New Orleans has, quite literally, been turned inside out, and America has had some of its most terrible national vulnerabilities exposed for the world to see. Our enemies are taking notes. We better be taking some notes, too.
It will be more difficult for people to ignore explicit hurricane warnings for at least a generation, so harping on the accuracy of the National Hurricane Center’s predictions of what would happen when this storm came ashore is pointless. Whether this renewed respect for the National Weather Service is transferable to the other agencies we pay to warn us remains to be seen.
The chattering classes have also had thrust upon them an unnerving look at America’s urban underclass, washed out from behind the curtain and shaken out on the living room floor. That’s the same New Orleans that was always there, by the way. It’s just been turned inside out. It’s not a pretty picture.
Among the working poor came the gangs and the addicts and all that they could carry through the floodwaters, and now they are angry, we are being told. They were angry before, of course, but now they are storm victims, with all the attendant trauma and dumbfounded astonishment that accompanies that unhappy state of mind and being.
A lot of people watching from a distance are angry for them, some with some sort of bizarre guilt and misdirected anger less for the victims, I would imagine, than for some sense that somebody, somewhere, has made a terrible mistake.
But this is not Chernobyl. A lot of people made a choice to be, or just happened to be, in the wrong place at the wrong time and lightning struck. There is plenty of the uniquely human kind of outrageous stupidity to go around, but FEMA isn't the problem.
Unless, of course, governments tend to foster dependence. Afterall, FEMA's original primary mission is COG, or "Continuity of Government," not search and rescue.
In Mississippi and Alabama, where the largest storm surge ever recorded has swept away whole communities and families, there is anger too. Anyone who has ever sat upon the ground in the stillness of the ruins after these storms understands how it feels to have the startlingly thin veneer of modern civilization ripped away. Patience does eventually transform to discomfort and then to fear, which manifests itself as anger as first the hours, then the days and then the weeks pass by and the illusion of self-sufficiency brings both humility and humiliation.
All the anger is useless, of course, but reason gives way at times like these. It’s important, however, all the more to rely on reason. Especially by all of us who are trying to help. It is reasonable, for example, to understand that nature is not your mother and government is not your father.
The 1900 Galveston Hurricane began the transformation of the National Weather Bureau from a meteorological survey into something that gives people warning of the impending arrival of killer storms. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 demonstrated the value of building codes and satellites, but it also showed the powerlessness of government to come to the aid of the storm’s victims in a timely fashion.
We’re going to learn a lot from Katrina. Not all of it will be welcome. None of it will be pretty.
If this is a preview of how America’s governments are prepared to react in the aftermath of a nuclear attack on a single city, for example, in a scenario more likely than a wholesale nuclear war these days, then this dress rehearsal is not very encouraging. Some of those problems, now exposed for our enemies to see, may be beyond fixing until long after it’s too late.
Andrew taught the federal government to preposition relief supplies and reduce response and rescue time by many days, but that’s not going to be good enough for some people.
For others, it begs the question of what would be good enough?
It demonstrates the stark reality that people, families, and communities need to prepare to take care of themselves for some reasonable period of time before disaster strikes. And I don’t mean by buying flood insurance.
Katrina is going to teach us a lot about New Orleans, and New Orleans will show us how quickly local governments, and then state governments, can simply collapse. In comparison to the magnitude of a such a vast and powerful storm, governments are simply frauds, and always were, and the indulgence of their constituents alone keeps them afloat.
This disaster has exposed a People who are too dependent on government and who become helpless when government staggers. It has exposed one of many of America’s Great Cities who have among their people some who will immediately turn on authorities when the support they voted to support fails, even momentarily.
For Americans to rely upon one another, we must also be able to rely on ourselves. As anyone who takes on the responsibility of being a part of a family knows, you can’t help others when you can’t help yourself.
Your post deserves its own thread.
Great post.
bttt
Great post.........BUMP
Bravo!!! Post of the DAY!!!
Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%.
This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.
I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.
My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.
Jeff Masters (The day before Katrina hit.)
Earlier on Saturday he posted this comment:
I'd hate to be an Emergency Management official in New Orleans right now. Katrina is pretty much following the NHC forecast, and appears likely to pass VERY close to New Orleans. I'm surprised they haven't ordered an evacuation of the city yet. While the odds of a catastropic hit that would completely flood the city of New Orleans are probably 10%, that is way too high in my opinion to justify leaving the people in the city. If I lived in the city, I would evactuate NOW! There is a very good reason that the Coroner's office in New Orleans keeps 10,000 body bags on hand. The risks are too great from this storm, and a weekend away from the city would be nice anyway, right? GO! New Orleans needs a full 72 hours to evacuate, and landfall is already less than 72 hours away. Get out now and beat the rush. You're not going to have to go to work or school on Monday anyway. If an evacuation is ordered, not everyone who wants to get out may be able to do so--particularly the 60,000 poor people with no cars.