Hurricane Emily winds 155 mph, pressure 937 mb
She's passing just south of Jamaica
Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
These types of situations are very easy to forecast, outside intensity... The strong ridge to the north only gives one path of least resistance.
There is a supposed correlation to landfalling systems in that part of the world, and this. It's a little too complex for me to understand though...
Nevertheless, if Emily becomes a cat5, I think this will be a first (2 cat 5s at once).
I'm on dial up so the images take forever to load but thank you for that one for sure. WOW. Powerful, dangerous and beautiful all at the same time.
5 days out and they were very accurate.
For this reason and how well they did with Dennis, I think the 5 day forecast of Mexico landfall will prove accurate or close.
Ive certainly began to put much faith in the NHC 3 day track.
Granted, living 300 miles inland I can afford to do that.
Those on the coast probably shouldnt relax until landfall.
Once in the GOM its too close to take any chances.
...well, does it look like it will eventually make landfall in the US, or fizzle out? I can only tell you about earthquakes, living here in So. Cal !!!*wink*
Ditto here!
Powerful, dangerous and beautiful all at the same time.
Isn't that always the way? Something so beautiful can leave such ugliness in it's wake.
It won't be anywhere but Cancun by Monday, so you're not going to get out of work that day.
If you don't wash away before then! More squalls coming your way, started here about 3 this morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Emily continues to intensify. The satellite presentation of the storm is spectacular, showing a small hurricane with good symmetry, well-defined spiral bands, and a healthy-looking circular Central Dense Overcast (CDO) covering the storm. The eye is large for such an intense hurricane, 13 nm in diameter, and the storm does not appear close to an eyewall replacement cycle. These usually occur when the eye diameter reaches 10 nm or less. Pressure falls of 1-2 mb per hour and continued warming of the eye have been observed by the Hurricane Hunters, and it appears that Emily is not done yet with its current deepening phase.
Can Emily become a rare Category 5 storm? It has a ways to go. The central pressure in a Cat 5 is typically 920 mb or less, and Emily's central pressure is 941 mb as of 11:15am EDT. Emily's winds at 10,000 feet were 170 mph sustained, which normally would support a surface wind of 150 mph, very close to Category 5 winds (156 mph or greater). However, the winds measured near the surface by dropsondes were lower, about 145 mph. If Emily can maintain its current deepening phase another 12 hours, which I believe is likely, she will attain Category 5 status tonight.
Where will Emily go? Up until this morning, Emily had been on a steady WNW track of 285 degrees. This track has now shifted slightly further northward the past six hours, and is now 290 degrees. Assuming Emily stays on this track the next 36 hours, Emily will make landfall late Sunday night very near Cozumel and Cancun. The global models show no major uncertainties in the steering currents affecting Emily over the next 36 hours. Only minor wobbles in the track (like we've seen already for both Dennis and Emily) are likely to affect its course. This will keep the center about 50 - 100 miles south of Grand Cayman tonight, which will not suffer a repeat of the terrible blow Hurricane Ivan delivered last year. Ivan brought Category 4 hurricane winds to the island damaging or destroying over 95% of all the buildings. Emily is likely to pass far enough south tonight to bring only Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane winds. Still, this will be a harsh blow for an area still years away from recovering from the $3.5 billion in damage from Ivan.
Emily is at its closest point to Jamaica, and lies about 100 miles south of Kingston at noon EDT. Kingston has reported only light rain and maximum winds of 20 mph thus far. Wunderblogger JamaicanMike is also reporting light winds and moderate rain. Jamaica appears to be escaping this one unscathed!
Emily is likely to strike Mexico's Yucatan as a Category 4 hurricane, perhaps even a Category 5. What can we expect the effect on Mexico will be? Cozumel has the unfortunate distinction of experiencing a strike by the most powerful hurricane of all time--1988's Hurricane Gilbert. Gilbert struck Cozumel Island and Cancun as a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds estimated at 170 mph. A storm surge of 15 - 20 feet occurred near and north of Cancun. Damage to Cancun alone was estimated at $80 million. Overall, Mexico suffered a total of over $2 billion in damage and 202 people killed. Most of the deaths and damage came not in the Yucatan, but in Monterry. Gilbert crossed the Gulf of Mexico and struck the Mexican coast south of Texas, bringing torrential rains of more than ten inches to the mountains surrounding the Monterry area. The current official NHC forecast puts Emily in a similar location by Wednesday. The exact location of the landfall in the Gulf of Mexico will depend critically on the timing and strength of a small trough of low pressure that is forecast to swing across the northern U.S. on Tuesday. The global models have been consistent at keeping the amplitude of this trough small, which means that the threat to the Texas coast north of Corpus Christi is quite small. However, the timing of the trough is more uncertain, and will greatly influence the final landfall location of Emily. If the trough is quick to pass, a high pressure ridge will build in and force Emily further south. A slower-moving trough could draw Emily further north and bring a landfall near Brownsville, Texas.
Dr. Jeff Masters
These slow moving storms have been dumping some nice totals on Tx all the way up to DFW if you are under one. And we have more on the radar now. I have recieved nearly 2.5" in a week.
They were quite a site here yesterday evening, towering cauliflower looking storms surrounded by blue skies. I should have taken some pictures, one looked like a volcanic eruption.
The Yucatan had better buckle up, a Cat 4 or 5 is in their immediate future.
My B up a tiny bit from yesterday 29.83 was 29.8. Rain today hurricane toworrow?
Yes, last couple of years they are been pretty damn good a long range forecasting. New super computer?
I think we got our first measurable rainfall early this morning, but have had showers since mid week. Sun had finally come out, well sort of. :)
...Extremely dangerous category four Emily strengthens further as it passes south of Jamaica...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Chetumal to Cabo Catoche...including Cozumel and the islas mujeres.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward to the Belize-Mexico border.
At 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti is cancelled.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...and the southern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 78.0 west or about 135 miles... 215 km...southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 295 miles... 480 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the center of Emily south of Jamaica this afternoon and near Grand Cayman island tonight.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased near 155 mph...250 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily a strong category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next 24 hours...and Emily could become a category five hurricane at times.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may occur in gusts in rainbands along the coasts...with possible sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially above 3000 feet.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 937 mb...27.66 inches.
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands...with some 1 to 3 inch amounts possible over southeastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rains will be diminishing over the western portion of Hispaniola this afternoon.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...16.4 N... 78.0 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...155 mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
155 mph, 937 mb--can't get much closer to Cat 5 than this without going over.
As good as the TPC forecast as been, they certainly never thought it would get this strong.
Hurricane Emily winds 155 mph, pressure 937 mb
She's passing just south of Jamaica
Hey,
I just checked this page with Kingston weather update.
Doesn't look like they're feeling it at present, except for rain.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
Cancun Radar:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
Here's another Jamaica weather site:
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