WE'RE DOOMED, DOOMED I TELL YA!
Posted on 08/24/2005 6:06:17 AM PDT by minerboy
hink high gas prices are bad?
Get a load of what ex-oilman and ex-Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes are following closely behind:
"War, famine, pestilence and death," he said. "We've got to get the warning out."
The threat? Peak oil.
The term refers to the time when the worldwide production of oil peaks and begins a rapid decline. From then on, this incredibly efficient fuel source, which still costs less than most bottled water, will be ever more scarce and ever more costly.
Highly respected sources, including the U.S. government, think that day is distant, and most mainstream economists think it won't cause much of a ruckus.
But Deffeyes thinks peak oil is coming in November, and could bring humankind to the brink.
"It's been like pulling teeth to get public awareness," he said.
So who is this well-credentialed Chicken Little?
Deffeyes grew up next to gushing oil wells. He is a former petroleum geologist himself, having worked for Shell Oil for six years after earning a doctorate from Princeton.
He is a devotee of former Shell geologist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Deffeyes is also the author of "Hubbert's Peak" and "Beyond Oil: The View From Hubbert's Peak," which was published last spring.
He is among a cadre of peak-oil proponents who sketch out a frightening near-term future in which the American way of life is upended as the United States, China and great nations scramble after oil fields like desperate players in a game of musical chairs.
(Excerpt) Read more at statesman.com ...
Ex-professor conjures up he was fired, where as retired professor conjures up that he left on good terms. There's a Latin term for retired professors universities use that I can't think of right now.
The "shale" -marlstone--contains little kerogen-"oil" overall and you have to use a lot of energy to extract it from the rock. The spent shale is a horrible disposal problem---another problem is water availability for the processing . There isn't a lot to spare where the shale is---
BTT. Plenty of energy while we "fill the earth and subdue it."
ROFLMAO...need the "Not this **** again photo I think.
Oil has nothing to do with dinosaurs. Oil forms from microscopic marine algae that dies and falls to the ocean floor. As more sediment accumulates it gets buried. Pretty simple.
Anyway, in general it's a bad idea for people that don't have the foggiest idea of what they're talking about to argue with experts in their field. Might want to remember that.
Because the resivore engineer missed it. Because what they thought was a fault that would trap gas wasn't really. But the truth in my industry is that about 90% of all wells drilled produce much less than they originally esitmated. Because geologists and engineers want to be positive. Because companies want to book huge reserves to their P&L so that the stock price is good. You just don't find many wells that produce substantially more than was originally expected. It's almost always the opposite.
It's not a matter of mystery. It's a matter of science.
The fact that there were river beds and lakes 10,000 or more feet deep years ago just tell us that something catclismic happened to our planet at one time or another.
Well, I guess that is why one keeps a military and why Biush should NOT now tap the national oil reserve. Come armageddon, we could just take the fields we need, right.
---to all---Google "Tom Gold" for more on the oil-field replenishment theory---
We're not running out of oil at this moment, so the price would not be $650 a barrel. If we're at the peak, it only means we're at the maximum rate of production. The other side of the peak comes when demand outstrips that rate. The rate of consumption will not decline for the forseeable future, and will almost certainly continue its increase thanks to India, China, and, yes, our own consumptive needs.
This all hinges on the Saudi oil fields. They do not publish data on the wells. Researchers point to things like the increased use of water pressure to force oil to the surface as signs the table is getting low.
It could all be bluster. I'm skeptical of unprovable theories (at least unprovable until the actual event occurs), but I'm extremely confident that the price of a barrel of oil just doubled in the last 18 months after a decade of some extremely consistent prices. The Saudis are promising they can get capacity up to 15m barrels a day come 2007, but they're barely able to squeeze out 12.5 million today. The market is reacting to this uncertainty as proof that the natural supply is coming under stress.
So we'll see.
I agree.
Anyway, in general it's a bad idea for people that don't have the foggiest idea of what they're talking about to argue with experts in their field. Might want to remember that.
You'll need to repeat that on this thread a time or two I think.
That's the one!
LoL
Volkswagen Diesel Rabbit, in the early '80's.
A friend had one. The Owner's Manual stated that if the car did not get 50MPG, get it into the shop and see what's gone wrong!
It was an underbored 1100CC gas engine block, modified. Peculiar thing. In order to fine tune the valve and injector timing, there was no keyway on the timing chain gears. The was a conical bore to the engine sprocket that mated to a similar taper on the crank. When the timing was set correctly, one torqued the nut down, locking the taper. A "tooth" width on that diameter was too coarse to furnish accuracy.
Unfortunately what doesn't get noted on FR is that there are almost no petroleum geologists that take it seriously.
Tom Gold was an interesting and brilliant guy with many out-there ideas, many of which turned out to be right, and many of which turned out to be wrong.
You can't have a real doomsday without him preaching the end of the world as we know it and selling you the only means of salvation.
He must still be spending all those Y2K profits.
I'll take Daniel Yergin's expertise over this alleged expert.
I am so tired of hearing about an apocalypse scenario. I have heard this stuff my whole life.
Everything is going to be ok
We will find a solution to the problem and go on.
Otherwise not much we can do about it.
--exactly---
Jimmy Carter, the smartest man ever to be president, predicted oil would run out in 1980. That was only one of his many dismal mistakes as the worst president ever, so it's rarely brought up.
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