Posted on 07/21/2005 1:35:11 PM PDT by CHARLITE
China has replaced the Soviet Union in our lexicon of villains, and the age-old American preoccupation with the growth of this Asian giant has metastasized into full-fledged paranoia. But the truth is much more sanguine.
India, not China, is the coming giant of the 21st century. And India, unlike China, has no history of imperialism or inclination to global domination.
This year, for the first time, India passed China in economic growth. Its gross domestic product (GDP) shot up by more than 8 percent and now amounts to more than $3,000 per capita, on a purchasing-power-parity basis. China's GDP, about $5,000 per capita, is still larger, but not for long.
The key to China's coming failure and India's growing success is Bejing's dependence on manufacturing exports for its wealth and New Delhi's focus on its service sector.
This race to the bottom of the global economy will be won not by the lowest-wage economy but by robots. In the coming decade, the growth of robotics will end most manufacturing employment. Manufacturing will go the way of farming — a few percentage points of the global work force will produce all our products, just as it now grows the bulk of our food.
China's impoverished workers will lose out to American and Japanese robots, and the source of its economic growth with likely wither in the coming decades.
India assured its future power by switching away from the socialist economic model in the early '90s and has moved closer to a free-market system each year since.
(Excerpt) Read more at jewishworldreview.com ...
Char (:
Grandiose and true only if India can maintain its democracy while ousting the moron socialists who run the country.
Lets not get carried away....
I'll tell you one thing though. I visit India once every 6th month. When I went to Bangalore on May-2004 , a huge plot of marshy land was bought by a construction company to build a software park. Last time I visited , Jan-2005 , I saw dozens of building of 10-20 floors on that very plot. Thousands of construction workers , hundreds of bull dozers , cranes etc. all working in total harmony , in 12 hour shifts , working 24 hours , 7 days a week..come rain or shine...
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Just came across a blog posting on this last night. This article is pretty accurate in my opinion. Even the Indian socialists are not nearly as protectionist as they were in the 80's and 90's.
I have several problem with this piece.
1. Robotics have been touted for over three decades. The promise always exceeds the reality. Auto plants in every nation still have plenty of human workers. GM now imports engines from Red China, thirty years after robotics were announced as the wave of the future.
2. If China gets a dominant regional military advantage, she can use that as leverage with other regional powers, including India in a variety of ways.
3. Dick Morris is not a consistent liar. If he were consistent, you could just assume the opposite (like Elenor Cleft). Since he's inconsistent in the truth department, his credentials as an authority are nil. Global economics and industry is not exactly his field of expertise, either. The man is a pollster and political strategist.
4. The Chinese are learning English, too. Neither the Indians nor the Chinese speak it in a way that comforts a U.S. tech worker trying to get support on a router. Heck, I have trouble getting my order at the Dunkin' Donuts understood!
I have several problem with this piece.
1. Robotics have been touted for over three decades. The promise always exceeds the reality. Auto plants in every nation still have plenty of human workers. GM now imports engines from Red China, thirty years after robotics were announced as the wave of the future.
2. If China gets a dominant regional military advantage, she can use that as leverage with other regional powers, including India in a variety of ways.
3. Dick Morris is not a consistent liar. If he were consistent, you could just assume the opposite (like Elenor Cleft). Since he's inconsistent in the truth department, his credentials as an authority are nil. Global economics and industry is not exactly his field of expertise, either. The man is a pollster and political strategist.
4. The Chinese are learning English, too. Neither the Indians nor the Chinese speak it in a way that comforts a U.S. tech worker trying to get support on a router. Heck, I have trouble getting my order at the Dunkin' Donuts understood!
If this trend continues then U.S. techs may not in the future have any need for support for routers.
The problem with China's military is that it faces a range of formidable foes-Japan,Taiwan,India,Vietnam,the US & Russia(potentially)-none of these nations are pushovers & the Chinese military is still nowhere near reorienting it's military for the 21st century.India built it's nukes with China in mind & most of it's aerial & naval acquisitions are aimed in that direction.
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