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Bush Wins CAFTA But Loses Wider War
Oxford Analytica ^ | 07.29.05

Posted on 07/29/2005 7:57:25 AM PDT by hedgetrimmer

The House of Representatives today approved the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) in a vote of 217 to 215. The vote is a major victory for President George Bush and the Republican House leadership. However, it comes at the expense of increased partisanship and mounting disarray in the conduct and management of U.S. trade policy. Before the treaty comes into effect, ratification by Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic and Costa Rica is necessary, and this is not guaranteed.

The congressional debate over CAFTA has proved the most inflamed and controversial since the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1993. Economic arguments dominated the debate, with both sides exaggerating the impact. Left unstated in the congressional deliberations were more important political ramifications. The White House knew that a defeat would have eroded even further President George Bush's ability to enact the rest of his political agenda.

CAFTA supporters argued that rejecting the agreement, which had taken years to put together, would undermine the administration's credibility to pursue future free trade deals. They noted that foreign governments would not be able to negotiate seriously with the U.S. if the Bush team could not implement an agreement that provides significant economic and geopolitical benefits. While approval partially alleviates these fears, the very narrow margin of victory and hard-nosed terms of the agreement will impact the administration's mandate for negotiating future trade-liberalizing deals.

A key underlying problem for the administration is that the growing partisan divide in Congress over trade issues, particularly labor standards, provides traditional protectionist interest groups with considerable influence. The CAFTA vote is likely to force the administration to reevaluate its "competitive liberalization" trade strategy. While domestic politics may mean that free trade accords are still possible where U.S. trade is modest and labor conditions are not an issue, the administration's aggressive FTA program may now be stopped in its tracks.

The CAFTA debate in Congress has served as a proxy for deep concerns about the effects of trade agreements, along with record trade deficits, on U.S. workers. Polls showing that more than 50% of U.S. households do not support such trade initiatives buttressed the opposition of many Democrats. However, the same polls show that a majority of the U.S. populace supports deeper trade integration if they are given enhanced tools and training to compete effectively against foreign workers. Devising and implementing such schemes could be pivotal to prospects of reconstituting a bipartisan consensus in favor of trade liberalization.

The rancorous CAFTA debate will undermine the Bush team's ability to provide trade leadership and pursue its trade strategy. In the longer term, the sharp partisan divide over CAFTA underlines a fundamental schism over the direction of trade policy. Unless this divide can be bridged, U.S. leadership in favor of a liberal world trading system will be even more severely tested in the future.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Foreign Affairs; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: cafta; ftaa; hemispheric; integration; nafta; redistribution; wealth
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To: Tenacious 1
if that is all it does then why is it 3,700 long?

CAFTA gives alot of control over US trade policy to nameless, faceless bureaucrats at the WTO.

41 posted on 07/29/2005 8:36:27 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: William Creel
True modern conservatives

Whats a "modern conservative"?
42 posted on 07/29/2005 8:36:56 AM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: Tenacious 1

There is no post here that presents a ligitimate argument against CAFTA.
-----
** READ THE ENTIRE CAFTA DOCUMENT **
...and then explain WHY you are FOR IT, as opposed to taking a position, like most here (who obviously have not read it) that well, "IT CAN'T REALLY HURT US", or "IT IS A NET GAIN"... or some other rationalization for the fact that Bush has rammed it down our throats without explanation, discussion, and open talk. Just like the open border issue...

Rationalize all you want -- it won't change the facts. Read the CAFTA agreement before you stuff a cigar in Bush's mouth.


43 posted on 07/29/2005 8:37:57 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: William Creel
The Buchananite isolationist, protectionists.

Never thought of myself as any of those, unless they mean protecting our Republic, or our "borders, lanquage, and culture" ? Is that so bad to you?

* CAFTA is only the beginning. The Senate Republican Policy Committee policy paper admits that CAFTA's purpose is "integrating more closely with 34 hemispheric neighbors-thus furthering the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA)." Americans do not want to be "integrated" with the poverty, corruption, and Communism of our hemispheric neighbors!

* CAFTA will put the U.S. under another anti-American international tribunal. CAFTA includes hundreds of pages of grants of vague authority to foreign tribunals. The World Trade Organization has already ruled against the U.S. in 24 costly cases and even had the nerve to outlaw Utah's gambling ban. A NAFTA tribunal opened our highways to Mexican trucks even though they don't comply with U.S. laws.

* CAFTA would prohibit states from giving any preference to contractors in their state. Any Central American country could file a complaint.

* Under CAFTA, state legislatures would relinquish their right to regulate utilities, land use, and taxpayer-funded contracts. It forces us to use the "least trade restrictive" regulation and change our laws so they are "no more burdensome than necessary." Activist judges can make that language cover anything they want.

