Live Thread - Hurricane Katrina, Part IV (Update: Now a Category 5 )

NOAA - NHC ^ | 27 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[kenth]

Radioactive hurricane... super.

[Law is not justice but process]

"Someone is pulling your leg. Hurricanes don't cause earthquakes."

It is possible for hurricanes to cause seismic tremors from wave action pounding on the beach. That may be the source of the "earth tremors" statement (a 20 or 30 foot wave breaking is a hell of a lot of energy being expended over a wide front). However, it is not absolutely beyond possibility that the weight of water moved inland by a storm surge could break loose a fault that is near the point of breaking anyway. Imagine 20 feet of water (the height of the surge north of Charleston in comparatively tame Cat 4 Hugo) spread up to 10 or 15 miles inland over about 50 to 100 miles of coast. I do not know of an instance where that has happened, but is is far from impossible.

That said, I would worry about the winds first. Wind force is proportionate to the fourth power of wind velocity, not linearly, squared or even cubed. That means 175 mph is vastly stronger than 135 we saw in Hugo or even the 155 that caused such utter destruction in Andrew as it hit South Florida. I would worry about storm surge second (unless I was within 10 miles of the beach - in which case I would not be debating this on FR but di-di-mauing on up to higher ground). Camile had a 25 to 30 foot storm surge in the same region in 1968. On both counts, even without earthquakes, this could be the worst storm ever in the US.

By the way, brace for $100 a barrel oil, as this storm will shut down Gulf oil production for at least a few weeks. I dare say the price of Gulf Coast oysters and shrimp will skyrocket as the great fishing fleets of Louisiana and Mississippi will be decimated.

My prayers for safety to all residents of the affected area.

[mware]

Don't you think the building itself would hold?

Nope i dont think so, I remember during the Mississippi River flood some years ago. Houses and building where swept away with the floods, Those buildings are going to hit into other buildings.

[bannie]

Thanks! I wondered.

[PhilipFreneau]

>>> "This storm is going to pass through the meat of the oil and gas fields. The whole country will feel it, because it's going to cripple us and the country's whole economy," said Capt. Buddy Cantrelle with Kevin Gros Offshore, which supplies rigs via a fleet of large crew vessels. <<<

What we need is an immediate Executive Order allowing and encouraging drilling in that frozen Alaskan wasteland called ANWAR. It is doubtful such an Order would be seriously challenged in the congress at this time.

[joey'smom]

When I lived in New Orleans, my boyfriend always called it "The City That Forgot to Care"...this storm scenario is awful. New Orleans is unique in so many wonderful ways -- not an easy city to live in, but so rich in history, architecture and, of course, food. The potential for destruction is overwhelming...I'm so sad.

[Gabz]

I am all for personal responsibility and limited governement interference, but one of the main purposes for government is PUBLIC SAFETY.......and they have failed that job here abyssmally.

People here at FR have been calling for the Evac of NO since THURSDAY for crying out loud.

I'm practically speechless about the incompetence of these people.

[Howlin]

The stadium effect is a rare phenomenon appearing in hurricanes in which the inward curvature of the cumulonimbi top forming the eyewall of the hurricane creates an open dome that ressembles a football stadium. Its presence infers a mature and very intense hurricane/typhoon. The strongest typhoon/hurricane ever seen on record was Typhoon Tip (1979) with an estimated minimum sea level pressure of 870 mb.


And he does so have the power to order an evacuation; or every mayor on the east coast has been breaking the "Law" for years.

[bwteim]

Shows you what I know. I am still celebrating VJ Day;)

[El Gran Salseron]

My family is spread out over the whole area and are more or less the type that will say, "We'll ride it out." Dummies!

[streetpreacher]

We just "officially" started homeschooling our 6-year-old son. Using Abekka for now.

[mewzilla]

Thanks. We'll keep them in our prayers, too :)

[Howlin]

What a simpleton.

[streetpreacher]

I probably should have PM'd that one... didn't mean to get off topic.

[al baby]

Let's just hope that it goes further west and hits camp casey full force

[kenth]

I saw the Mayor of N.O. speak yesterday and he made it clear that he didnt have the authority to order a mandatory evacuation, he said "That has to come from someone higher than me."

And the governor said it was up to him. The President, the actual President, had to get involved, not in reassurances of aid and cleanup, but to talk them into evacuation. I still can't believe it.

[abb]

Jefferson Parish Sheriff Harry Lee and other Jefferson Parish officials on WWL TV requesting M.A.S.H. units from neighboring state's national guard units.

[LadyPilgrim]

Awful thing is....they had no idea this would take place while on their happy vacation.

[Founding Father]

Hurricane Tutorial--FYI

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=19418

[bwteim]

Thanks. I also edified myself on that - see other reply.