Natalee Holloway - Case Discussion Extended Thread 12

P.S. And I didn't take it as "making fun". I have judges make fun of my theories all the time, but you have to play with the pieces on the board. I certainly would not want to defend these characters.

I think your synopsis is right on the money. I think they took her to the beach and Urine made a move on her while she was in a drugged state. She realized what was going on and lashed out at him, thus the black eye. He lost that famous temper of his and struck back. He probably hit her so hard that she then hit her head on something and it killed her.Remember, early on, there was a report by someone who saw a young woman on the beach very late that night struggling/fighting with two men. They panic, call daddy and the cover up begins. I dont think they intended to kill her but, I do believe one or two of them intended to rape her. It is a tragedy now made much worse by the utter corruption that is Aruba.

"why isn't Aruba, whether government or people, more bent out of shape about this? Apart from the impact on the tourist dollar, the working theory appears to be that there is either a murderer on the loose, or else one about to be released for lack of evidence. Of course, if "everyone" on the island knows she's gone, and that Aruba LE is going through the motions, then it makes sense."

Bingo. Didn't we have a troll early on asking 'why the fuss over this one girl?' Seems plain to me they make little to nothing of it because it's SOP. Just another day in paradise.

My kids play a lot of hockey in Appleton/ Oshkosh/ Fox Valley.

It was Deepak, no question. They said he turned pale and left the game.

"The surveillance tape being either broken or turned off at the time the boys said they returned NH to HI is just too coincidental."

Am wondering if somebody can answer some questions for me. The NH postings are so monumental (not to mention the other sites I've read) I can no longer go back and find things. 1) I believe I read that JVDS claimed at school the day after NH's parents arrived that he couldn't prove that they dropped her off because HI tape was non-existant. Is this a fact and if so, where is it reported? 2) The manager (or some dealer) from the Excelsior casino at HI is missing and can't be questioned. Do we know this as fact or rumor? Who reported it? 3) Joran has a line of credit at all casinos or HI Excelsior. I remember Beth in the interview with Greta from Birmingham saying something like this. Do we know anything about whether this is rumor or fact?

Initially, I thought that the 3 boys were lying to cover rape, having given her a date-rape drug, her accidentally dying from something they did but not having murdered her, etc. I still think her death was accidental, but now I have a new theory, but I need to find out if the 3 things above are just rumor or there is some back-up that lends credence to their being fact. Thanks!

I agree that it was probably Deepak. Here's a question:

Did Deepak get upset because he believed he might be caught, or did Deepak get upset because he knew he was about to be set up? With so few sustantiated facts we can only guess as to what that reaction means. If they could only find something else in that same area that points to the 3 boys committing a crime, I think we will all agree he was mad because he was about to get caught. As it is, we really don't know for sure. We all have our opinions, but we don't know. It's very frustrating.

There is merit in your line of reasoning. But to me, there is greater liklihood that she is dead, and that the body was disposed of in a way that will not turn up evidence. Also, much time lapsed when they falsely arrested the two security guards and did not do forensic testing on Joran and the brothers and all of the things that could have physical evidence in the case. Plenty of cleaning up and throwing away could have happened. Mark Fuhrman has spoken of this many times, how it was critical to get the forensics, and to properly interrogate these suspects, IMMEDIATELY, and that failure may have forever doomed this case.

Nancy Grace TRANSCRIPT for August 2, 2005, CNNHN

NANCY GRACE, HOST: Tonight, breaking news from Aruba. Judge`s son Joran Van Der Sloot back to police headquarters for more questions in the disappearance of 18-year-old American girl Natalee Holloway. Van Der Sloot has already changed his story two dozen times about the night Natalee went missing. And Natalee`s mom headed back to the states, but not staying long. Now, she`s getting back to Aruba to continue the search for her daughter. Good evening, everybody. I`m Nancy Grace, and I want to thank you for being with us tonight.

But first, breaking news in the disappearance of 18-year-old Alabama star student Natalee Holloway. Joran Van Der Sloot back to police headquarters for another round of questioning by Dutch authorities, so- called experts.

Sixty-five days ago, 6-5, Natalee went missing, the very last night of her high school senior trip, last seen alive in the company of judge`s son Joran Van Der Sloot.

