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Hurricane Emily
NHC-NOAA ^ | 13 July 2005 | NHC

Posted on 07/13/2005 7:11:21 PM PDT by NautiNurse

Hurricane Emily resources--the links are self-updating for handy reference:

NHC Hurricane Public Advisory Updates Currently published every three hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET.

NHC Hurricane Discussion Updates Published every 6 hours 5A, 11A, 5P, 11P ET

Caribbean IR Loop

Caribbean Visible Loop (Only works during daylight hours)

Puerto Rico Long Range Radar Loop

Hurricane Track Forecast

Hurricane Model Projections

Emily Forecast Track Archive Loop Great for reviewing the 3 day and 5 day historic track positions




TOPICS: Extended News
KEYWORDS: emily; hurricane; hurricaneemily; weather
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To: NautiNurse

The hurricane force winds are extending much further out with a 15 mile increase in the past 2 hours.


661 posted on 07/15/2005 11:11:55 PM PDT by RGVTx
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To: All
Hurricane Emily Advisory Number 22

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on July 16, 2005


...Dangerous Hurricane Emily continues to strengthen...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to
Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am AST...0900z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 15.6 north... longitude 75.8 west or about 180 miles...
285 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 440
miles... 705 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to  70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  950 mb...28.05 inches.

 
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 
Repeating the 5 am AST position...15.6 N... 75.8 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 950 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am AST followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am AST.

 
Forecaster Stewart

 

 
$$


662 posted on 07/16/2005 1:34:39 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: neutrality

Thank you for the update, this is a very strong storm, 140mph wind, at what point does it become a cat 5?


663 posted on 07/16/2005 1:49:28 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: eastforker

Tropical Storm: 34-63 kt (39-73mph)
Huricane Cat 1: 64-83 kt (74-95 mph)
Huricane Cat 2: 84-96 kt (96-110 mph)
Huricane Cat 3: 97-113 kt (111-130 mph)
Huricane Cat 4: 114-135 kt (131-155 mph)
Huricane Cat 5: Greater than 135kt (155 mph)


664 posted on 07/16/2005 1:53:05 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: neutrality

Love the Dolly Parton tornado on your profile page.


665 posted on 07/16/2005 1:56:09 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: neutrality
Hurricane Emily Discussion Number 22

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 16, 2005

 

Air Force recon data near 06z indicated the central pressure had
fallen to 953 mb...and a 700 mb flight-level wind of 131 kt...or
118 kt equivalent surface winds...was observed in the northeast
quadrant during the outbound leg. Given that the 15 nmi diameter
eye has cleared out nicely since the recon flight...and that ODT
values over the past 1.5h have been t6.5/127 kt...the intensity for
the advisory is being conservatively increased to 120 kt. The
impressive outflow pattern also continues to improve.

 
The initial motion remains 285/16. Emily has been on a 285 degree
heading for the past 48 hours...and I see no indications that that
motion should significantly change any time soon. Upper-air data at
00z indicates 24-hour 700-400 mb heights across Florida have
increased by about 20 meters. This would suggest that...at least in
the short term...Emily should continue on its current motion and
pass more than 60 nmi south of Jamaica later today. Beyond that...
the models are in reasonable agreement on Emily making landfall
along the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. By 72
hours...a fairly vigorous shortwave trough currently approaching
the U.S. Pacific northwest is forecast to dig east-southeastward
into the central U.S. And weaken the subtropical ridge across the
northern Gulf of Mexico. This may allow Emily to briefly move more
northwestward...before turning back toward the west as the
shortwave trough moves quickly away from the area and allows the
ridge to build strongly westward. Location of a second landfall is
diffcult to predict at 96 hours...but the most likely area appears
to be from southern Texas to northeastern Mexico.

The eye is embedded in the center of a nice round CDO...and with
warmer water ahead of the cyclone and very favorable outflow...the
only inhibiting intensity factors should be eyewall replacement
cycles and land interaction. Emily is expected to lose about 30 kt
as it passes over the Yucatan...but it could regain category 3
strength due to 29-30c SSTs over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
and a very favorable outflow pattern.

  
Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      16/0900z 15.6n  75.8w   120 kt
 12hr VT     16/1800z 16.3n  78.3w   125 kt
 24hr VT     17/0600z 17.5n  81.5w   120 kt
 36hr VT     17/1800z 18.9n  84.7w   120 kt
 48hr VT     18/0600z 20.3n  87.6w   115 kt...inland over Yucatan
 72hr VT     19/0600z 23.1n  92.9w    90 kt...over southwest gulfmex
 96hr VT     20/0600z 25.0n  97.5w   100 kt
120hr VT     21/0600z 26.0n 102.5w    35 kt...inland over nrn Mexico

$$


666 posted on 07/16/2005 2:00:34 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: eastforker

Heh, I wish there were more pictures of them


667 posted on 07/16/2005 2:05:21 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: neutrality

I have always been amazed at the power of nature, I can sit on my back porch and watch a thunderstorm for hours.Wouldn't it be great if we could harness that energy?


