Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Tarheel]

Some how this guy does not inspire the kind of confidence needed in the face of a disaster. Someone must have the authority to order a mandatory evacuation--the Chief of Police, the City Manager.

This guy d/n come close to the courage of Rudy on 9/11 and the aftermath. No matter what you may think of Rudy G. you must admire what he did for NYC. As far as his personal life--yuk.

[Tuxedo]

It depends. There are a lot of variables here that are unknown - strength at landfall, eye landfall position (east or west of Lake Ponch, and forward speed of the hurricane when it makes landfall. A direct hit is not instantly an epic disaster unless the other variables align. Basically, a lot has to go "right" in order to create the doomsday scenarion. NO has a substantial homeless and impoverished population most of which are basically screwed if all the numbers come out "right". Further reaching impacts though are within the aftermath and what actually happens to the city. Some of those things are too terrible to begin to contemplate.

[fooman]

NO flood while the lawyers fiddle...

[Tom D.]

It appears that it may be time to head to Pat O'Brien's for his signature beverage.

As to the so called "mandatory" evacuations, if it is anything like what we have in eastern NC, they issue what are called mandatory evacuations, but the mandatory stuff is not enforceable in the usual sense of the word. What that usually means (here anyway) is that they tell you to get out, that if something bad happens to you (e.g. a tree falls on you, you suffer a heart attack, etc.) the authorities are not going to be in a position to provide any assistance to you and you are on your own. Additionally, in most mandatory evacuations, the authorities will not let you into the area if you are trying to get there. When stuff like this happens the authorities do not have the time to arrest you for refusing to do what they tell you to do because they are tied up with taking care of the other stuff that happens.

[LA Woman3]

I remember someone stating in the Ivan thread (last year)about mandatory evacuations. If the city officials call for them, they are financially libel for everyone that cannot afford to evacuate. Any Louisiana FReepers remember this??

[bannie]

The Superdome has 4 or 5 levels. Certainly the top three or four would be above the floodline (assuming the structure can hold up). Seating capacity is aroung 60,000 I believe, with room for thousands more on the outer concourses.

What a horrific image: People scrambling to higher ground--like ants.

[spycatcher]

Well if N.O. gets devastated by this, people may not move back in large numbers.

[spycatcher]

I heard the Superdome is actually 20 ft off the ground to start.

[Tuxedo]

Yes, it is at a higher ground than near the riverfront. Easily the safest place in town.

[sonsofliberty2000]

I'll build the ark, you gather the animals.

[Termite_Commander]

Sheesh! None of the cable networks are covering this. There are hundreds of thousands of people at risk, and all they can focus on is Cindy Sheehan!

[Palladin]

For Pete's sake! Is the mayor going to sit around all night wrangling with his LAWYERS over this decision? What a doofus!

Meantime, he has made flight arrangements for his own family.

[NautiNurse]

That's what happens around here between mandatory (funds appropriated) and voluntary (no money) evacs. However, during the mandatory evacs, they auto-dial every phone with a recorded message to get out, they go through some neighborhoods with bullhorns, and finally, they threaten that electricity will be turned off at a specific time.

[Palladin]

>>>There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.<<<

The animals are leaving already, just like they did before the Great Tsunami. Why can't the people be as sensible?

[bannie]

Why don't I just invite everyone over to the west coast?

Just damn.

[NautiNurse]

Just saw video--traffic moving very smoothly on I-10

[alancarp]

Scary graphic for NOrl from the Accuweather pro site. This is the GFDL model, which puts this at the city as a possible 4/5 storm around Noon CDT Monday, with actual landfall around 8am.

[bannie]

Weather Channel. Better'n nothin'.

[Flux Capacitor]

There must be something wrong with me. I keep thinking "oh YEAH. Only two more days and we'll be a solid red state." :)

Then I remember that this thing could just as easily veer towards me and end up making La. an even bluer state. Good luck, N.O.

-Dan

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I was reading the most recent Hurricane discussion, and Avila, who I have read for years in his discussions and bulletins, said this:

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE
AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.

That is a scary thought. It's been 40 years since Betsy, and almost as long since Camille...have people there forgotten what a really bad storm can do?