Why would anyone want to calculate the odds of a strawman argument?
Strawman??
Oh; let's use EVOLUTIONARY DATA.
Try THIS:
What are the odds that Ichy's picture here is, indeed, illustrative of what actually happened?
What are the odds that F. Eoarctops eyehole will enlarge into E. Biarnosuchus big one?
What are the odds that E. Biarnosuchus eyehole will reduce into D. Spheracodon's small one?
What are the odds that D. Spheracodon's eyehole will enlarge (again) into C. Haptodus' HUGE one?