Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part V

NHC - NOAA ^ | 28 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Extremely dangerous Hurricane Katrina is bearing down on the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Mandatory evacuation of New Orleans is finally underway. Louisiana officials are warning of complete failure to levy systems, and pleading with people to leave low lying areas. For those who choose to stay, they are recommending picks and axes for breaking through to access their roofs during flooding.

Due to the size and intensity of this storm, all interests in the North Gulf of Mexico should be rushing hurricane preparations to completion.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

http://www.wjbo.com - BR radio station. Callers calling in and describing traffic etc.
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518

Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Torie]

Here.

[Michael Goldsberry]

"All I know is if I were in Galveston, I'd be all gassed up ready to go."

I'm in Galveston and I'm all gassed up ready to go.

[GRRRRR]

Latest data graph from Mid-Gulf Bouy 42001, 180miles south of Southwest pass LA.

[spycatcher]

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html

"...It's especially unnerving to hear him talk about disaster. He's trying to figure out, for instance, how will emergency workers start working in a city that's drowned in an 80-mile lake? New Orleans has protected itself from past floods partly with the levees, but the city also operates one of the biggest pumping systems on earth. There are giant turbines all across town, and every time there's a major rain, they suck up the water and pump it out. Combes says that system won't work after a huge hurricane.

"The problem," says Combe, "is that the city's been underwater. And the whole city has to be drained by the pumps, and since the pumps have been under the water, the pumps are flooded. They don't operate now— we have to get the pumps back in operation and in order to get the pumps back in order, we have to get the water out of the city."

Sounds like a Catch 22.

"That's correct."
Terrible Devastation

Researcher Jay Combe has reached a troubling conclusion. He's told his supervisors at the Army Corps of Engineers that if The Hurricane hits New Orleans, most of the buildings in the city would probably be destroyed. If the water didn't demolish them, the hurricane's horrific winds would. And Combe says that raises a question: How many people would die?

Some researchers say 40,000. Some say 20,000. This Army Corps researcher says those figures are probably too low.

Combe worries, "I think of a terrible disaster. I think of 100,000."

...Some scientists believe that if a huge storm hits New Orleans, the city would have to be abandoned. Bulldoze the rubble, rebuild someplace else."

[Dog Gone]

An ERC is an Eyewall Replacement Cycle, an interesting transformation in significant hurricanes where the center sort of collapses and then rebuilds. It generally rebuilds stronger than prior to the ERC.

But during the ERC, winds diminish and the overall intensity does drop, at least temporarily.

There's been some hope today that Katrina would be undergoing and ERC before striking New Orleans. That hope appears to be a slim one at this time because the hurricane has achieved that supercyclone status which is characterized by the stadium effect eye.

This is truly the doomsday scenario for New Orleans. You can't make it worse unless you throw a meteor strike in the middle of it.

And I'm not really attempting humor there. I have little to no hope that the city will be habitable for the rest of this year.

[winodog]

This one has been working but theres not much to see.
http://www.tropicalisle.com/webcam.html

[pax_et_bonum]

The eye wall is 20 miles wide.

The eye wall is 20 miles wide?

[conservative cat]

Not me...I like the feeling of being warned and getting out of Dodge.

I've lived in earthquake land and tornado land (luckily not hurricane land.) I agree the warning is helpful. Earthquakes are scary as can be (and you don't know how big and damaging they are until they are done!) but tornadoes are pretty rotten, too. You have nothing to do but hide in an inner hallway if you don't have a basement and hope the walls hold up if it hits. For my personal safety, I'd take the hurricane (and the warning) but for my property, I'd chance the earthquake.

[abb]

All these people in their cars. Not good at all. Time's almost up.

[oceanview]

how far west of NO is Galveston?

[SauronOfMordor]

he better get a few Daquiris to go, he'll need them when he's looking around the superdome for a functioning bathroom with 100,000 other people.

It's going to be loads of fun as the rising water levels cause the sewer lines to run backwards

[Dog]

The eye wall is how small?

[Tarpon]

I put that link up before as I keep it as a reminder. We had a house in Biloxi that survived Camille. Most of the catastrophic damage was in the strip that was on the gulf side of the huge sand dune that runs down the peninsula, the gulf on one side, Biloxi bay on the other. A train track topped the dune and made it into quite the dike and wind break. On the inland side, there was little damage. Like Andrew, the damage had no rhyme or reason, it just happened.

One curiosity is the old civil war Jeff Davis mansions were not too damaged. They were built up against the berm.

[Law is not justice but process]

"within the alley where Lake Pontchartrain becomes a Bay of Fundy, and rises like a bathtub filling."

Good point. I suspect, from a storm surge standpoint, that 30 miles east IS the worst case scenario. First the east wind blows up the Pontchartrain channel and fills the lake, then the storm passes and the north wind blows the overfilled Lake Pontchartrain over the levee and into NO. The winds may not be as bad, but the surge will be worse.

[Howlin]

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=New+Orleans,+LA&ll=31.175210,-90.098877&spn=4.589047,7.483337&hl=en

[LenS]

I'd assume that authorities will close the bridge down at some point just to avoid that type of disaster.

[Peanut Gallery]

you can get a better grasp of the big picture of the Fort Worth F2 from this link

http://www.dallassky.com/Specia2.jpg

[texpat72]

Thanks!

[Lijahsbubbe]

He won't, he is staying

Did he say he was staying?

[debg]

There's something like 4000 electrical crews from the southeastern states still down here in South Florida helping to get the power back on. They'll just be finishing up down here and have to move up to the Gulf coast.