With us tonight, in Aruba, Jossy Mansur. He is the managing director and editor of "Diario." In Atlanta, defense attorney Ray Giudice; in New York, defense attorney Richard Herman and psychotherapist Caryn Stark; also with us, WBMA-TV reporter Anastasiya Bolton.

Let`s go straight to Anastasiya. Bring us up-to-date, friend.

ANASTASIYA BOLTON, WBMA REPORTER COVERING STORY: Nancy, officials in Aruba, Dutch specialists, interrogated Joran Van Der Sloot today. They started early in the morning and went all day until 5:00.

They`re called behavioral specialists. They specialize in noticing and analyzing behavior and how a person answers questions. We also know that the FBI participated in the interrogation, as well. They were seen walking into the downtown police department where Joran was interrogated all day carrying Natalee Holloway folders.

We understand that there`s also going to be an interrogation going on tomorrow. As far as the results of the investigation, and the interrogation from today, we do not know what, if anything, they may have found out.

Another development: A hearing is going to be held tomorrow. Joran Van Der Sloot`s attorney is protesting the FBI`s involvement in this case. So we expect a judge to make a decision on that tomorrow, possibly later in the week.

Also, Natalee Holloway`s mother was going to go back to Aruba today but decided to stay home to take care some of things and will be going back tomorrow.

GRACE: Take a look at this newly released video. These are home videos of Natalee Holloway. What a little cutie bug. You know, it brings it all into perspective, this is the girl, still a little girl, barely...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NATALEE HOLLOWAY, MISSING GIRL IN ARUBA: (OFF-MIKE) and I`m sure you feel like one, too. And the beach was a blast. I had the best time of my life. And you know...

BETH HOLLOWAY TWITTY, MOTHER OF NATALEE HOLLOWAY: Are you properly buckled, Hootie? Oh, you`re not! You`re caught, OK.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRACE: You know what, this is a girl who was even worried, Caryn Stark, about having her seat belt buckled. She didn`t even want to drive in the car and break the law by not having her seat belt buckled.

CARYN STARK, PSYCHOTHERAPIST: That`s the saddest part, Nancy, as you see that, her mother is worried about her seat belt buckled. And now we know that she`s totally disappeared and likely dead.

GRACE: It makes the dichotomy very, very disturbing.

STARK: Painful.

GRACE: We`re showing you newly released video of Natalee Holloway. We know she loved dancing. Tonight, as we are heading toward the 65th day of her disappearance, let me quickly go Jossy Mansur with "Diario."

Jossy, this guy, Joran Van Der Sloot, has changed his story we know up to 22 times. Do you have any details of how he`s been changing his story?

JOSSY MANSUR, EDITOR, "DIARIO": No, I haven`t, because what we know is what you know is that he has been changing it. We don`t know the details of the changes. I know some of them that has been changed, for example, that he took the girl over to the beach and left her there, that he left her asleep on the beach.

On another occasion, he says no, he just left her on the beach to walk back to the Holiday Inn. On another occasion, still he says he left the girl because she became sick and he left her on the beach.

So those kind of changes to the same question is what I think people are referring to when they say that he`s changed his story about 22 to 24 times.

GRACE: Take a listen to this, Jossy.

OK, guys, hold on. Tell me when you get that sound, Elizabeth.

To Ray Giudice, bringing in Dutch behavioral specialists, well, I`m all for that. I think they should have done it 65 days ago. But the reality is, they need some hard questioning techniques, Ray. Behavioral specialists, that`s not even allowed in court.

RAY GIUDICE, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: No, it`s not, Nancy. But the thick I was very pleased to hear is that the FBI agents are going to be with these behavioral specialists during the questioning and, perhaps, if anybody`s got any sense, the FBI will have more than just a slight guiding hand into how this next interrogation is going to be done.

I`m all for anybody with a new approach, a new specialty, or a new study that can get to the bottom of this. Let this boy tell the story as many times as he wants.

Each time he tells the story, it offers an opportunity for a lead or a crack in a contrast with a prior version of the story. So again, the upside is, yes, they`re doing it, albeit late, but the FBI is there. And that really -- you know, if there is any upside to it, that`s it right there.

