Not good. It looks like our third-world southern neighbors are in for a shot they could do without. Prayers for Mexico.
Posted on 07/16/2005 10:53:39 AM PDT by janetjanet998
750 WTNT35 KNHC 161745 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO CATOCHE...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELLED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES... 215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 480 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.
EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 937 MB...27.66 INCHES.
holy crizap...
:)
I have been waiting to say that all day :)
How often does that happen in July?
NEVER..dennis just last week had the lowest pressure in july of 930 mb...
Never. Not once.
This is now TWICE in a week.
water temps are way above average..thats why we are getting big storms already..more like August water temps then july,,water temps get even warmer in her path....it will weaken when it hits land but water temps in the western gulf are 87-89 degrees!! its over 85 degree water now...
I have a second home in Galveston. If this thing tracks even slightly north of the predicted path, I don't think the place will survive.
Dennis never made it to Cat 5..winds peaked at 150..although it was te strongest hurricane in july...until now
Category 5-- scary. Yucatan better get ready. Hopefully, crossing Yucatan will debilitate it seriously before it makes landfall again.
Hurricanes don't follow the lines that NOAA draws for it, this thing could still turn North.
I used to have a bunch of Hurricane Track Histories and Predictable is one thing they are not.
I am near Corpus Christi, we are preparing now, Fuel Water and exit plans, I am backing up Computers, Important Papers and Securing the House.
This is a very Rare and Dangerous Hurricane and it deserves a little extra preparedness. This isn't one that you can ride out.
Andrew almost got me in Louisiana and this one could be a lot worse.
TT
that would be nice..but....the Yuc won't hurt this thing hardly at all where it is going through.
Wow... The Yucatan's going to get plastered. Hope they're buttoned up down there.
Nope.
I honestly think this one was already a Cat 5 at the 11 AM report, but they didnt find anything at the surface. They had nearly 150 KT winds at flight level, which is Cat 5 strength...
Just think, this is just July. Maybe if the water gets roiled enough this early that it might take some juice out of the later part of the season....
At this point, it needs more than just a slight turn to hit Galveston. Most amateur observers and professional forecasters have all but dismissed the chances of Emily hitting anywhere north of Corpus. A couple days ago I was concerned that she would take a hard right turn in the Gulf, but the upper level systems look like they will block such a turn.
The models have been having huge shifts the past 2 days..2 days ago they were were south..then yesterday they all jump way north into TX..now way south again into mex....
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