Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Ophelia is churning off the Florida Atlantic coast.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track Graphics, Satellite
Ophelia Track Forecast Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Melbourne FL Long Range Radar Loop
Melbourne Experimental Radar may experience delays or outages
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Ophelia Wind Field Graphic

Additional Resources:

Central Florida Hurricane Center
News4Jax.com
Hurricane City
Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Amelia]

That's an interesting discussion. I've never paid accuweather a whole lot of attention before, and unless they end up being prescient on this one, I don't anticipate paying much attention in the future!

[AnAmericanMother]

Howdy, Amelia!

My parents are looking out to sea, too.

Hope this one wanders harmless off into the middle Atlantic . . . it's clear that the weatherdudes aren't real clear on what it's going to do . . .

[Dog Gone]

The problem is that while Ophelia is making up her mind, she's sitting over the Gulf Stream. The question is whether shear or dry air can keep her from growing in the meantime.

This could be a situation where she brushes the coast of Georgia before spinning around and hitting Florida and even re-emerging in the Gulf.

This is a particularly tricky storm to forecast without the obvious steering mechanisms coming into play anytime soon.

[NautiNurse]

I mentioned upthread Ophelia is like a couch potato, just sittin' and feedin' these days. She has a constant diet of warm Gulf Stream waters for now.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

What that tells me is the weather is more weirdly chaotic than the models are able to deal with.

If I had to pic one, I have been told the Euro (which is not one of the models you have charted is often most accurate...but I think all the guys are uncertain right now.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

She sure is on a hurricane's favorite food! I feel sorry for the local beaches.

Found another neat Hurricane site.

WxRisk's Hurricane Page is dedicated to providing as insight into the Extended Range (ER) and Medium Range (MR) coverage of Developed Tropical systems. It is in no way designed or intended to replace official TPC watches warnings etc.

http://wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes1.htm

His current speculation/forecast

Since early Thursday morning.... Ophelia has been increasing significantly in terms of its overall structure its size its confection the outflow... and the reports all day have been for a slow drop in MSLP and a slow increase in winds. To my private clients I made a statement that I suspect Ophelia would be a hurricane by this evening or early on Friday morning... but I wasn't really thinking that it would reach hurricane status by 5 p.m. today.

Clearly it has as the satellite pictures as well as the radar is fairly impressive when you consider where the system was early this morning. The 12z GFS showed a Mjaor change from what it was showing early this morning and yesterday-- the midday Thursday operational GFS is now showing Ophelia making a very tight loop and NOT being kicked out to sea by early next week. The Model's loop pattern to clearly be seen ... and it is No surprise that the 18z hurricane models are copying the 12z op GFS in showing a similar development with the consensus forecasts of a very tight anti cyclonic loop developing over the weekend.

However once we get past Day 7 the operational GFS model becomes absolutely useless with regard to forecasting hurricane tracks... and especially along the East Coast. For example be midday Thursday operational GFS has Ophelia still over the eastern North Carolina coastal areas thru Day 10!!!

Again we are faced with the real question of WHAT WHEN and HOW LONG is this anticyclonic loop going to last? And by that I'm talking about how "tight " the loop is going to ... often times when we see a anti-cyclonic loop in tropical systems there is a prolonged Southwest trajectory which enables the system to drop us across lower latitudes.

In other words if Ophelia starts to make its anti- cyclonic loop at around 30 North and 80 West -for example -she may end up tracking West and Southwest for a prolonged period of time...placing her into central or sothern Florida before she finally comes out of the loop trajectory.... this can once again place a threat to the Gulf of Mexico region. This is what the 18z Hurricane models are telling us and we should be listening since it suport my argument of the last couple od days ... that Ophelia is NOT going to get keicked oiut ro sea... and going to stall and may yet still be a threat to FL and the gulf and is NOT a threat to NC... and may be more of a threat to GA than SC...

[NonValueAdded]

Guenevere ... keep the car's tank full, start eating down the frozen food and replace what you eat with ice so the freezer stays full. Check your hurricane kit and get in some practice at the range. Stand by to repel boarders.

[Amelia]

I think David is the only one that has hit the Georgia coast since 1898....but I'm still making sure that my supplies are up to date!

[AnAmericanMother]

Guess we're overdue, then . . .

I've read Buddy Sullivan's edition of John Girardeau Legare's diary . . . he covers the 1898 storm in detail. My folks have friends who live up on the bluff, which is certainly safer than even an interior tidal island!

[Amelia]

I've read accounts of the 1898 storm from Buddy Sullivan's Early Days on the Georgia Tidewater. (Good book if you haven't read it yet.) Scary stuff.

We're up on a high bluff, so I wouldn't worry so much about flooding, but after listening to the wind all last fall when the remnants came by us, I'm not sure if I want to sit through a real storm or not....although I was here for David, and except for the immediate coast I don't recall a lot of damage. I think the island areas in Savannah were out of power for several days.

[NautiNurse]

You are getting excellent advice already. Times like this, I keep the water and other heavier items stacked neatly by the door. They remind me to check the updates frequently.

You might as well get a good portion of your bottled water needs together now because of the flooding potential from the stalled storm. I use empty kitty litter pails for the non-potable needs.

Make sure your flashlights are within easy reach in the event of power outage, keep cell phones charged. If you haven't taken photos of your property inside and out in the past year, do that now. Even better if you have a camcorder, do a walkthrough with narrative description.

Great advice to spin down the freezer contents over the next few days. I fill up empty plastic drink bottles with water (leaving room to expand) and freeze them. They serve as long lasting ice blocks.

Oh...and do laundry...

[tiredoflaundry]

bump!

[nuclady]

I read that too. Problem is, if they try to go around it and Ophelia decides to start turning east (good for us), then they will run right into it (bad for them). They've got 1000 people in that convoy.

[bwteim]

"If you haven't taken photos of your property inside and out in the past year, do that now. Even better if you have a camcorder, do a walkthrough with narrative description."

And send the photos/vcr out of state.

[NautiNurse]

Interesting site with some nice historic data. Thanks.

[Guenevere]

Done, done and done!

We keep our water updated & stored in the closet....large quantities.

We've done the video/digital picture thingie....for insurance purposes.

We have the canned goods....flashlights, batteries...and gastanks topped....

..I haven't finished washing all the clothes :^ ...

..and I need to buy the chocloate for the hurricane shut-in time...sigh

But I hope I don't have to use any of this stuff....

I haven't even had a vacation ...(and I really needed one this year).....

..I'm not ready for the headache of a hurricane!

[NautiNurse]

As yes. Last year sent copies of insurance info, bank info, etc. out of state. Excellent reminder.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

The guys on the Eastern Weather site thinks the guy who did that site is a particular forecasting superguru...so it might be worth noting that even he can't/won't make a definite call yet.

[ExSoldier]

RE Your tagline. Hey! I love Johnny Quest and Hadji. Especially the original series, which I watched every Thursday night at 7pm. Where else was it encouraged for 10 yr old kids to use assault rifles on 15 foot crocs? And those KEWL jetpacks.....

[Guenevere]

#136 is for you too!!!! : )