Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 28 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico and New Orleans metro area. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin conceded that as many as 100,000 inner-city residents didn't have the means to leave and an untold number of tourists were stranded by the closing of the airport. At this hour, people are still filing into the Superdome after security screening for weapons and contraband. National Guard have brought in 360,000 MRE (meals ready to eat) to feed the estimated 30,000 storm refugees in the Superdome.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[FreedomPoster]

Bingo!

I said Saturday AM, that I'd be headed for Dallas.

[silentknight]

Large new radar image...zoomed in on eye - tornado watch in red

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showthread.php?s=&postid=452599#post452599

[NautiNurse]

Nighters--you know where we will be. Thanks for the kind words. That, and a cup of coffee--I may make it until dawn.

[jeffers]

"I wonder if this hurricane might cut an inlet across Plaquemines Parish and create a new island out of the
southern tip."

I'd say that the odds of breaches are pretty high, but that area ranges from 13 feet ASL to 17 feet and accounts for half to three quarters of the eyewall area at any given time. That's a lot of sand, which won't just vaporize; it has to end up somewhere, so I'd hesitate to make any specific predictions.

A guess at gunpoint?

Perhaps it will tend to fetch up on the taller sandbars due east of downtown, which range up to 18-20' ASL.

It's just no telling.

Until Tuesday morning at the earliest, we have little choice but to try and piece together fragmentary spot reports, and given how often early reports are wrong, we'll still be guessing right up until the first overflights are completed, which I don't expect before midday Tuesday.

[Hank Rearden]

Luv yer tagline.

[jeffers]

"Do you know how much larger than Camile this 'cane is?"

No. I've read accounts of Camille but don't have any figures at hand. If I open any more windows right now there's a good chance I'll bring down the LAN.

;-)

[NautiNurse]

This storm has a nasty habit of taking out all the buoys in her path.

[USAF0021]

http://www.wxresearch.org/family/camiwind.gif

At the above link you can see the wind field distribution around Camille. It appears it had tropical storm force winds out to 90 miles and hurricane force winds out to only about 40 miles, so a very compact storm compared to this current one.

[jeffers]

"As far as the land masses...all that stuff on the map below New Orleans isn't really land--it's swamp."

Yup.

[NautiNurse]

Nighters--see you later.

[Pirogue Captain]

"As it unfortunately still does. How on earth do you start to separate corruption from Louisiana politics? My guess is when enough people wake up and vote all crooks out of office. A "good guy" here or there is only scratching the surface."


I guess I should talking about New Orleans in the past tense. In New Orleans you still have the NAACP types and other rabble rousers (local preachers) who are more interested in protecting one of their own, than accountability and problem solving.

[stlnative]

Here is 2 diagrams off of FOX... the left diagram shows before (red areas are the lowest areas) and the right diagram shows after the water breeches the levees.
http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y84/patchworkpiecer/NOflooding.jpg

[silentknight]

Tornado risk going up significantly as this thing comes ashore. NUMEROUS storms just offshore have shown rotation.

[Ellesu]

In Baton Rouge, just woke up, can someone give me a quick update on Katrina please?

[NautiNurse]

while listening to streaming, have FNC muted on the tv. The FNC sat loop keeps giving me waves of nausea as it approached the shorline.

[spunkets]

"60 miles wide"

Well w/o going into too much... I don't have enough info. Anyway 3X bigger looks reasonable.

[newzjunkey]

Amazing. I wonder, if NO is destroyed, will it be worthwhile rebuilding in that location? Seems like a nightmare waiting for the right disaster to strike.

[NautiNurse]

Hey! Great to see you - windspeed 155 mph, she's about 75 miles from the coast.

[DB]

The loop is way too fast. Really annoying if you ask me... (I know, no one did...)