Why would anyone want to calculate the odds of a strawman argument?
Strawman??
Oh; let's use EVOLUTIONARY DATA.
Try THIS:
What are the odds that Ichy's picture here is, indeed, illustrative of what actually happened?
What are the odds that F. Eoarctops eyehole will enlarge into E. Biarnosuchus big one?
What are the odds that E. Biarnosuchus eyehole will reduce into D. Spheracodon's small one?
What are the odds that D. Spheracodon's eyehole will enlarge (again) into C. Haptodus' HUGE one?
"What are the odds that F. Eoarctops eyehole will enlarge into E. Biarnosuchus big one? "What are the odds that E. Biarnosuchus eyehole will reduce into D. Spheracodon's small one?
"What are the odds that D. Spheracodon's eyehole will enlarge (again) into C. Haptodus' HUGE one?
You don't seem to understand my response to the previous post. Evolution does not require any particular change to happen, just that any change that does occur not restrict the recipient's relative ability to reproduce. You are asking for a specific mutation to arise. That is not what evolution expects. You are putting your lizard behind the cart.
What is the probability that an organisms eye size will change? One. We see it happen in extant species.
What is the probability that the increased eye size will fix in the population? Unknowable in this specific case, one if we look at extant species.
What is the probability that the environment will change drastically enough to affect survival rates? One. We see it happening.
What is the probability that the decreased eye size will fix in the population? Unknowable, for a specific species but again one if we examine extant species.
A better question to ask is, What is the probability of three or more organisms, temporally sequential, environmentally sequential and have the centre species sharing multiple features including diagnostic features of either or both of its two neighbour species being related.
That, you will have to request from a biologist who has actually performed that calculation.