GRACE: OK. Let`s try that sound again, Elizabeth.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE "JUG" TWITTY, STEPFATHER OF NATALEE HOLLOWAY: If the story still stood, the night that I confronted the judge, so-called judge, and the son, and Deepak, and they sit there and told me that, "Yes, here`s what we did. We took her to the Holiday Inn. Come with me, we`ll show you. We`ll talk to the guards."

Of course, the guards had never saw them. It`s not on the video. They said that for nine days before they arrested them, that was the story. And then all of a sudden they changed the story. So why did they do that? The whole world knows that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRACE: Richard, very rarely will testimony or any evidence from a so- called behavioral specialist be allowed in court. That`s just like telling a jury, "Oh, I know he`s lying because he looked away, or I know he`s lying because he crossed his arm, because he fidgeted."

That may be anecdotal. We may think that as lawyers. But that is not the type of evidence that is allowed in court. What are they thinking?

RICHARD HERMAN, DEFENSE ATTORNEY: Nancy, I think this is strictly a political move by the Aruban authorities so they can say down the road they did everything they possibly could.

Van Der Sloot`s own attorney has said, "My client had said all he`s going to say." I don`t believe he`s answered any questions. I think there may be a team of people and they`re looking at him, and him sitting there looking back at them.

I`d like to know if he`s answering any of these questions, because I don`t think he is.

GRACE: To Paul Reynolds, joining us tonight. This is Natalee`s uncle.

Paul, have you heard whether there was any progress with Joran Van Der Sloot? I mean, didn`t his defense attorney say at the get-go today, "Well, he`s already talked to you guys several times. I don`t know if he has anything else to say"?

PAUL REYNOLDS, NATALEE HOLLOWAY`S UNCLE: Well, we don`t know what he said today. But certainly, we think that there`s information contained in the original interrogation records that holds some clues.

And you know, from the very beginning, when questioned after Natalee was first missing to later when they were first picked up, you know, we had the reports of the so-called confessions in the very beginning, back on June 10th, when they said the boys started talking. They said something bad happened.

I just have to think there are some clues in those answers. And, you know, we want them explored, and we want those pieces of the puzzle put together.

GRACE: You know, he`s right, Jossy Mansur. Jossy is with us from Aruba. He is with "Diario" newspaper.

Jossy, if you could recount that statement, that alleged statement, the statement then witnessed by four police officers, where Joran Van Der Sloot points the finger at a Kalpoe brother.

MANSUR: Yes, he did. They took him over to that place where he sat, to the north of the Marriott where he sat. He thinks that Deepak buried the girl`s body under the sand near the first fisherman`s hut.

Then when they continue to walk, at the end he told them, "I went with the girl to the beach, and I left her there. I walk back. And then Deepak went back to where the girl was lying on the beach."

And then they asked him, "What do you think happened between the two of them?" And then Joran answered very categorically, "I think that Deepak raped and murdered her."

GRACE: You know, Joran Van Der Sloot, the judge`s son, is not the only one that specialists need to re-question. What about his father? Take a listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE "JUG" TWITTY, STEPFATHER OF NATALEE HOLLOWAY: I met him the night I got here. He`s sickening to me. He`s a chicken. If he has nothing to hide, why is he running to his car? He makes my stomach turn.

You know, they say, "Like father, like son." Well, in this case, I truly believe that`s the case.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRACE: Back to Jossy Mansur. You know, Jossy, we`ve got many, many shots of Judge Van Der Sloot running away from questions. And if it`s like father, like son, why should we believe Joran Van Der Sloot has got a lawyer with him, his father, the judge, has been visiting him behind bars?

There you go. Why should Joran Van Der Sloot be any different from what we`re seeing right now?

MANSUR: You know, that`s a question very hard to answer, because we`re not inside the boy`s character. We don`t know how he thinks. What we do know is that he`s out of control with anger. He`s not a man that controls his anger.

At school, he`s been in problems many times. He`s been allowed to gamble at 17 years of age, to enter casinos, which is prohibited in Aruba. He`s been allowed to drink at all these nightclubs that we see him partying. He`s a party boy.

And I don`t know how they can serve him drinks, being 17 years old. So to compare the father with the son for me is very difficult. I`m not a psychiatrist.

GRACE: Back to Anastasiya Bolton, WBMA reporter. Anastasia, I understand the questioning will resume tomorrow morning.

