Posted on 07/19/2005 2:54:49 PM PDT by CDB
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The rapid rise of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a regional political and economic power with global aspirations is one of the principal elements in the emergence of East Asia, a region that has changed greatly over the past quarter of a century. China’s emergence has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a peaceful and prosperous China, one that becomes integrated as a constructive member of the international community. But, we see a China facing a strategic crossroads. Questions remain about the basic choices China’s leaders will make as China’s power and influence grow, particularly its military power. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is modernizing its forces, emphasizing preparations to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts along China’s periphery. PLA modernization has accelerated since the mid-to-late 1990s in response to central leadership demands to develop military options for Taiwan scenarios. In the short term, the PRC appears focused on preventing Taiwan independence or trying to compel Taiwan to negotiate a settlement on Beijing’s terms. A second set of objectives includes building counters to third-party, including potential U.S., intervention in cross-Strait crises. PLA preparations, including an expanding force of ballistic missiles (long-range and short-range), cruise missiles, submarines, advanced aircraft, and other modern systems, come against the background of a policy toward Taiwan that espouses “peaceful reunification.” China has not renounced the use of force, however. Over the long term, if current trends persist, PLA capabilities could pose a credible threat to other modern militaries operating in the region. The PLA is working toward these goals by acquiring new foreign and domestic weapon systems and military technologies, promulgating new doctrine for modern warfare, reforming military institutions, personnel development and professionalization, and improving exercise and training standards. We assess that China’s ability to project conventional military power beyond its periphery remains limited. This report outlines what we know of China’s national and military strategies, progress and trends in its military modernization, and their implications for regional security and stability. But, secrecy envelops most aspects of Chinese security affairs. The outside world has little knowledge of Chinese motivations and decision-making and of key capabilities supporting PLA modernization. Hence, the findings and conclusions are based on incomplete data. These gaps are, of necessity, bridged by informed judgment. The PLA’s routine publication of a biannual Defense White Paper demonstrates some improvement in transparency. However, China’s leaders continue to guard closely basic information on the quantity and quality of the Chinese armed forces. For example, the U.S. Department of Defense still does not know the full size and composition of Chinese government expenditure on national defense. Estimates put it at two to three times the officially published figures.
We need good scares once in a while to keep us on our toes.
The F-18 simply has not lived up as a true replacement for the F-14's - (while the 18 is a great aircraft it does not replace the F-14 as needed) -
Hopefully the newer F-18F versions will out perform their specs -
Special thanks to Clinton's buddy at Loral for providing China with missile technology that has increased the accuracy of their warheads. I have a sneaking suspicion we'll regret that one day.
Of the many concerns we may have, lack of a superior air platform is not really one of them. I think many experienced aviators on this forum would disagree with your comments.
Fear is a greaat motivator.
Looks like the endgame is coming. May god keep his protection and mercy upon these great United States of America.
You know, there are knee jerk reactors on the left, and there are knee jerk reactors on the right. I would remind all (and no I dont work for Loral, and I have no love for Bernie Schwartz) that both Boeing and Loral were found to have acted improperly with regards to export control issues during the Clinton years. Loral has no business in missiles, only satellites. Boeing on the other hand...Hmmmm, can you say EELV?.
People need to realize that the old 'Blame it on Loral' thing is not going to change the situation, nor does it accurately reflect the failings of the previous admin to keep many high tech companies (SGI among others) from high tech tranfers to China. Loral was only easy for Cox to target politically because Bernie was a big Democrat contributor.
Either us or the Russkies will regret it. The eastern half of Russia is resource rich, has a low population, and is not heavily defended.
And I'm just as certain many (especially privately) would agree with me - the USN has been given the backseat treatment when it comes to having a superior air platform - We've decided to go with the F-18 on the cheap! (which has never been part of our strategic layout when it comes to air superiority in the past).
We are now more and more dependent solely on AWACS to offset our less then superior aircraft -
Again, just look at how the old F-14's have out performed the F-18's in both Stan and Iraq (in the F-18's primary role no less) -
18's simply don't have the legs to stay in the fight - And staying (and getting to!) the fight is half the battle.
You say 'We'. Are you a Hornet driver?
If so then you know what joint means, and you know we adapt tactics to maximize our effectiveness with the weapons systems we have.
No I am not - I'll have to go reread, must have been a typo on my part -
When it came to air superiority we used to always simply put the d*mn best aircraft into the air, piloted by the best pilots (while also encompassing the best radar, counter measures, etc) -
We did not do this with the USN - We decided to go on the cheap and try and replace the F-14 (hell the whole carrier wing) with differing F-18 models - And the F-18 models simply don't have the capabilities to do all these roles they are being tasked with - (as I said, F-14's are performing better at their SECONDARY roles than our the 18's at their primary roles in both Stan and Iraq).
I know the newer F-18F's are suppose to be a major upgrade. I hope this turns out to be the case.
No offense intended, and I hope you dont mind my saying, that at present, the Hornet has more combat flight experience than any other aircraft in the world. And that experience is worth a lot when the stuff hits. The Tomcat is a good platform as well, but each has roles that they play in the bigger battle picture. We try not to build systems that compete, but rather compliment each other to achieve the end goal.
Cheers,
Comments?
Not really! ;-)
But let me tell you that no body should compare the capablities of the US Armed Forces with any other country.
All countries have logistics nightmare and they can not handle their forces off their borders for a long period of time but we do.
China might be strong and advanced in terms of technology but our armed forces are more capable of doing the job.
History has proven this.
WW I, WW II, Korea, Vietnam, Panama, Many mideast conflicts, and recently Iraq.
We are able to handle Thousands of troops abroad for many many years while China can not do that!
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