668 posted on 07/16/2005 2:15:08 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: eastforker

Yes. http://205.243.100.155/photos/Lightning/Lightling_Kane_Quinnell.JPG


669 posted on 07/16/2005 2:27:41 AM PDT by neutrality
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To: neutrality

That pic is awsome, WOW!


670 posted on 07/16/2005 2:38:04 AM PDT by eastforker (Under Cover FReeper going dark(too much 24))
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To: Battle Hymn of the Republic

Wow, I am impressed, never seen anything even close to that on the upper Texas cost, or even at port A.


671 posted on 07/16/2005 3:13:50 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: nwctwx

my b is holding steady this am at 29.8 up a tiny bit but not much.


672 posted on 07/16/2005 3:14:58 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: STARWISE; All

Question, when/if you have a moment.......as one who folows these hurrican thread casually over the years, I don't believe I've seen the term "Eyewall replacement cycle" until this year. Does this represent some new thing into how the storms behave..a more cyclic nature of the ebb/flow of their ctrenght?


673 posted on 07/16/2005 3:18:41 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050

it is a common thing with really strong storms. the eye wall gets tighter and tighter (smaller) and at certain point it becomes so small it can not handle the air that needs to be sent aloft at that point a new (larger) eye wall forms and within this new eye wall is the old eye wall, the old eye wall gives way to the new eye wall but the process weaken the hurricane for a bit until the replacement cycle is complete. then the hurricane quickly regain strenght until then next eye wall replacement cycle (if any) occurs.


674 posted on 07/16/2005 3:50:26 AM PDT by jpsb (I already know I am a terrible speller)
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To: jpsb
Hurricane Emily Intermediate Advisory Number 22a

Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on July 16, 2005

 
...Dangerous Hurricane Emily beginning to pass south of Jamaica ...

 
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and for all of the
Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.  Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

 
A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the
eastern Yucatan Peninsula later today.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the entire southwestern
peninsula of Haiti from the Dominican Republic/Haiti border to
Port-au-Prince.

 
Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean should
monitor the progress of Emily.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Emily was located near
latitude 15.9 north... longitude 76.5 west or about 140 miles...
230 km... south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 395
miles... 635 km...southeast of Grand Cayman.

 
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Emily is a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
possible during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds now extend outward up to  70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 150 miles...240 km.  For Jamaica...hurricane force winds may
occur in gusts later today along the coasts...with possible
sustained hurricane force winds at higher elevations...especially
above 3000 feet.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is  947 mb...27.96 inches.

 
Emily may produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over
Jamaica with maximum amounts of 15 inches over mountainous terrain.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 8 inches is possible over the Cayman
Islands with lesser amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

 

Repeating the 8 am EDT position...15.9 N... 76.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...140 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 947 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

675 posted on 07/16/2005 4:48:26 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Good morning! Does anyone sleep on this thread?

I just order the book about the 1900 Galvaston storm, Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson. I think it will be good reading for next week as Emily enters the GOM.


676 posted on 07/16/2005 4:54:11 AM PDT by twin2
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To: twin2
lol--the thread was pretty quiet for a weekend night. Let me know how the book turns out...

;o)

677 posted on 07/16/2005 5:00:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse ("I'd rather see someone go to work for a Republican campaign than sit on their butt."--Howard Dean)
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To: NautiNurse

Good morning!! Wonder what will happen today. Can't tell you how much I enjoy all the hard work everyone does on these hurricane threads. Am praying for you guys in Texas, from the very dry western NY area!!


678 posted on 07/16/2005 5:08:00 AM PDT by nuclady
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To: jpsb

Thank you for the explanation on eye walls that even I can understand (your post #674). I've been wondering the same as Ken.


679 posted on 07/16/2005 5:11:34 AM PDT by daybreakcoming (May God bless those who enter the valley of the shadow of death so that we may see the light of day.)
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To: NautiNurse
10 mph from a Cat 5. 944 mb. Wow.

000 WTNT65 KNHC 161212 TCUAT5 HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAS FALLEN TO 944 MB AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH. FORECASTER BEVEN

680 posted on 07/16/2005 5:21:54 AM PDT by No Blue States
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