BOLTON: Yes. We are told that the specialists from Holland are back tomorrow morning at the police department. That`s where the interrogation is taking place.

Joran is being held at the only prison facility. So it`s about a 30- minute ride downtown to the police department. That`s where he`s being questioned. And we`re expecting the FBI to participate in that questioning, as well.

GRACE: To Ray Giudice. Ray, you`ve handled a lot of criminal cases, everything from DUI to homicide. Just get real for a moment. What do you tell your guy when he is going in to be questioned by police?

GIUDICE: Well, I try to prevent him from talking, if I can. If they insist on talking, I`d like to go over the story with him as many times as I can on the critical parts. Not coach him, but make sure he knows what his story is and knows that it hangs together.

I can`t put words in his mouth, but I`ve got to prepare him for the type of questioning they`re going to get. You know, look, they`re going to play good cop, bad cop with him. And as you know, every variation under the sun of that, and now with this psychological evaluation that they`re doing.

But again this is a different story. You`ve got a 17-year-old kid. That`s not a hardened criminal. That`s not a person who`s used to being questioned or used to being on the spot. And I don`t think this kid`s ever had anything but things go his way, anyway.

So I think -- I`m surprised that, after 65 days, that good, seasoned investigators, if they had been on this job, I think they would have cracked it by now.

GRACE: Well, there`s the kicker, Ray.

GIUDICE: Yes, I agree.

GRACE: Could have, would have, should have, good, seasoned investigators.

GIUDICE: Absolutely.

GRACE: Richard Herman, Ray Giudice is soft-pedaling a little bit. The reality is, isn`t it true, your guy is looking at a murder charge, you`re not going to say, "Don`t speak. Whatever they say, don`t answer. Stick with the story you`ve already given. You`ve locked yourself in. You`re stuck with it."

Be honest, Richard.

HERMAN: Nancy, his jaw is wired. I don`t believe he`s saying anything other than his name. There is no body. There is no crime scene. There`s no DNA evidence. September 4th this cold case is going to freeze over. He`s going to walk out of that prison facility. I guarantee that.

GRACE: With us is Natalee`s uncle, Paul Reynolds. Isn`t it true that Natalee`s family believes the judge told his son "no body, no case"? As long as they don`t find Natalee, they think they`re going ride free.

REYNOLDS: We certainly think that is the story that he told his son. We think that it is really not true. We do think that there is information there. I think the boys have been talking.

I think those pieces of the puzzle can be put together. And witnesses are still coming forward. We`re still obtaining new information.

You know, it`s really unfortunate for his son that he`s giving him that kind of information, because what if there was an accident? You know, there`s a lot of speculation that something happened as a result of an accident.

Trying to protect his son in this manner is not going to help him move forward with his life, whereas he could come forward with the truth and let us know what happened, he would have a chance. I think the father has given his son very bad advice.

GRACE: Caryn?

STARK: Well, it seems to me, Nancy, that this is not at all a psychological evaluation in the true sense of the word. So people who are behaviorists are not psychologists.

And the other thing I want to say is the fact that he accused his friend tells me that he`s projecting. The story that he came up with of murder and rape, that might be something that`s inside of him, that he`s projecting onto his friend because he was there and did it.

I suspect it. I can`t say that that actually happened.

GRACE: Well, I can guarantee you this: If Natalee Holloway was raped and murdered -- remember the "Three Musketeers"? -- the law feels the same way, all for one, one for all.

We`ll be right back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BETH HOLLOWAY TWITTY, MOTHER OF NATALEE HOLLOWAY: We have been going through this since June 10th. What have I not been exposed to? What have I not been put through? Where has she not been? It`s been endless. You know, until I am shown definitively, of course I`m going to have hope that she`s alive.

B. TWITTY: And who`s our special guest today?

N. HOLLOWAY: It`s Hootie.

B. TWITTY: Hootie Hoo Holloway. Hi, friend.

N. HOLLOWAY: Just, you know, sitting in the back, cruising over to my place, and doing an excellent job. And I just want to say happy birthday. You know, you look like a new woman. And I`m sure you feel like one, too.

