We've been running out of oil for more than 100 years. The fact that the reserves will not be completely exhausted for decades really does not comfort me if the price is $3.00 a gallon, and it certainly won't comfort me if the price goes to $5.00 per gallon or more in the next couple of years.
I doubt that there will be any significant relief from escalating prices until consumers reduce their consumption. It's supply and demand. If you're not bothered by the high prices, then the price will have to go up a lot in order to clear the market.
And there really isn't any limit on the amount that it could go up, except the unwillingness or inability of consumers to pay for it.
Right now the biggest factors are the consumption of fuel for the war on terrorism and the effect predicted US oil reserves vs. overall consumption two months from now (military, travel and heating) have on the futures market. Prices always this time of year. It's just that they don't normally spike so MUCH.
Don't know why Tucker would want to time his rehash of Peak Oil theory on the very day oil drops. It would have been sufficiently alarmist a week ago, but now it is just packing material.
The current price of oil has nothing to do with Hubbert's Peak. There is no issue whatsoever on the supply side, it's being entirely driven by the skyrocketing demand, especially in the U.S., China, and India.
There are "original oil in place" reserves. They become reserves when you find them.
There are "economically recoverable" reserves. They become reserves when the prices and technology arrive.
Alberta has more total hydrocarbon reserves than Saudi Arabia. Oil shale and tar sand.
Here is a fairly massive resource:
http://quasar.physik.unibas.ch/~fisker/401/oil/hubbheir.html#http://www.postcarbon.org/DOCS/2002/11/General-Knowledge-in-the-Post-Carbon-Age.delivered-edited.lecture-only.sans-Q&A.2002-11-10.pdf
A collection of scientific writings, supporting Hubbert
Are you or ever have you been a commodity trader, particularly vis a vis oil futures? Second question, are you receiveing compensation in any form from any such individuals?
5.56mm
"Passing over Hubbert's Peak doesn't mean we're "running out of oil." It means we're running out of cheap oil. Saudi wells, Caspian wells, Nigerian wells, Texas wells - all will continue to pump oil. But like Alice and the Queen of Hearts, we'll have to run as fast as we can just to stay where we are."
I was listening to Bob Brinker on Money Talk last Saturday and he said that with inflation the price of oil today would have to be $90/bbl to equal the price of 1990. The price of oil needs to be higher to make it profitable to exploit the abundant oil in the shales and sands in Canada and elsewhere.
The biggest threat brought to light by the present situation is the continuing threat of Communism. The Russians are faking and they have conspired with the terrorists to defeat us militarily and are trying to isolate us economically. They are rapidly expanding in Central and South America and the Islamists control much of the world.
The biggest threat is our own domestic Communists called Democrats. They are aided and abetted by their fellow travelers in the MSM, the unions, and in academia.
It seems foolish for them to ally with the Islamists as the Islamists hate them, too. However, each tolerates the other in order to defeat the USA. If they are successful, the Communists will simply eliminate the Islamists as they did their enemies in every other country they have conquered, Vietnam and Cambodia being the most recent.