Posted on 09/05/2005 8:19:17 PM PDT by FinallyBackInNH
WTNT35 KNHC 060259 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005
...14TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS... ...LOCATED SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...28.0 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER KNABB
It's a threat to precisely nobody other than Bermuda.
I hate hurricanes.
It's weird that the last three or so hurricanes have formed so far north and are following basically the same path out to sea. Usually it's more random than that. I thought I read that we haven't even hit the peak of hurricane season yet. It goes to Nov. 30. Sorry to be so gloom and doom.
Yeah, let's hope. The 11:00 discussion gives a real warm fuzzy:
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE...
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK DOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.
Probably not much there in any case...unless you're on the Outer Banks anyway.
Time to evacuate Long Island??
I lived through 2 storms in LI, both were minor as far as hurricanes go (belle and gloria). If a major storm were to hit (cat 4 or 5), I couldn't imagine what it would do to the place, and there would be nowhere to hide.
Fortunately, the ocean out in that area doesn't generally get warm enough to spur a major storm.
I was in the water down in Long Island Sound a week ago, and let me tell you it sure AIN'T the Gulf of Mexico. Probably 71 degrees where my little toes were -- nothing like the 91 degrees that Katrina came through in the Gulf.
What does the GDFL model say?
It put Katrina ashore close to where she hit while Katrina was still near Miami.
Ruh roh!
Oh no, not another one!
From the 11:00 discussion:
THE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS.
Oops...
Oh man, I feel ya. This is the first time in my adult life that I am considering just getting the hell out of the coastal regions. I told my hubby that it might be worth losing all of my stuff if I lived in Florida but having to start over again at 42 to live in MS is asking too much.
Oh goody. As if we didn't have enough rain this year.
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