And the beach was a blast. I had the best time of my life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVE HOLLOWAY, NATALEE HOLLOWAY`S FATHER: The guarder indicated that they were on that road, right near the racquet club. And if they were down on the beach, possibly running back towards the racquet club, late at night, there`s a lot of mud holes and sinkholes, and that type of stuff, in that area. He could have possibly ran off into one of those and lost his shoes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRACE: Welcome back, everybody. I`m Nancy Grace. We are live in Aruba. And the search that goes on for Natalee Holloway.

To Jossy Mansur, with "Diario" newspaper. Jossy, what`s the latest regarding the search for Joran Van Der Sloot`s shoes? Now, didn`t he tell police he lost them that night? How do you lose your shoes?

MANSUR: He did say that he lost two shoes, blue and white, tennis- type shoes. But I want to show you a picture, if I can.

GRACE: OK. OK.

MANSUR: And I will hold it to my chest.

GRACE: Before we lose the -- hold on. OK, go ahead.

MANSUR: Look at Joran`s shoes here in this photo.

GRACE: OK. Zoom in, Liz.

MANSUR: Do those look to you like blue or white or tennis-type shoes?

GRACE: No.

MANSUR: They look like boots, no?

GRACE: They look like boots. They look like work boots.

MANSUR: Brown boots. OK.

GRACE: Now, wait a minute...

MANSUR: He was wearing those at...

GRACE: Was that what he was wearing the night Natalee went missing?

MANSUR: You know, so, Jossy, have you handed this over to police?

MANSUR: Yes, we have. We did so today. We hand everything over to the police, because I have total confidence in our police corps. I think they`re doing a good job.

I think that, in the beginning, there was some interference because they had some problems with the minister. But then everything fell into place. Now we have a new team working on this. And my confidence has not slackened in our police force one second.

GRACE: With us, Jossy Mansur with "Diario" there in Aruba. And cases have been cracked on things a lot less minor than a missing shoe, which leads us to the question, if the shoes don`t matter, why would he continue to lie about them? Do they hold evidence?

Very quickly, everyone, to "Trial Tracking." Today, up goes the reward for information on LaToyia Figueroa, five months pregnant and missing now 15 days. Now, $10,000 for information on her whereabouts, $90,000 for info leading to the arrest and conviction of anyone involved in her disappearance. It`s a total of $100,000.

Take a look. LaToyia Figueroa, mother of a 7-year-old little girl, disappeared after a doctor appointment. Police desperately searching the Philadelphia area. Still no solid leads on LaToyia.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTHONY WILLIAMS, LATOYIA`S FORMER BOYFRIEND: I`m not looking for a dead body. I`m looking for LaToyia. She`s alive. She`s out there somewhere. She needs our help. She`s coming home. She`s coming home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GRACE: Man, I pray she is. If you have any information on LaToyia Figueroa, please call the Philly police, 215-686-3183.

GRACE: One million dollar reward for Natalee`s safe return; $100,000 for info on her whereabouts. There`s a toll-free number, 877-628-2533.

Very quickly, to Natalee`s uncle, Paul Reynolds. Paul is joining us. Paul, he`s lying even about his shoes. Did you know that?

REYNOLDS: I just had heard that report this evening. You know, it`s just -- it`s another lie that he was telling. And it certainly gives the night a different meaning.

You know, it kind of sounds like he must have gone home, possibly with Natalee, after leaving Carlos and Charlie`s, and looks as if he changed his shoes he was wearing. But, again, we don`t know how the police got the report that he lost his tennis shoes to begin with. So there`s just many confusing aspects about his story.

GRACE: Well, confusing is one way to put it. Outright lies may be another way to put it.

Very quickly, back to Jossy Mansur with "Diario," Jossy, didn`t it come from Joran Van Der Sloot himself that he lost his K-Swiss tennis shoes that night?

MANSUR: He did. He said that to the police. He told the police that he lost his shoes over there and that he had to walk barefooted from the hotel to his house. That`s on the record with the police.

GRACE: Well, so, Richard Herman, long story short, if the actual shoes he was wearing were at the home or in the car, they`re long gone, Richard.

HERMAN: Nancy, I told you it`s pathetic. And in contrast to Mr. Mansur, I have absolutely no confidence in the police department in Aruba. They blew the case the first three or four days and Natalee went missing.

GRACE: Quick break, everybody. We`ll all be right back. We are live in Aruba

According to Magic 96.5 website the picture that Jossy Mansur was showing Nancy Grace last night was taken during SpringBreak March 2005, not May 29, 2005.

