Posted on 08/26/2005 5:17:42 AM PDT by conservativecorner
An outbreak of Asian bird flu, which experts said yesterday is bound to hit the UK, could trigger an economic collapse similar to the Great Depression of the 1930s, two financial analysts warned yesterday.
In a lengthy research report titled An Investor's Guide to Avian Flu, Sherry Cooper and Donald Coxe warn that the food, tourism and insurance industries could be devastated in a relatively short time.
Lee Jong-wook: millions and millions of deaths The two analysts, who work for BMO Nesbitt Burns, a Canadian bank, said: "The combination of collapsing demand from China and India and the likelihood of a collapse in demand for housing and cars in the OECD nations would mean prices of base metals and steel would plunge." They also said companies would be hit by panicking staff and that "rates of both absenteeism and death would be sharply higher than should be necessary".
Yesterday, the World Health Organisation said it was stepping up its fight against bird flu by securing enough doses of the Tamiflu anti-viral agent to treat 3m people.
"If it hits, and we are unprepared, there will be millions and millions of deaths," warned Lee Jong-wook, the head of the WHO.
The risk of an outbreak has risen since the virus spread into Russia, although it has yet to be passed from human to human. Asian bird flu has killed 50 people since 2003, and forced millions of poultry to be slaughtered.
The two analysts said that the world would be better placed to deal with a new epidemic, since the internet could allow people to shop from the safety of their homes. They warned not to invest in IT shares though, because most IT companies rely on the Far East for their components.
If it ain't another half-wit trying to play economist.
The Great Depression was caused by a collapse in the stock of money by fully one third. Nothing else.
The notion that bird flue could cause a repeat is both ignorant and wrong.
The only time a major disease affected economic activity was the black plague and it caused prices to rise, not fall, and employment to increase, not fall.
Wiping out a large fraction of the population leaves more resources for the rest of us.
This article's just whooping at the moon.
Sorry,
I meant to begin with thanks for posting this.
Thanks.
The big difference between then and now is that we have a global economy to deal with when the next pandemic strikes. To say that there will be large scale disruptions of goods and services around the world is a huge understatement. Here's praying that we never find out who's right or wrong.
Is this a Babelfish translation, or are these people goofballs? How do you determine the "necessary" rates of "absenteeism and death," anyway?
BUSH'S FAULT!
Thank you for bringing these correct points up. The last pandemic had a death rate of 3% while this strain of bird flu has so far had a 50% death rate. I understand that these regions are rural and poor, but to say that industrialized nations will be immune to this potential pandemic is a terrible understatement.
THE SKY IS FALLING!
marking for a later read
Unique Right Freedoms? My grasp of German's not good, and never was.
Let's start with the simple stuff: the cause of the great depression and WW II. Please read Milton Friedman's MONETARY HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES, and then question me closely if you have questions.
I think you'll find a coherent explanation of both phenomenons: war and depression. If it's still not clear, we'll keep trying till we either agree, or agree to disagree. I have no axe to grind but accurate predictions.
Now, on to the effects of a radical, or extreme decline in the number of souls in the economy caused by some medical catastrophe. It seems obvious, both from simple theory and from the facts from the Black Plague that employment, income, consumption, savings, and investment (per capita) will increase. It's almost a tautology.
I'm puzzled why you disagree.
Like the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed about 50 million world wide (and was also spread by migratory birds), there is really no effective treatment of the H5N1 virus. In short, if this very nasty virus starts to spread among humans, the world economy is heading into total collapse. Read More About the Bird Flu? Russian scientists are claiming the Avian Flu may kill a more than one billion people.
Here is a Map showing how wide spread the Avian Flu is in Asia, Russia and Europe. And this has happened just since April, 2005. Birds travel fast and they do not have to stop for border inspections.
Of course, we are talking about 'worse case scenarios.' But the U.S. economy is on shaky ground already. (Learn More?) Katrina will probably devastate the U.S. economy. Already, thousands are feared dead. But huge storms are moving northward today. They will cause massive flooding throughout the east. How much will gasoline, diesel and heating oil be selling for in a month? $ 3.50 a gallon or $ 4.00? Your guess is as good as mine. High diesel prices mean higher transport costs for all goods; which means higher shelf prices. What happens when independent truckers start demonstrating? National economic shock and or malaise?
But what do I know, anyway? Just a geezer living in Oregon.
Been wondering about that. Got quite the petri dish for disease in general in the south right now.
The killer flu of 1915 caused the roaring '20. Wealth concentrated into fewer hands and prosperity was the consequence of that tragedy. Same thing with the black plague in Europe.
But I know this - these writers who are constantly trying to trash the economy with their wild gloom and doom stuff might succeed ... and that's sick.
Every where you look, "Doom and Gloom".
So what's the story? It's on the front burner on Fox today.
BTTT!
This is getting right up there with the giant killer meteor strike--the ELE.
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