Posted on 07/16/2005 10:53:39 AM PDT by janetjanet998
750 WTNT35 KNHC 161745 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELLED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES.
Hope you are right about the energy required to turn it.
It is going to be a long Summer.
TT
I'm supposed to leave Thursday to go to Houston...You know I'm watching this storm carefully...One mean storm...
Makes sense...
I'm going to Houston for a week starting tomorrow. I'm not worried about the 'cane, I'm worried about the rain. I'm tempted to call my hotel and make sure their parking area doesn't flood.
it did :)
heheh
I'm at least going to be north side of Houston by Tomball...I used to live in Pearland, and have had my share of 100 year floods!
Past 2 hours a more NW movement....also Taiwan about to get hit by a super typhoon..about the same strength of Emily
yep
one GOOD thing about it going through the Gulf of Mexico is that the water is relatively shallow.
one thing that killed Dennis just before landfall (killed being a relative term), is that it hit a wall of water that had been recently mixed up by TS Cindy and wasnt warm enough to sustain the Hurricane at 145 MPH. Also there was an eyewall cycle mixed in....
Is this another Gilbert?
Oddly enough, the Gulf Stream isn't in the Gulf of Mexico at all; it's called that because it comes out of the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Straits.
There IS something called the "Loop Current" in the GOM which forms a big loop bending north in the North Central GOM south of Louisiana; it has very warm water to a very deep depth. However, Emily isn't going to get anywhere near it.
Also, water currents have absolutely no impact on the track of hurricanes; they're steered entirely by wind.
Does anyone know if there is a correlation between the power of a storm and the track variance?
In general (with some exceptions) the stronger the storm the easier the track is to predict and the fewer number of huge deviations from track you get.
ok i get a 290-295 degree movement the past 3 hours
Thanks! Very informative.
This one is sounding like Gilbert - Hurricane Gilbert:
This hurricane hit on September 16, 1988. It was a Category 5 hurricane with winds as high as 160 miles per hour. It went through Jamaica, over the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico and came to the U.S. (Texas and Oklahoma) as a heavy rain storm. Damage in Mexico was many billions of dollars, and 318 people died.
Not to mention there just aren't any significant upper-level winds above it.
NHC has been using 290 as the motion today.
We're really talking about very small deviations and wobbles, when you look at a whole track the motion overall has been quite steady.
Oh thats just frickin great. Something to destroy mexicans homes that'll be bringing more here illegally. Thats just what we need........ NOT!
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