BULLETIN >> U.S. FEDERAL DEFICIT SHRINKS TO $53 BLN IN JULY

Dow Jones Big Charts.MarketWatch.com ^ | 8/10/05 | Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

[SierraWasp]

BULLETIN >> U.S. FEDERAL DEFICIT SHRINKS TO $53 BLN IN JULY

[BOBTHENAILER]

When will we hear the real story from Herr Krugman and Rubin?

Not in either of our lifetimes, unless of course the secret Clintoon files ever get opened.

[TheForceOfOne]

National Budget Simulation Game.

[SierraWasp]

"To each his own."

There we can agree!!!

[BOBTHENAILER]

I'm proud to say that Art Laffer was my Economics Professor when I was in Business School.

I would be too. You had one great Professor.

[expat_panama]

...post your favorite chart of federal deficits. Go for it. 

Thanks, and it's right on topic.  My favorite is the showing the burden of public debt on the economy.  OK, sure there's lots of Union freepers who'd rather have zero debt even if it meant we were all starving and bankrupt, but there's nobody here who's that stupid. 

I mean, who's more in debt-- someone earning $10 with a $1,000 loan, or someone earning $100,000 with a $2,000 loan.  Reality is what it is.  If taxes are cut, then the debt goes down.

The only thing that confuses me is why this has to be explained on a conservative forum.

[tanknetter]

The chart shows an expected lowering of the deficit (not sure why) followed by more increase.

The reason is pretty straightforward: the CBO's projections are based partly on their economic growth estimates.

I can'get to the cbo.gov site right now (getting timeouts), but the last time I argued this point I recall learning that the CBO had lowballed its economic growth estimates ... the estimates were somewhere down aroung 2.5-2.7%, rather than the 3%+ that we are currently seeing.

To be blunt, the CBO didn't really consider that the tax cuts would act to increase revenue by spurring economic growth. At least not to the extent that we are now seeing them do.

[mhx]

We agree. This is one of the several issues I cancelled my enrollment in the Republican party over. But I have to give credit where credit is due, and hopefully this will keep getting better and we'll get on the right track again.

[SierraWasp]

Congratulations! You did more to turn his attitude around than I ever could!! Excellent!!!

[Ken H]

From the looks of that chart it projected a deficit of (roughly) $415 billion for FY2005. From the article, it now looks like the annual deficit will be $350 billion. That's a $65 billion difference between reality and what that chart is showing.

Here are the debt figures from the Bureau of Public Debt:

08/01/2005 $7,869,521,621,947.05

Prior Months

07/29/2005 $7,887,617,581,195.58
06/30/2005 $7,836,495,788,085.86
05/31/2005 $7,777,880,152,594.89
04/29/2005 $7,764,537,337,364.14
03/31/2005 $7,776,939,047,670.14
02/28/2005 $7,713,137,673,664.71
01/31/2005 $7,627,742,597,775.41
12/31/2004 $7,596,165,867,424.14
11/30/2004 $7,525,209,508,979.45
10/29/2004 $7,429,677,448,545.04

Prior Fiscal Years

09/30/2004 $7,379,052,696,330.32
09/30/2003 $6,783,231,062,743.62

Looks like a debt increase of about $480 billion from 09/30/2004- 08/01/2005

[Huck]

See that? We found stuff to agree on. Look, I hope your optimistic outlook serves you well. I hope we get to set a better course than the one we're on, and then we can all be happy together. My outlook on it is different from yours, but believe me, it doesn't stop me from enjoying my life and making the most of it. I just don't find 53 billion down the sewer in a month as something to cheer about, but I guess that 10 billion they shaved off is better than nothing.

[Huck]

It's a point taken. Thanks.

[RATkiller]

The trade deficit was cut to $50. That was from 11:22:17 to 11:22:18 this morning.

[mhx]

Actually it's more than 50 bucks a second, isn't it? :_)

[Huck]

I think you misunderstood me. I said a chart of federal deficits.

[expat_panama]

Looks like a debt increase of about $480 billion from 09/30/2004- 08/01/2005 

Right, and at the same time Total Family Wealth increased by about $5 trillion. 

Now, I realize that there's lots of people who'd be willing to loose $10 just so they can have their debt reduced by $1, but that's dumb.

[Huck]

If taxes are cut, then the debt goes down

That's not true. The DEBT hasn't gone down at all.

[SierraWasp]

I'm not proud of the fact that I'm no longer a Republican, either. But I still vote like one! I quit for political reasons and reasons of principle and consistency. I was always a conservative first and a Republican second.

But kinda like your request for "better numbers," I can't find another party with the resources to make as big a difference as the Repellicans! I get so tired of getting nothing for my vote than "the lesser of two evils!" That's what made me so high on Reagan and helps me endure some of the disgusting things I see Bush do on occassion.

The one that REALLY disgusts me is Schwarzenegger!!! To me, he's enough to gag a maggot!!! He's benefiting from a recovering CA economy while having done much to thwart said recovery!!! But that's all another subject...

[inquest]

So if this happened after all these tax cuts, this has got to mean that spending was cut.

From the news blurb posted at #11:

"Receipts came in $1 billion more than expected, while outlays were $4 billion less than CBO projected."

Apparently, from this sentence, expenditures aren't simply determined by what's been appropriated by law, but by what's actually been spent by the various agencies. And that's often determined by the situations that the agencies are responding to. Also, revenues fluctuate as well. It's a little early to say that the GOP's turning over a new leaf here. After what they've done for the past four years, they'd have to work pretty hard to convince me of that.

[BOBTHENAILER]

It's so funny how the Clinton era surpluses are all explained away, but a slight dip in the Bush deficit is iron clad. These people are so emotionally attached. No ability to be objective.

Clinton never fought the war he should have (Iraq), never prosecuted the, MCI's, Global Crossing's, Enron's, etc., never had the 9/11 hit he could have prevented (est. $1.8 trillion economic hit), never faced sustained $6-8.00 natural gas prices, sustained $40-$60 crude prices, never faced up to his buddies dot-com bubble bursting, never did shit but claim credit for the spillover Reagonomics that fell in his SCUM stained lap.

Easy to forget the war wer'e fighting, both there and here at home.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Oh no....they must be right....I see this Bulletin on Marketnews.com....

BULLETIN >>

CRUDE HITS $65 EN ROUTE TO RECORD-HIGH CLOSE