Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:
NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.
NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET
Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)
Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop
Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions
The hurricane force winds are extending much further out with a 15 mile increase in the past 2 hours.
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily continues to strengthen... a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 15.6 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 180 miles... 285 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 440 miles... 705 km...southeast of Grand Cayman. Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially above 3000 feet. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb...28.05 inches. Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Repeating the 5 am AST position...15.6 N... 75.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 950 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am AST. Forecaster Stewart $$ |
Thank you for the update, this is a very strong storm, 140mph wind, at what point does it become a cat 5?
Tropical Storm: 34-63 kt (39-73mph)
Huricane Cat 1: 64-83 kt (74-95 mph)
Huricane Cat 2: 84-96 kt (96-110 mph)
Huricane Cat 3: 97-113 kt (111-130 mph)
Huricane Cat 4: 114-135 kt (131-155 mph)
Huricane Cat 5: Greater than 135kt (155 mph)
Love the Dolly Parton tornado on your profile page.
Air Force recon data near 06z indicated the central pressure had fallen to 953 mb...and a 700 mb flight-level wind of 131 kt...or 118 kt equivalent surface winds...was observed in the northeast quadrant during the outbound leg. Given that the 15 nmi diameter eye has cleared out nicely since the recon flight...and that ODT values over the past 1.5h have been t6.5/127 kt...the intensity for the advisory is being conservatively increased to 120 kt. The impressive outflow pattern also continues to improve. The initial motion remains 285/16. Emily has been on a 285 degree heading for the past 48 hours...and I see no indications that that motion should significantly change any time soon. Upper-air data at 00z indicates 24-hour 700-400 mb heights across Florida have increased by about 20 meters. This would suggest that...at least in the short term...Emily should continue on its current motion and pass more than 60 nmi south of Jamaica later today. Beyond that... the models are in reasonable agreement on Emily making landfall along the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. By 72 hours...a fairly vigorous shortwave trough currently approaching the U.S. Pacific northwest is forecast to dig east-southeastward into the central U.S. And weaken the subtropical ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This may allow Emily to briefly move more northwestward...before turning back toward the west as the shortwave trough moves quickly away from the area and allows the ridge to build strongly westward. Location of a second landfall is diffcult to predict at 96 hours...but the most likely area appears to be from southern Texas to northeastern Mexico. The eye is embedded in the center of a nice round CDO...and with warmer water ahead of the cyclone and very favorable outflow...the only inhibiting intensity factors should be eyewall replacement cycles and land interaction. Emily is expected to lose about 30 kt as it passes over the Yucatan...but it could regain category 3 strength due to 29-30c SSTs over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a very favorable outflow pattern. Forecaster Stewart Forecast positions and Max winds initial 16/0900z 15.6n 75.8w 120 kt 12hr VT 16/1800z 16.3n 78.3w 125 kt 24hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 81.5w 120 kt 36hr VT 17/1800z 18.9n 84.7w 120 kt 48hr VT 18/0600z 20.3n 87.6w 115 kt...inland over Yucatan 72hr VT 19/0600z 23.1n 92.9w 90 kt...over southwest gulfmex 96hr VT 20/0600z 25.0n 97.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 21/0600z 26.0n 102.5w 35 kt...inland over nrn Mexico $$ |
Heh, I wish there were more pictures of them
I have always been amazed at the power of nature, I can sit on my back porch and watch a thunderstorm for hours.Wouldn't it be great if we could harness that energy?
That pic is awsome, WOW!
Wow, I am impressed, never seen anything even close to that on the upper Texas cost, or even at port A.
my b is holding steady this am at 29.8 up a tiny bit but not much.
Question, when/if you have a moment.......as one who folows these hurrican thread casually over the years, I don't believe I've seen the term "Eyewall replacement cycle" until this year. Does this represent some new thing into how the storms behave..a more cyclic nature of the ebb/flow of their ctrenght?
it is a common thing with really strong storms. the eye wall gets tighter and tighter (smaller) and at certain point it becomes so small it can not handle the air that needs to be sent aloft at that point a new (larger) eye wall forms and within this new eye wall is the old eye wall, the old eye wall gives way to the new eye wall but the process weaken the hurricane for a bit until the replacement cycle is complete. then the hurricane quickly regain strenght until then next eye wall replacement cycle (if any) occurs.
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily beginning to pass south of Jamaica ...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to Port-au-Prince.
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of Emily.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near latitude 15.9 north... longitude 76.5 west or about 140 miles... 230 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 395 miles... 635 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km. For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially above 3000 feet.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb...27.96 inches.
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...15.9 N... 76.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 947 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Beven
Good morning! Does anyone sleep on this thread?
I just order the book about the 1900 Galvaston storm, Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson. I think it will be good reading for next week as Emily enters the GOM.
;o)
Good morning!! Wonder what will happen today. Can't tell you how much I enjoy all the hard work everyone does on these hurricane threads. Am praying for you guys in Texas, from the very dry western NY area!!
Thank you for the explanation on eye walls that even I can understand (your post #674). I've been wondering the same as Ken.
000 WTNT65 KNHC 161212 TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 944 MB AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN
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