAT IT MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
NANTUCKET...DUKES...BARNSTABLE AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEAST COASTAL RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES OF NEWPORT AND BRISTOL.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
AT 5 AM...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND AND INCLUDES THE ENTIRE COASTAL REGION FROM POINT JUDITH
RHODE ISLAND TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...WITH SPECIAL FOCUS ON CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
OPHELIA IS STILL EXPECTED PASS AROUND 50 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH
MAY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY.
IF OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS AND PATH CONTINUE ON COURSE AS CURRENTLY
PROJECTED...A PORTION OF THIS WATCH...WOULD LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DURING TODAYS MIDDAY ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIAS WIND FIELDS TO
WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF ITS PATH. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE LIKELY SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELDS ON THE NEW
ENGLAND SIDE OF THIS STORM...THE WATCH CONTINUES.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
NORTH CAROLINA. OPHELIA WAS NOW MOVING NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. SHE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED.
..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PEOPLE LIVING ON OR WITH PROPERTY ON CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD OR
NANTUCKET SHOULD PREPARE FOR A STORM THAT MAY BE COMPARABLE TO A
POWERFUL NOREASTER.
BOAT OWNERS SHOULD COORDINATE WITH MARINA OPERATORS AND TAKE
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS...UNLESS ARRANGEMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO PULL THEIR BOATS OUT OF THE WATER. REMOVE ANY
NON-ESSENTIAL ITEMS AND HAVE PICTURES AND A WRITTEN DESCRIPTION OF
THE VESSEL FOR INSURANCE PURPOSES. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT PASSES.
COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE IN ANY OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT
LIE CLOSE TO THE WATER OR CAN BE BLOWN ABOUT. SOME COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AS THE STORM PASSES SATURDAY MORNING.
EVERYONE MUST REMAIN CLEAR OF BEACHES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING FRIDAY. HIGH SURF FROM THESE SWELLS CAN CREATE DEADLY RIP
CURRENTS WHICH POSE A DANGER TO EVEN THE MOST SKILLED SWIMMER.
...WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS NANTUCKET...MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND CAPE COD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO
50 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPE
AND ISLANDS WITH THIS STORM. JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS REACH
DEPENDS UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF OPHELIA. SUCH WINDS WOULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...AND WELL AS
BLOW ABOUT UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS. FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG
BUZZARDS BAY AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST RHODE ISLAND THERE IS SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS.
...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
THE STORM SURGE WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL STORM. EARLY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A 1 TO 3 FOOT STORM
SURGE MAY OCCUR ON TOP OF THE EXPECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE DURING
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINES...IF THE
STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE SATURDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE.
...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY FALL
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS
AND RHODE ISLAND. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR. IN ADDITION
THE HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW SMALL STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR
BANKS...AND FLOOD WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE ISSUED.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED NEXT AROUND 11 AM EDT TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS IS CONTAINED IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
/BOSSPSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED DURING THIS STORM THREAT.
$$
DRAG
Ask CD about the cheerleader pics... ;-)
Now that she has gone away from us, I have to smile as I remember my tenth-grade English teacher (42 years ago) who was named Ophelia and was almost as much fun as the storm... :-)
Thanks.
Thanks for the good wishes - there has not been a drop of rain here today. However the fishing fleet out of Chincoteague went absolutely nowhere today....we were over on CI for a couple of hours this afternoon and the bridge NEVER openned.
I can understand your rememberance of the teacher - I harrassed hubby about Charlie and Fran (his parents names) and I bless NN for NOT doing that to me in 2001 during Gabrielle.
On that note - I'm out of here....good night everyone.
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