Picture of 2005 > SpringBreak @ Carlos 'n Charlie's

PICTURE 67/141

It was Deepak, no question. They said he turned pale and left the game.

Has it been revealed which Kalpoe brother was playing dominos yet? As of last week Jossy Mansur stated that he did not know which Kalpoe it was.

It was Deepak, no question. They said he turned pale and left the game.

my memory is not as good as it used to be..I thought Jossy reported he didn't know which brother..I do remember them saying the bro turned pale and left the game..thanks..maybe Deepak isn't that tough..21 is still young.

It looks like the two bros are sticking to their story that they left Joran on the beach with Natalee..but apparently since they are not in custody, they have not been questioned since the "gardener" witness and this new revelation of the three being together in the early am. has come to light.

Why haven't they been hauled in to answer to that new allegation or have they? Ineptitude? Can anyone be that stupid? Do their laws prevent them from questioning them again? That witness will kill the two bros pointing solely at Joran and make it so the less innocent(rape vs murder?)will have to point at the more culpable. In Aruba if one commits a felony and someone dies are they guilty of murder as in California? No plea bargains for information? Happens all the time in Calif..yea we robbed the place but he shot and killed the clerk...

Could that witness be a plant to take the heat off Joran and put it back on all three, backing Joran's "maybe" deepak did it?

I think what might have happened is that Joran and Natalee developed a romance over the course of a few days and Deepak was jealous. I remember seeing Joran's website before it was taken down and he seems to have been very popular with the young tourist ladies. Deepak may have been smoldering in jealousy for some time. Maybe if and when Natalee rebuffed him he thought it was because he wasn't white and it enraged him even more, as we often see race issues enrage people in the US. He proceeded to manhandle her and she died, probably by accident, and all three boys were bound in a conspiracy of silence.
Whatever happened I just don't see a death happening by anything other than accident. I know people here have pieced together rumors and innuendos and have come up with them being worse than Saddam Hussein, but I haven't seen any realistically believable evidence that these boys are murderous tyrants.

"Remember, early on, there was a report by someone who saw a young woman on the beach very late that night struggling/fighting with two men."

Please, can you remember where you heard this? The only witnesses on the beach I remember early on were the fishermen who said they saw a vehicle for about 40 minutes.

"They panic, call daddy and the cover up begins. I dont think they intended to kill her but, I do believe one or two of them intended to rape her. It is a tragedy now made much worse by the utter corruption that is Aruba."

I've always thought the same thing, but if it was an accident (that she died) why don't they just say so? Urine could always say they were 'just horsing around.' It wouldn't be the first time he lied!

I remember the story of the girl struggling on the beach but for the life of me cannot remember where. I suggest the first two threads of the Nat threads but what a chore to look thru!

I dont remember when that info. about seeing the fight occured but with 12 plus threads it is hard to keep track. Maybe someone can help us with that.It was way early though in the process.

" But, if it was an accident, that she died, why dont they just say so. "

I think Daddy made the decision to cover it up. He was thinking about his career and the civil suit that would surely follow, she being an American, and ALL the MONEY it was gonna cost him. I think he thought that it would just go away. But, he didn't expect Beth.

"I think Daddy made the decision to cover it up. He was thinking about his career and the civil suit that would surely follow, she being an American, and ALL the MONEY it was gonna cost him. I think he thought that it would just go away. But, he didn't expect Beth."

Agreed. Look at the Nancy Grace transcript. It appears Joran went home to change his shoes and even admitted to police that he lost them that night, saying he had to walk home barefoot when he left NH on the beach.

It's very distressing to hear someone say on Grace that Urine will walk come Sept. 4. Whatever he's done to NH, I hope he gets back infinitessimally.

I have a theory that she might have been brought to the beach only to be picked up by waiting strangers and shipped somewhere else.

Just a theory. Don't get alarmed.

Considering all the lies by Joran, it's as good a theory as any other. Of course, Joran isn't gonna say that this is what happened, if this is what actually happened, hence he had to say that he left her on the beach because she wanted to be alone. Did he lie about Natalee wanting to be left alone?

Drinking is not within the realm of "bad things happen," since it can be controlled. Lighting striking a person, otoh, is within the realm of uncontrollable.