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McCain leads at the start
The NH Union Leader ^

Posted on 08/11/2005 7:32:11 AM PDT by slowhand520

This better be an outlier. Why is he always in the lead?

THE EARLY FRONT-RUNNER. Two-and-a-half years before the 2008 first-in-the-nation Presidential primary, we have the very first poll numbers. They show 2000 GOP primary victor John McCain still the main man.

The American Research Group's numbers focus on the Republican side, showing the Arizona senator far ahead of the pack with the support of 39 percent of the likely voters in that primary.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich drew 14 percent, followed by Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 8 percent and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist at 5 percent, with Virginia Sen. George Allen and Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo each at 1 percent. According to the poll, 32 percent of likely voters are undecided.

Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel and Arkansas Gov. Mark Huckabee registered no support.

ARG polled 600 likely primary votes — 433 registered Republicans and 167 registered independents — Aug. 5-7. The poll had a margin of error of 4 percent.

Among Republicans, McCain drew 37 percent, while 26 percent were undecided, 19 percent favored Gingrich, 9 percent favored Romney, 7 percent favored Frist, and Allen and Tancredo drew 1 percent each.

Among independents, 47 percent were undecided, while McCain drew 45 percent, Romney 6 percent and Gingrich 2 percent.

Why take a poll on the primary so early?

Dick Bennett, ARG's president, said that in the past few weeks, "It's like someone flipped a switch. People are suddenly starting to become interested." And why not have an early benchmark?

Bennett is expected to have a Democratic poll soon.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Arizona
KEYWORDS: 2008; allen2008; gingrich2008; gopprimary; mccain2008; president2008; prezpoll; romney2008
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1 posted on 08/11/2005 7:32:12 AM PDT by slowhand520
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To: slowhand520

Rah, rah. Straight talk. McCain in... z-z-z-z-z.


2 posted on 08/11/2005 7:33:15 AM PDT by sinanju
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To: slowhand520

Pile of steaming bullsqueeze.


3 posted on 08/11/2005 7:33:48 AM PDT by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: slowhand520
showing the Arizona senator far ahead of the pack with the support of 39 percent of the likely voters in that primary.

Consider me in the other 61%!

4 posted on 08/11/2005 7:34:19 AM PDT by mozrock (I don't like people whose sources consist of their bodily orifices.)
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To: slowhand520
Its an outlier. The guy has screws loose in his head and he seems to have no use for the Republican Party let alone conservatives.

(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
5 posted on 08/11/2005 7:34:35 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: slowhand520

Funny. The libs think they can choose the next REpublican candidate.


6 posted on 08/11/2005 7:34:58 AM PDT by Fierce Allegiance (This ain't your granddaddy's America)
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To: slowhand520

Relax because it's too soon to pay much attention to any poll at this point.


7 posted on 08/11/2005 7:36:43 AM PDT by conservativecorner (It's a cult of death and submission to fanatics Larry!!)
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To: slowhand520

This could have only been written by someone who doesn't know any real Republicans. Sure, McCain will get the support of liberal Republicans, but that's it. And he will DRIVE conservative Republicans to the polls, just like he did in 2000.


8 posted on 08/11/2005 7:37:07 AM PDT by The Ghost of FReepers Past (The repenting soul is the victorious soul)
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To: slowhand520
Front runner?


Good. That means there is no where for him to go but down, and with a little luck he won't pull the rip cord when he ejects.



9 posted on 08/11/2005 7:37:18 AM PDT by G.Mason
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To: slowhand520

Only has name recognition. When "push comes to shove" in the Republican primary, people will remember his meltdowns during the Bush campaign and McCain/Feingold. He is a loose cannon and could be a Democrat instead of Republican.

10 posted on 08/11/2005 7:38:09 AM PDT by truthandlife ("Some trust in chariots and some in horses, but we trust in the name of the LORD our God." (Ps 20:7))
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To: slowhand520

The media is trying so hard to break conservative spirts.

Any poll now is nothing more than a popularity contest, polls ALWAYS change when the primary starts and the candidate's names get out more. McCain is only leading because most people know his name, that will change before the primary takes place.

A poll in 2005 is useless.


11 posted on 08/11/2005 7:39:36 AM PDT by RoyalsFan (Freepmail me if you want on my Kansas City Royals ping list)
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To: slowhand520

Interesting list of potential candidates... I like Newt the most.


12 posted on 08/11/2005 7:41:13 AM PDT by Kurt_D
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To: slowhand520
If it is McCain (McInsane), I will just stay over here in Slovakia, thank you.
13 posted on 08/11/2005 7:41:49 AM PDT by AlexW (Reporting from Bratislava)
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To: All

What's going to happen if Hillary Clinton and John McCain both decide NOT to run? A media break down?


14 posted on 08/11/2005 7:43:42 AM PDT by RoyalsFan (Freepmail me if you want on my Kansas City Royals ping list)
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To: G.Mason

"Good. That means there is no where for him to go but down"

Think about it. His name recognition must be 100%, best of the lot other than Gingrich (who is damaged goods). McCainiac ain't no Hillary, I think he will fade.


15 posted on 08/11/2005 7:44:11 AM PDT by FastCoyote
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To: slowhand520

Utterly ridiculous.


16 posted on 08/11/2005 7:44:33 AM PDT by Sloth (History's greatest monsters: Hitler, Stalin, Mao & Durbin)
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To: slowhand520

I'm more concerned that there are so many idiots that would vote for Romney.

McLunatictraitorthieffraud just has the name recognition.


17 posted on 08/11/2005 7:48:07 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (The warning time is 17 to 20, with 8-22 the likely kickoff.)
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To: RoyalsFan
Any poll now is nothing more than a popularity contest, polls ALWAYS change when the primary starts and the candidate's names get out more...

IMHO, your second point trumps your first. I believe that it is more of a name recognition contest at the moment. However, if we can use McVain as a stalking horse as the "front runner" to keep the media off the real candidate, I will not complain.

18 posted on 08/11/2005 7:48:27 AM PDT by RebelBanker (To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!)
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To: slowhand520

This is what the dimwits are hoping for.


19 posted on 08/11/2005 7:50:01 AM PDT by John D
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To: Kurt_D
I like Newt the most.

Newt Gingrich:

"Hillary has become one of the very few people who know what to do about health care."

20 posted on 08/11/2005 7:54:20 AM PDT by inquest (FTAA delenda est)
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