Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III

NHC-NOAA ^ | 27 August 2005 | NHC-NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Katrina continues to strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the forecast models are converging upon New Orleans. However, all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should follow the path of this storm, and be prepared for a major hurricane landfall. Throughout Friday, the official track forecasts moved west, as Hurricane Katrina delayed making the anticipated northwest turn.

The following links are self-updating.

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Buoy Data Florida
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

WFOR-TV Miami: http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live
WWL-TV New Orleans: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
HurricaneCity.com: http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
WTSP-TV Tampa: mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_jan032005_0856_78183
WKRG-TV Mobile mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_jul072005_1144_93320

Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

New Orleans local hurricane statement

[StAnDeliver]

Wunderground.com's Monday forecast for Grand Isle, LA:

"Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hurricane force winds. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 50 to 100 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Gusts less than 140 mph. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 90 percent."

[Spiff]

Here's the latest forecasted tracks overlayed into Google Earth and zoomed way in. I've labeled the coastal cities and towns in the projected paths. (1131 EDT)

BAMD=Green
BAMM=Red
LBAR=Yellow
A98E=Blue

[dennis1x]

because I read that the French Quarter will cease to exist.

the doomsday scenarios are all based on a storm coming from the ese. this one will be coming from the south...there is quite a bit of distance from the marshy southern coast of la and new orleans....will it be bad...obviously....but book your mardi gras plans.

[kinghorse]

WARNING AMATEUR WEATHER FORECASTER says:

I believe it's the reverse as pertains to cause and effect. The simple fact is in almost every year since I've been living on the SE Gulf Coast the weather is so benign that there's little resistance to influence a hurricane to go one direction or another. Where I live, the window of time between mid August and Mid September is characterized by a pronounced absence of weather, just dead air. Any moron could correlate the fact there is nothing but stagnant water vapor hanging around the Gulf big unpredictable hurricanes will result.

Who knows where this sucker's going. I predict the weather service finally gets humbled on this one.

[NautiNurse]

Buoy 42003 seems to be in the thick of things currently.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

Does anybody here know any nifty voodoo chants we can use to make this storm die?

Gunga galunga...gunga, gunga-galunga.

[Ellesu]

Thanks!

[AntiGuv]

My understanding has been that a ridge of high pressure northwest of the storm is what has been keeping it from turning to the north, and that the whole forecast model depends on how fast it moves west. So far, it's been moving more slowly than predicted, which is why yesterday I mentioned the storm could very well end up further east than forecast although it took longer to swing north.

This is because the ultimate trough that the hurricane will follow northward would not move as far west. So, instead of a smooth arc toward the northwest, it'll track more of a west-then-north right angle.

[LA Woman3]

Thanks! I'm afraid some people will be caught off guard by Katrina!

[spectre]

Well, that is encouraging.

I'm not booking anymore vacations. Still wondering if I'm going to Destin area around the 6th. We're booked in Bilo×i for the 5th...LOL, LOL...LOL. It could be worse..

sw

[kinghorse]

And yeah, I'm one of those guys who got to stand on the roof of his home in Shepherd Richmond area of Houston and watch as the eye of Hurricane Alicia passed over. That was a classic example of why these hurricane categories are not all that helpful or an accurate barometer of what the storm will feel like. I recall Alicia was a tough storm, a wall of blackness with lightning and wind driven rain.

[silentknight]

From Wright-Weather

NO:
http://abc26.trb.com/
http://fox8live.com/
http://wb38.trb.com/
http://www.wwltv.com/

Biloxi
http://www.wlox.com/

Mobile
http://www.wkrg.com/
http://www.wpmi.com/

[beyond the sea]

Wonder wat everyone did before there was such a thing as the National Weather Service

They observed the animals closely.

;-)

FR's info is the best, but those animals are very wise.

[beyond the sea]

She probably needs a good ...

lol...... gotta love those girl's in white uniforms.

;-)

[beyond the sea]

She probably needs a good ...

lol...... gotta love those girl's in white uniforms.

;-)

[Howlin]

I am in and out today........what is the latest we know, please, ma'am?

[highimpact]

The eyewall replacement cycle looks complete...the eye is now closed and well-defined.

[NautiNurse]

recon just reported increase in pressure while the storm is going through ERC. New Orleans has not issues evac orders while the lower LA areas are currently evacuating. N.O. should issue a presser within the next two hours.

[Dog Gone]

I've suggested to the creator of that overlay that he dump the horrible A98E computer model and replace it with the UKMET and add the GFS. He's working on it. It's a matter of finding it and making the link.

Stuff way over my head, but I sure like the end product...