* * CAFTA will not give us customers for U.S. goods. The total wealth of the six countries in the agreement is about the same as New Haven, Connecticut. Half their population lives below the poverty line.

* The real purpose of CAFTA is "round-trip trade." This allows multinational corporations to exploit the abundance of cheap labor and the scarcity of taxes and safety regulations in CAFTA countries. CAFTA will increase our job-killing U.S. trade deficit and further weaken our already suffering dollar.
44 posted on 07/29/2005 8:38:03 AM PDT by Delphinium
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To: Porterville
It is amazing how often Bush wins but is still consider in a worse spot than before.

Well....you know how "morons" are. :o)

45 posted on 07/29/2005 8:38:24 AM PDT by eddie willers
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To: cambridge
Unions are agains it, Bush is in favor.

That isn't a good reason to favor or oppose anything. Informed voters will know the facts and support or oppose something accordingly. Read the CAFTA. If you need help understanding what it means, ask.
46 posted on 07/29/2005 8:38:47 AM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: 11th_VA

I think you are correct but there is more to come. Afterall the pubs have to be sure.


47 posted on 07/29/2005 8:40:17 AM PDT by winodog (We need to pull the fedgov.con's feeding tube)
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To: Brilliant
With CAFTA, investors will feel much safer about relocating plants and factories in CAFTA countries. The GOP staid as much in the debate, the CAFTA countries are just another cheap labor pool to be utilized by industrialists to avoid high labor counties like the usa.
48 posted on 07/29/2005 8:41:18 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: hedgetrimmer

My understanding is that free trade is what let the West rise and the lack of it is what doomed Communism.


49 posted on 07/29/2005 8:41:21 AM PDT by cambridge
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To: hedgetrimmer
Where are you getting your information on hemispheric integration as it applies to us? Also on the "sustainable development" thing, I fail to see how this is a problem unless I am missing the meaning of sustainable development.
50 posted on 07/29/2005 8:41:46 AM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: William Creel

You're pretty good at name calling, pretty poor at factual defense of your opinions.


51 posted on 07/29/2005 8:42:19 AM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: 11th_VA; lOKKI

I will be remembering this sell out of the middle class in 2008.


52 posted on 07/29/2005 8:42:23 AM PDT by TXBSAFH (The pursuit of life, liberty, and higher tax revenue (amended by the supreme 5).)
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To: Delphinium

Senate voted last month 54/45 or something like that R's yea, D's nea.


53 posted on 07/29/2005 8:43:40 AM PDT by jpsb
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To: Tenacious 1
What ideals? What are you talking about?

The idea that our federal government exists to protect individual rights, and not make a mockery of our Constitution, and erase our borders to integrate us with the rest of the western hemisphere so a bunch of transnational corporations can control global trade.
54 posted on 07/29/2005 8:44:28 AM PDT by hedgetrimmer
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To: hedgetrimmer

...However, the same polls show that a majority of the U.S. populace supports deeper trade integration if they are given enhanced tools and training to compete effectively against foreign workers...

They want enhanced tools and training to learn how to do roofing or yard work for five bucks an hour or less?

Learn to eat dirt, that's all the training you need.

Stupid sheep.


55 posted on 07/29/2005 8:45:51 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com (Google search CFR North American Community.)
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To: cripplecreek
It's starting to look like it's intentional.

Might help to explain the adoption of the K-Toon.

56 posted on 07/29/2005 8:47:03 AM PDT by Just A Nobody (I - LOVE - my attitude problem!)
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To: EagleUSA

Why? Because globalists make terrible Presidents, that's why.

Flame away, I'm long past the point of caring.


57 posted on 07/29/2005 8:47:22 AM PDT by Dazedcat
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To: jpsb

That would be true, except that the vast bulk of their exports to the US are not subject to significant tariffs anyway. That's not to say that it won't have any impact, but it would be minimal, and may very well be a net benefit to the US since most of those countries have very high duties on American imports.


58 posted on 07/29/2005 8:47:42 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: hedgetrimmer

The idea that our federal government exists to protect individual rights, and not make a mockery of our Constitution, and erase our borders to integrate us with the rest of the western hemisphere so a bunch of transnational corporations can control global trade.
-----
Kudos! Nice to see SOMEONE HERE GETS IT!!!


59 posted on 07/29/2005 8:48:37 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: cambridge
"My understanding is that free trade is what let the West rise and the lack of it is what doomed Communism."

Your understanding is incorrect, the usa for most of it history was a high tariff protectionest state, it is only recently that the usa has openen it's market to the world. And most of the "world" is still high traiff/protectionest including the fastest growing economies of China and India, Russia (10% growth) dido.

60 posted on 07/29/2005 8:49:38 AM PDT by jpsb
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