Thunderclouds in China ... A Storm is Brewing ...

self | 15 June, 2005 | joanie-f

[RadioAstronomer]

Sorry for getting a bit testy. Earlier posts got my dander up. Sigh.

[RFEngineer]

"Not all of us are no-nothing armchair wankers"

Ok, wank THIS:

Since you are so knowledgeable, What is the coupling efficiency of a few kilometers of power line, versus a few feet of powercord?

What is the efficacy of power supply filtering from an EMP induced surge from a few feet of power cord?

Don't you know that a surge protector will protect from a surge built up in a few feet of power cord, just as well as a surge from a powerline?

ESD protection protects sensitive electronics from static discharges of thousands of volts, will an EMP exceed that, if so, by how much?

Radio front ends can and have withstood direct lightning strikes, with lightning protection installed and properly grounded. They do so every day, in fact.

Tell us some of the empirical data, when you get done wanking.

[Eva]

I just read a book based on the threat of an EMP attack by Soviets. I think that it was written before the end of the cold war. It was good reading, but I can't remember who wrote it, maybe Patterson.

[RFEngineer]

"Sorry for getting a bit testy. Earlier posts got my dander up. Sigh"

LOL...sorry about the wanking response. I got testy too.

I get what you are saying.....but you well know that the EMP energy is dispersed at the lower frequency spectrum where coupling efficiency is quite low within circuit boards.

[RFEngineer]

In the end, the real issue with EMP is the power grid. The power grid will largely go off-line, and certainly will break grid tie-points.

We need to figure out how to bring power grids up hot from a cold state more quickly. It is an incredibly complex problem, but one that can be solved, (and practiced).

That may be a good way to get new power transmission paths past environmentalists - use the "EMP" hardening argument.

Power companies, transmission companies would do well to preposition all the spares needed to make grid recovery a faster process.

On the other hand, if the EMP hysteria is correct, Best Buy is a good stock to invest in......all that consumer electronics will need to be replaced!

[Jeff Head]

Today's micro-electronics input/output pins are, however, protected intrinsic ESD circuity; typically fast clamping diodes to ground and the Vcc or Vdd supply rails ... this works surprising well in practice AND is an under-rated factor in most 'predictions' performed by arm-chair EMP analysts ...

That ESD circuitry is not designed specifically with EMP in mind at all. It is designed with the manufacturing process and then real world usage in mind, and is not tested for or designed in consideration of EMP events.

Since it is not designed to those standards and expectations, it can not reasonably be expected or assured to provide protection during it.

I know of know commercial manufacture who would claim, or even hint, that their ESD protection would definitvely hold up in an EMP event...and I worked for several years at Micron Electronics here in Idaho.

The specs and standards that the equipment has to comply with are different for the two events and you can add a third set in for lightning protection. For ESD, generally they are: IEC-1000-4-2; levels 1 to 4 (contact discharge) and RTCA-160 D; section 25. For EMP they are: MIL-STD-461 C: requirements CS 06, CS 10, CS 11, RS 05; IEC-1000-4-4; and RTCA-160 D; section 17. For lighting suppression they are: IEC-100-4-5; levels 1 and 2, and RTCA-160 D; section 22.

Although there are similarities, the two events have intrinsic differences which make it difficult to make any definitive claim without design and testing considerations to the respective specs.

[Jeff Head]

oops...sorry, that should be I know of NO commercial manufacturer ho would claim, or even hint, that their ESD protection would definitvely hold up in an EMP eventw.

[Gritty]

Is there a statute of limitations on Treason?

[RadioAstronomer]

http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec06.pdf

See page II-6-28. I have to be careful what I post.

Here is an interesting gif:

https://atiam.train.army.mil/soldierPortal/atia/adlsc/view/public/4794-1/fm/24-18/24180140.gif

See page 524:

http://www.princeton.edu/~globsec/publications/effects/effects11.pdf

Also see table 11.32.

[Jeff Head]

Very well said Joanie. The threat cannot be cavallierly written off or ignored.

I believe we would certainly survive it, and would still have the capability to respond overwhelmingly, but I believe we would be hurt severely by it and that in all probability would be followed up immediately with nuclear mssiles targeting our cities and installations, and military movement abroad to attempt to capitalize on the surprise.

Still, as I said, I believe at this point, that a devestating response would be forthcoming from our Trident subs particularly, and from our other forces as well. You can bet any enemy is factoring all of that in when contemplating such a move. It is what keeps them at bay. They are not likely to act and play to this glaring strength unless they have discovered something or intend something to also reduce that reality. I rpay they never do.

[RadioAstronomer]

In the end, the real issue with EMP is the power grid. The power grid will largely go off-line, and certainly will break grid tie-points.

Heck, a good CME event will do that. :-)

We need to figure out how to bring power grids up hot from a cold state more quickly. It is an incredibly complex problem, but one that can be solved, (and practiced).

I would hope that is already in place.

On the other hand, if the EMP hysteria is correct,

And it may be all hysteria. However, not from the folks I worked with.

