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Posted on 08/27/2005 8:05:55 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings and watches are posted. Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast models continue to converge upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this very large and dangerous storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. There have been reports of coastal animals leaving in droves for higher ground. Meanwhile, New Orleans continues to suggest that residents evacuate.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida
Images:
New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait
Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop
Northwest Florida Long Range Radar
Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop
Other Resources:
Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics
Live streaming:
copy/paste into player:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Praying for a minor miracle--this would be a good one.
What happened to personal responsibilty? Blaming the Gov. and Mayor seems trite. A once in 50 years storm comes around and the arm-chair generals here have all the answers...
That being said, I'm watching....
http://www.superdome.com/site2.php
scroll down
That's what I was thinking. Get people to the airports. If nothing else, assemble people in spots where chinooks can start transporting people.
This thing will be a hurricane well inland. The weatherman in that 'net feed is clarifying that people who've headed north are still going to have to contend with 100+ winds. He urged people who've headed north to then turn east or west. There are still the people who live across MS who will contend with hours of hurricane force winds. This is going to be ugly.
Prayers for everyone in this monster's path.
"I heard that B$tch Mary Landrieu on CNN yesterday politicizing Katrina saying are National Guard is tied up in IRAQ,Whaaaaa!!! Boot her A$$ out of office please."
Honey, we are soooo trying! It's the democrat sheeple that keep them in office. That's why many have not evacuated. They only do what they're told because they're dependent on the government for everything (including thinking for them).
According to officials from Plaquemines Parish, the levees have never been tested against a Cat 3, so they're not counting on them even for that intensity.
Katrina is in the midst of a truly historic rapid deepening phase--the pressure has dropped 34 mb in the 11 hours ending at 7am EDT, and now stands at 908 mb. Katrina is now the sixth strongest hurricane ever measured in the Atlantic. At the rate Katrina is deepening, she could easily be the third or fourth most intense hurricane ever, later today. The list of strongest hurricanes of all time includes:
Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)
The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)
Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)
Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)
Hurricane Mitch (905 mb, 1998)
Hurricane Ivan (910 mb, 2004)
Katrina's winds and storm surge
Maximum sustained winds at flight level during the 7am Hurricane Hunter mission into Katrina were 153 knots, which translates to 160 mph at the surface, making Katrina a minimal Category 5 hurricane. The winds are likely to increase to "catch up" to the rapidly falling pressure, and could approach the all-time record of 190 mph set in Camille and Allen. Winds of this level will create maximum storm surge heights over 25 feet, and this storm surge will affect an area at least double the area wiped clean by Camille, which was roughly half the size of Katrina. Katrina has continued to expand in size, and is now a huge hurricane like Ivan. Damage will be very widespread and extreme if Katrina can maintain Category 5 strength at landfall.
Landfall projections
The computer models are very tightly clustered and have been so for almost a day. The data used to initialize the models is excellent, since all available hurricane hunter aircraft have been in the air continuously making measurements for several days. Katrina has already made her turn northward, which makes the task of landfall prediction for the models much easier. The offical NHC forecast of a landfall in SE Louisiana, on the western edge of New Orleans, is thus a high-confidence forecast. The spread in the landfall location is just 90 miles, meaning the eye of Katrina is very likely to hit somewhere between New Orleans and a point just east of the Mississippi-Louisiana border.
Intensity forecast
Katrina's intensity at landfall is likely to be Category 4, but could easily be Category 3 or 5. She will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle before landfall, and this will weaken her maximum winds by 20 - 30 mph for a 12-hour period. Additionally, some increase in shear is possible in the 12 hours prior to landfall, which could weaken Katrina's winds another 10 - 20 mph. If we are extrememly lucky, both factors will conspire to knock Katrina down to a Category 3 and she will hit at low tide. Given that the storm is so large and is already pushing up a huge storm surge wave in front of it, even a weakened Category 3 Katrina hitting at low tide will cause an incredible amount of damage. A stretch of coast 170 miles long will experience hurricane force winds, given the current radius of hurricane force winds around the storm. A direct hit on New Orleans in this best-case scenario may still be enough to flood the city, resulting in heavy loss of life and $30 billion or more in damage.
Dr. Jeff Masters
I took this info from www.weatherunderground.com.
I thought it was built to handle 200 mile per hour winds?
no, I think FNC may have been wrong then. it makes little sense for Bush to give a speech about the iraqi constitution today of all days. I hope he talks about Katrina.
yep sick feeling....
Looking at the video of the winds when Katrina went across, and some of the news reports the following morning showed the trees as bent in the wind as I have seen them in hurricane video. Then the flooding. Whew, some of those homes were isolated.
can anyone tell me if traffic on 49 has been reversed?
It has not, contraflow ends south of BR, which is crazy
Probably an economic decision. Since no one wants to fly in, empty planes coming in means a loss of revenue. Also, the airlines are probably repositioning all of their aircraft out of the area.
Strike probabilities of the center passing within 65 nautical miles of the following places published at 4 am and updated at 10 am CDT:
Was at 4 am New at 10 am Place 11% 12% Panama City 19 23 Pensacola 23 29 Mobile 26 33 Gulfport 30 38 Buras, LA 29 35 New Orleans 24 23 New Iberia 12 5 Port Arthur
good to know that--thank you.
"Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina.."
I do not think I have ever seen the NHC use this phrase before in my short, 22-year-old life......but they mean business when they use it.
This is deadly serious.
An "after Katrina" map of off-shore oil rigs remaining might prove to be interesting...
Wow, those are amazing photos.
I'm glad I am on the west coast after seeing all these back to back line of hurricanes.
Just heard much of Miami is still without power.
Best of luck to all as this thing approaches.
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