Urgent Katrina Update: New NHC Forecast Direct Hit on New Orleans as a CAT 4

MHC | August 26, 2005

[janetjanet998]

Therefore...the official forecast brings Katrina to 115 knots...or a category four on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The GFDL is more aggressive and calls for 124 knots and 922 mb. The FSU superensemble is even more aggressive bringing Katrina to 131 knots.

track info HERE

[Schwaeky]

there may be congestion, but the road network is good enough that it can be evacuated really quickly if need be. With 10-15hrs notice on severe storm warning, evacs on the causeway, I59, I55 and US190 to the north, Airline Hwy and I-10 to the west as well as I-10 to the east, and that town can quickly become a ghost town.. those that can't or won't will be in deep doo-doo, but many more will evac if given the order, they're stubborn there, not foolish. But evacuation for that city is not a problem the infrastructure is there to quickly vacate..

[LibKill]

I have family there. They are evacuating and I advise all others to clear out as well.

[Schwaeky]

I thought most of the production in the state was in between Lafayette and Lake Charles....

[Schwaeky]

holy crap!!! Based on current dollar value and price growth, that puts regular unleaded at $3.25 a gallon!!!!

[montag813]

better fill your gas tank up...lots of oil rigs in the path...oil above $70/bar on monday?

Crude dropped $1.50 to $66 in the last 15 minutes Friday, setting up a nice buying opportunity Sunday night in the futures (Oct contract)

[topher]

Shutting in any refineries along the US Gulf Coast is bad news because Environmentalists have made it too costly to build new oil refineries. Oil refining capacity in the US is basically maxed out.

For that reason, gasoline supplies might be affected with the Labor Weekend rapidly approaching... The Mississippi [state of] Gulf Coast has refineries that might be shut in as well... And there are oil refineries North of New Orleans as well (at least North in terms of running along the Mississippi).

I once flew into Venice (South of New Orleans), but that was in the 1970's. I imagine the facilities you are talking about are North and East of Venice. And I am not familar with those...

Maybe Hurricane Katrina's legacy is that this storm might help to push gasoline prices nationwide over $3 a gallon.

[Guenevere]

From a Floridian who went through my share of hurricanes last year....

..your family is very wise to leave!

Travel mercies for all in it's path!

[Iowa Granny]

Hello! Prayers lifted for those in the path.

Hugs to you, dear FRiend.

[Guenevere]

Thanks!...:)

[Dog Gone]

My company is evacuating its rigs and platforms now. And it doesn't look like it will be a false alarm this time.

[Semper911]

thanks for posting these links.

Eastern US Weather is the better of the two. By far. I meant to mention that when I posted the links.

[operation clinton cleanup]

Do I sense a bit of anticipatory excitement at that prospect?

I rode out 4 major hurricanes in NC in th 1990's and it was exciting!

[raygun]

According to the 00Z GFS model, by 1900 28 Aug 05 (New Orleans time), 50 KT winds will be blowing out of the Chandeleur Islands directly into New Orleans. These winds will accelerate to 75 KTS by the time they blow through Vermillion and Atchafalaya Bays back into the GOM. I'm fairly confident that the storm's center will make landfall very near Golden Meadow (+/- 20 miles E/W) shortly after sunrise with sustained winds peaking at about 90 KTs. These would be eyewall winds, however they'll be very shortlived, the predominant windfield extending from the center will probably be closer to 80 KTs. That notwithstanding, and however, New Orleans can expect that for several hours (probably until sundown), winds steadily diminishing until by sundown Monday, Katrina should be just W of Hattiesburg with about 40 KTs.

NGP, on the other hand, shows Katrina making her way inland near Biloxi. The NGP model doesn't show the storm as tightly wrapped as the GFS model however. As a result, the windfield is pronouncedly dispersed over a greater area compared to the GFS model. Despite peak sustained winds projected to be merely 70 KTS, they'll extend all the way to Pensacola (and perhaps as far as Panama City), albeit significantly attenuated there. While NGP projects the storm to be centered over Jackson by sundown Monday, 40 KT winds will still be pummeling the Gulf coast to at least Mobile (and possibly as far E as Pensacola) even so winds over Jackson will be a mere 20 KTs sustained.

Nevertheless, and all that notwithstanding, at least 1" of rain per hour for the duration and area mentioned can be expected at a minimum Local areas of heavier rainfall is to be expected as squall lines move through the area. I wouldn't expect rainfall to be more than 1 1/2" per hour in any one particular area for any significant amount of time. While it may rain the equivalent of 3"/hr for about 10 minutes, it'll return back to the normal expected rate of 1" per hour. And that's going to go on for at least 12 hours (proably 18).

Looks like you guys are going to get a little wet down there (if 1 1/2' of water falling out of the sky in 1/2 a day can be called "getting a little wet").

[raygun]

ping to #93

[kalee]

self ping

[Sidebar Moderator]

Au revoir vous flânez mal.

[MARTIAL MONK]

Awwww shucks. As a sensitive lout I was going to send our new guest waterwings and a snorkel.

[Sidebar Moderator]

That was terribly thoughtful of you.

[raygun]

And so it begins (even if she is late):

(Slidell) KASD 290109Z AUTO 04012KT 10SM -RA FEW001 SCT016 25/23 A2963 RMK AO2 P0001

(New Orleans Intl) KMSY 290115Z 04021G26KT 10SM -RA SCT015 BKN046 OVC070 27/24 A2958 RMK AO2 PK WND 04032/0059 P0001

(Mobile) KMOB 290056Z AUTO 06013KT 9SM -RA FEW042 SCT075 SCT110 27/23 A2968 RMK AO2 RAB01 SLP046 P0000 T02670233 TSNO

(Pensacola) KPNS 290102Z 08011G21KT 9SM -TSRA SCT035 BKN049 BKN100 29/23 A2967 RMK AO2 TSB0056RAB02 TS S MOV N OCNLLTGCCCG P0000

(Apalachicola) KAAF 290106Z AUTO 11019G28KT 3SM -RA BR FEW016 SCT030 SCT036 27/26 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 10028/0057 P0007 TSNO

Strongest winds so far are reported by KMSY (21Kts out of 040 gusting to 26) with a close second at KAAF (19Kts out of 110 gusting to 28). You see how the winds accelerate out of Slidell (by almost doubling velocity in that short distance). From here on out its going to get interesting.