yes, what controls that? if it goes through an eyewall replacement cycle as it nears the shore, it will be weaker, but if it completes that cycle while out at sea, it hits at full strength. is that the calculation here?
I still don't see from the radar loops, alot of northern component to its movement - is there a chance it could come in further west, west of NO? of course, that would put NO in the northeastern quadrant of the eye wall.
A cat four is NOT worse than a cat 5. Whoever said that doesn't know what they are talking about.
That what I an waiting to see to. All models in good agreement, and NHC is excellent in thier forecasting, so I think I will not worry about this one.
The fact that is still hasn't turned north is bad for NO. The 0z tracks shifted enough to make the track over NO less severe as far as flooding goes. Winds, well... that's going to be a problem regardless it seems.
Eyewall replacements typically last ~18 hours, from beginning to end. Considering we are 36-48 hours out... it's possible that we will be in the middle of another as it comes ashore. I'm trying to look for reasons the storm wont be a catastrophe, and the only ones that come to mind are if it manages to find a relatively less populated area. I think 140-150 sustained at landfall is a good bet... ~155-165 possible if it comes in during another ERC.
What radar loop are you using ? All of the radar sites I go to have it too far out in the gulf to see now.