[RadioAstronomer]

I think I will stay off the EPM threads from here out.

[Jeff Head]

Exactly!

[RadioAstronomer]

Ummm... thats EMP you idiot. LOL!

[Jeff Head]

PLease reconsider...your input is valuable and insiteful.

[hosepipe]

Thats true Bill (and HILLARY) Clinton sold us out to the eastern hemisphere(China basically)..

But whats happening NOW is Bush is selling us out to the WESTERN hemisphere(illegals and Cafta).. WHILE many eyes are watching the eastern hemisphere.. pretty smart of him/them actually.. Bush is just Bill Clinton with family values..

America is being SOLD in a hundred ways.. hand over fist.. and MOST are in denial, even here at FR.. Which MEANS IT WILL HAPPEN...

Short of a revolution, WE'RE SCREWED..

[joanie-f]

Jeff, thank you, as always, for adding your informed opinions to this thread. They are never emotion-driven, but always fact-based and well considered.

RFEngineer …

Your original post cites many sources that could be less than defensible when you consider how gov't funded research dollars are handed out.

It may seem like nit-picking to you, but working in a government-funded lab does not lend itself to the same kind of bias as being a member of a government homeland security team that is charged with the oversight of something extraordinarily important … and then admitting that that ‘extraordinarily important’ entity is not being properly monitored, nor is its potential integrity when under assault being properly addressed.

I worked in the nuclear science industry (in fuel element design/development) back in the seventies, for a company that was under contract to the government. Sure there were people there who would sell their own mother down the river to procure or keep a government grant. But the huge majority of those people (probably ninety-five percent) were what I would now call patriots, and I’d like to think that ratio still holds in such an industry.

While I respect your apparent knowledge of the subject (although would debate some of your solutions), I believe that you are, in some ways, proving my point (and the point of the many respected, unbiased so-called Chicken Littles whom I referenced in the original essay …and still more that have been referenced on this thread by other FReepers).

No matter how you believe our electronics-based control systems, sensors, communication systems, protective systems, computers, etc. would be affected by a high-altitude EMP strike, very few on this thread believe that we are entirely prepared for such an attack, and most agree as to the Clinton administration’s contributions to China’s (and others’) satellite/missile/sub capabilities. The debate, instead, centers on whether the PRC would launch such an attack, our degree of preparedness regarding the consequences, our degree of preparedness regarding an effective response, what would be required to achieve preparedness, and the funds and manpower that would be necessary. I believe that policy changes – some of them controversial (as have been the responses on this thread) and considerable study and expense would have to be borne.

As a result of my own personal research, I believe the PRC has the ability to launch such an attack, but would only use it under very limited circumstances, and I also believe that we are nowhere near sufficiently protected.

I also believe that we have to take first things first. In order to save American lives, and preserve American sovereignty, our first focus regarding EMP must be the hardening of our most sensitive and most necessary systems (or proof of the fact that they are already sufficiently hardened) – namely our communications infrastructure, including satellite and airborne intelligence, navigation and targeting systems.

And our (close) second focus needs to be the expansion of our ballistic missile defenses. The Navy’s AEGIS fleet must have the ability to shoot down any (especially ship-launched) missile capable of generating an EMP strike. And we must already have at our disposal (as opposed to intending to produce) properly hardened equipment and repair parts – especially switching systems, high-voltage transformers, generators and turbines, etc. -- which will be needed to repair systems capable of being damaged by such a strike.

No matter one’s beliefs on the magnitude of the threat, or our capability to withstand it, this is one case in which it cannot hurt to be ‘too prepared’ … and it most definitely will hurt to find ourselves not prepared enough.

Am going to be off-line for the rest of the weekend, but, even though I don’t agree with much of it, thank you for your obviously informed insights and opinions.

~ joanie

[BraveMan]

I think may posters would agree it would be best if I stayed off [INSERT TOPIC HERE] threads from here on out . . .

[Chode]

In principle, even a new nuclear proliferator could execute such a strike. In practice, however, it seems unlikely that such a state would use one of its scarce warheads to inflict damage which must be considered secondary to the primary effects of blast, shock, and thermal pulse. Furthermore, a HEMP attack must use a relatively large warhead to be effective (perhaps on the order of one mega-ton), and new proliferators are unlikely to be able to construct such a device, much less make it small enough to be lofted to high altitude by a ballistic missile or space launcher.

my contention is be afraid of china/russia doing it but not NK/Iran etc.

[RFEngineer]

From this source:
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/mctl98-2/p2sec06.pdf
page II-6-28.


"The technologies used to harden against HEMP are essentially those used in the area of electromagnetic compatibility and electromagnetic interference; they are internationally available."

In other words, many many commercial systems, from plasma TV's to computers to cellphones already employ some of these design characteristics.

Additionally, from your other link:
https://atiam.train.army.mil/soldierPortal/atia/adlsc/view/public/4794-1/fm/24-18/24180140.gif

1,000,000 Watts per square meter seems like a lot, but to put it in perspective, this is in close proximity to the blast. The power density degrades rapidly with the square of distance.